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Oil goes negative | FTSE 100 cant hold 5800 | Bear Tuesday | 5740 resistance | 5625 support

#1 · 21st April 2020, 10:30 am

Quote from Nick on 21st April 2020, 10:30 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 21st April 2020
US oil prices crashed to a staggering low on Monday on fears the world is running out of space to store crude despite output cuts.
In a plunge that sent the price of oil lower than the cost of toilet paper, West Texas Intermediate futures for May sunk to -$40.32 and closed at -$37.63, the lowest price in its history. Brent crude, and WTI contracts for further months, slipped less dramatically. President Trump, addressing reporters at the White House daily briefing, says his administration is considering putting as much as 75 million barrels of oil into the US's Strategic Petroleum Reserves to "top it out".
The S&P 500 index fell 51.40 points, or 1.79pc, to 2,823.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 592.05, or 2.44pc, to 23,650.44. The Nasdaq lost 89.41 points, or 1pc, to 8,560.73.
Stocks sunk under weight of another collapse in oil prices however the FTSE 100 managed to creep out of the red, finishing 0.45pc higher at 5,812.83. The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 fell 0.20pc ending at 15,828.29.
New York Eases
New York state reported 478 coronavirus deaths over the past 24 hours, the lowest total since the start of the month and the sixth straight drop. Governors in Georgia and South Carolina took steps toward reopening their economies. Still, Anthony Fauci, the U.S.’s top infectious disease expert, warned those protesting lockdowns that reopening too soon could cause even more harm. Germany eased some curbs, even as Chancellor Angela Merkel sounded a note of caution. In fact, governments across Europe are trying to find ways to reopen shuttered economies, with Austria became one of the first European countries to ease lockdown measures last week. In Britain, Boris Johnson’s government issued a defense of his handling of the crisis and is resisting pressure to ease restrictions. Deaths and new cases slowed in the U.K. and Italy. Cases have now topped 2.4 million around the world, and deaths stand at 168,900.[Bloomberg]
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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The S&P needs to hold 2750 in the short term to keep a test of the higher resistance levels in play still, however a break below that will likely lead to the 2739 daily support, and then a more significant slide below that. So tying that in with the FTSE, the bulls will need to defend the 10 day Raff channel support for which is currently at 5610 for today. If they defend that then we may well see a climb back up, though the 2 hour chart is now bearish after the drop from 5840 yesterday and has decent looking resistance at 5740. As such I am expecting a rise and dip pattern to play out today.
Our long at 5706 yesterday played out well but overnight we have dipped below that support level and as such I am thinking that we are more likely to see a bear Tuesday session today. The price of oil will continue to weigh on the FTSE, and the ASX200 (Australia) had a fairly bearish session today.
On the bigger picture, the bulls really need to get the FTSE back towards the 5950 level and then we can start to think about testing the top of the daily Raff channels, the 10 day at 6100 to start with.
The economic fallout from Corona continues to mind boggle - a million joining the furlough scheme yesterday alone, and some forecasts of 11million unemployed! Airlines are tumbling, with South African being the latest, as well as Virgin Australia going into administration yesterday. Let's hope that the stimulus measures continue to keep the wolf from the door for the masses though of course such massive debt is likely to lead to inflation in the fullness of time to inflate the debt away. Interesting few years coming up that's for sure.
So, looking for a rise towards the 5740 level to start with this morning, and then above that we have the 5806 fib level as the next resistance level of note with the daily pivot at 5770 in between the two. If the bears break below the S1 level at 5690 then a slide to 5625 looks like it will happen, and then that 5550 daily support below that - a level that if see is worth a long. Good luck today.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 21st April 2020

US oil prices crashed to a staggering low on Monday on fears the world is running out of space to store crude despite output cuts.
In a plunge that sent the price of oil lower than the cost of toilet paper, West Texas Intermediate futures for May sunk to -$40.32 and closed at -$37.63, the lowest price in its history. Brent crude, and WTI contracts for further months, slipped less dramatically. President Trump, addressing reporters at the White House daily briefing, says his administration is considering putting as much as 75 million barrels of oil into the US's Strategic Petroleum Reserves to "top it out".

The S&P 500 index fell 51.40 points, or 1.79pc, to 2,823.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 592.05, or 2.44pc, to 23,650.44. The Nasdaq lost 89.41 points, or 1pc, to 8,560.73.

Stocks sunk under weight of another collapse in oil prices however the FTSE 100 managed to creep out of the red, finishing 0.45pc higher at 5,812.83. The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 fell 0.20pc ending at 15,828.29.

New York Eases

New York state reported 478 coronavirus deaths over the past 24 hours, the lowest total since the start of the month and the sixth straight drop. Governors in Georgia and South Carolina took steps toward reopening their economies. Still, Anthony Fauci, the U.S.’s top infectious disease expert, warned those protesting lockdowns that reopening too soon could cause even more harm. Germany eased some curbs, even as Chancellor Angela Merkel sounded a note of caution. In fact, governments across Europe are trying to find ways to reopen shuttered economies, with Austria became one of the first European countries to ease lockdown measures last week. In Britain, Boris Johnson’s government issued a defense of his handling of the crisis and is resisting pressure to ease restrictions. Deaths and new cases slowed in the U.K. and Italy. Cases have now topped 2.4 million around the world, and deaths stand at 168,900.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The S&P needs to hold 2750 in the short term to keep a test of the higher resistance levels in play still, however a break below that will likely lead to the 2739 daily support, and then a more significant slide below that. So tying that in with the FTSE, the bulls will need to defend the 10 day Raff channel support for which is currently at 5610 for today. If they defend that then we may well see a climb back up, though the 2 hour chart is now bearish after the drop from 5840 yesterday and has decent looking resistance at 5740. As such I am expecting a rise and dip pattern to play out today.

Our long at 5706 yesterday played out well but overnight we have dipped below that support level and as such I am thinking that we are more likely to see a bear Tuesday session today. The price of oil will continue to weigh on the FTSE, and the ASX200 (Australia) had a fairly bearish session today.

On the bigger picture, the bulls really need to get the FTSE back towards the 5950 level and then we can start to think about testing the top of the daily Raff channels, the 10 day at 6100 to start with.

The economic fallout from Corona continues to mind boggle - a million joining the furlough scheme yesterday alone, and some forecasts of 11million unemployed! Airlines are tumbling, with South African being the latest, as well as Virgin Australia going into administration yesterday. Let's hope that the stimulus measures continue to keep the wolf from the door for the masses though of course such massive debt is likely to lead to inflation in the fullness of time to inflate the debt away. Interesting few years coming up that's for sure.

So, looking for a rise towards the 5740 level to start with this morning, and then above that we have the 5806 fib level as the next resistance level of note with the daily pivot at 5770 in between the two. If the bears break below the S1 level at 5690 then a slide to 5625 looks like it will happen, and then that 5550 daily support below that - a level that if see is worth a long. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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