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Oil slide continues | FTSE needs to hold above 5700 | 7535 5826 resistance | 5640 support

#1 · 22nd April 2020, 9:49 am

Quote from Nick on 22nd April 2020, 9:49 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 22nd April 2020
Global shares drop as oil prices fall
US oil prices remain under pressure after turning negative for first time in history
Trump: US government to “make funds available” for oil companies
Data shows UK unemployment barely changed during February
Oil-price turmoil gripped traders again yesterday, a day after US crude futures crashed below zero for the first time as the coronavirus crisis crippled global energy demand and worsened a supply glut. The commodity rout also sent world equity markets spiralling lower, as investors fretted it could compound an expected deep global economic downturn.
The FTSE 100 fell 2.96pc to 5,641.03 while the 2.68pc dropped 2.68pc to 15,399.25. In the eurozone, the German DAX dropped 3.99pc, while the French CAC lost 3.77pc.
Oil
The oil price collapse is deepening. Just a day after U.S. crude futures for May delivery plunged below zero for the first time ever, June futures plummeted 43%, closing below $12 a barrel in New York. A massive supply glut brought on by the pandemic and a worldwide shortage of storage space have sparked a rout that has shifted the entire forward curve for oil. The meltdown spreading across global oil markets has already wiped out tens of thousands of jobs and frozen billions of dollars in capital spending, and threatens to further cripple economies around the world already reeling from coronavirus-fueled lockdowns. Storage tanks, pipelines and tankers have become overwhelmed by a vast oversupply brought on by an unprecedented plunge in global fuel demand.[Bloomberg]
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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The S&P has defended the daily support (25ema) at 2730 and we have seen a small bounce from there. Oil's turbulence continues to weigh on the market also and provides signs of potential bigger hits to the global economy, though Trump has pledged support. If the S&P can hold that 2730 level for the moment then we may well see a rise towards the 2 hour resistance at 2845, but a break below will likely lead to the 2657 level where we have the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel.
For the FTSE today, I think we may well see a rise to retest the 2 hour resistance levels that we dropped off yesterday at 5735. These are at similar levels for today as well, along with the coral now red at 5741. There is a cluster of lower resistance levels just below this at the 5720 area as well, the bulls will have their work cut out to push higher and as such we may see an initial dip from this area towards yesterdays closing price and the key fib at 5640 before we spring back up. A similar pattern to the ASX200 in fact.
If the bulls do push past the 5740 level then we should be on track for 5826 again where we have R2 and also start to look for further upside towards the 5950 level. That looks quite key and of that were to break we should see a decent push past 6000, though not today.
For the bears, should we break below the 5640 support then a test of the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 5485 currently would probably occur and that would tally with the S&P sliding towards the 2650 level.
So, some key tiger picture levels to look for but for today looking at 5640 for support initially and 5720 to 5740 as resistance. Good luck today.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 22nd April 2020

Global shares drop as oil prices fall
US oil prices remain under pressure after turning negative for first time in history
Trump: US government to “make funds available” for oil companies
Data shows UK unemployment barely changed during February

Oil-price turmoil gripped traders again yesterday, a day after US crude futures crashed below zero for the first time as the coronavirus crisis crippled global energy demand and worsened a supply glut. The commodity rout also sent world equity markets spiralling lower, as investors fretted it could compound an expected deep global economic downturn.

The FTSE 100 fell 2.96pc to 5,641.03 while the 2.68pc dropped 2.68pc to 15,399.25. In the eurozone, the German DAX dropped 3.99pc, while the French CAC lost 3.77pc.

Oil

The oil price collapse is deepening. Just a day after U.S. crude futures for May delivery plunged below zero for the first time ever, June futures plummeted 43%, closing below $12 a barrel in New York. A massive supply glut brought on by the pandemic and a worldwide shortage of storage space have sparked a rout that has shifted the entire forward curve for oil. The meltdown spreading across global oil markets has already wiped out tens of thousands of jobs and frozen billions of dollars in capital spending, and threatens to further cripple economies around the world already reeling from coronavirus-fueled lockdowns. Storage tanks, pipelines and tankers have become overwhelmed by a vast oversupply brought on by an unprecedented plunge in global fuel demand.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The S&P has defended the daily support (25ema) at 2730 and we have seen a small bounce from there. Oil's turbulence continues to weigh on the market also and provides signs of potential bigger hits to the global economy, though Trump has pledged support. If the S&P can hold that 2730 level for the moment then we may well see a rise towards the 2 hour resistance at 2845, but a break below will likely lead to the 2657 level where we have the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel.

For the FTSE today, I think we may well see a rise to retest the 2 hour resistance levels that we dropped off yesterday at 5735. These are at similar levels for today as well, along with the coral now red at 5741. There is a cluster of lower resistance levels just below this at the 5720 area as well, the bulls will have their work cut out to push higher and as such we may see an initial dip from this area towards yesterdays closing price and the key fib at 5640 before we spring back up. A similar pattern to the ASX200 in fact.

If the bulls do push past the 5740 level then we should be on track for 5826 again where we have R2 and also start to look for further upside towards the 5950 level. That looks quite key and of that were to break we should see a decent push past 6000, though not today.

For the bears, should we break below the 5640 support then a test of the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 5485 currently would probably occur and that would tally with the S&P sliding towards the 2650 level.

So, some key tiger picture levels to look for but for today looking at 5640 for support initially and 5720 to 5740 as resistance. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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