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Oil gains | Rally fades | 6535 6582 6591 resistance | 6500 6472 support

#1 · 4th February 2021, 10:23 am

Quote from Nick on 4th February 2021, 10:23 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th February 2021
Oil added to recent gains on Wednesday as the producers in Opec+ pledged to keep pushing to clear the surplus resulting from a pandemic-induced slump in demand for crude, while global inventories continue to shrink. Oil prices continued to tick higher, having already hit a 12-month high on Tuesday. Brent crude rose $1.22 to $58.68 a barrel, while US crude futures gained $1.23 to $55.99 a barrel.

Among other commodities, mining and trading giant Glencore gained 2.1p to 249p after it stuck to production targets for 2021, saying that production of major metals and coal would ramp back up as the world economy recovers. Glencore’s copper output fell last year compared to 2019, by 8pc to 1.26m tons – in line with expectations. It produced 106.2m metric tons of coal last year, at the lower end of its guidance range. Glencore stuck to its previous guidance for 2021, with copper expected to be lower but other major metals and coal ramping back up. The FTSE 100 firm also said it planned to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with a 40pc reduction in its footprint by 2035 compared with 2019 levels, making it in line with the Paris agreement on climate change.
Healthcare dragged London’s blue-chips into the red yesterday, with the FTSE 100 slipping 8.8 points to 6,507.8 to end a two-day rally.
Deflation doom eased in the eurozone after the sharpest surge in the region’s cost of living gauge in more than a decade. Inflation rocketed from minus 0.3pc to 0.9pc in January, hitting an 11-month high to alleviate the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to prop up prices. The rise ended a five-month period in deflationary territory and was largely driven by one-off factors, such as an end to the VAT cut in Germany. However, the flash estimate was still much stronger than economists’ expectations with the core rate - which strips out volatile energy and food costs - at 1.4pc, the highest level since 2013.
Markets Fall
Asian stocks looked set to retreat Thursday after a decline in technology and retail shares weighed on U.S. benchmarks as earnings continued to roll in. Treasuries fell and the dollar was little changed. Futures slipped in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The S&P 500 pared earlier gains to close barely in the green following its biggest two-day rally in almost three months, while the Nasdaq 100 finished lower. Oil climbed as OPEC+ said it will keep pushing to quickly clear the surplus left behind by the pandemic. A widely watched segment of the Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in almost five years.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
A three-day rally in global stocks faded on Thursday after Asian shares retreated with U.S. and European futures as earnings rolled in. Treasuries held overnight losses and the dollar edged higher.
S&P 500 futures slipped after the gauge closed barely in the green Wednesday following its biggest two-day rally in almost three months. South Korean and Hong Kong stocks led Asian bourses lower. Chinese shares retreated amid hawkish comments on a trade blacklist from President Joe Biden’s nominee for Commerce secretary Gina Raimondo. Earlier, the Nasdaq 100 closed lower as Amazon.com Inc. slumped.
Oil continued its ascent as OPEC+ said it will keep pushing to quickly clear the surplus left behind by the pandemic. A widely watched segment of the Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level since 2016. The pound dipped.
Amid a plethora of earnings, investors are mulling scattered signs of a pickup in U.S. activity as President Joe Biden pushes to win congressional passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal. Data showed companies added more jobs than forecast in January, while growth at service providers accelerated. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said stock prices reflect optimism about the economic recovery.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Decent rise and dip on the FTSE yesterday and the bulls will be keen to defend again now as we have dropped off to S1 at 6500 overnight. The 2 hour chart remains bullish with support here from the Hull moving average, and then also the coral (now green) at 6467 - should we dip down to that then worth a long here. With the recent weakness though the daily chart remains bearish with 6592 now the moving average resistance level on that - if we get that high then worth a short here.
The recent climb could well be fizzling out so the bulls will be keen to get that resumed and push higher again. The S&P bulls need to break the 3850 level for a chance of a test of the 3900 level and the top of the 20 day Raff channel. Talking of Raff channels, the 10 day FTSE one coincides nicely with that 6595 level and the moving average. That lends weight to a decent short entry here. The top of the 20 day channel for the FTSE is at 6641.
On the shorter time frames, initial resistance is at the 6535 level where we have the daily pivot and we may see any initial bounce falter here, for a drop down to retest that S1 level. Above this then the R1 and key fib level at 6582 looks good for a short, and if that coincided with the 3850 S&P level we may well see the bears try and take control here. Above that though and the 6600 and 6620 R2 level are the next ones to watch for.
For the bears, they will need to defend the S1 level as mentioned, then those 2 hour supports (6494 and 6467) otherwise a slide down towards 6400 looks to be on the cards. A break of that and then Sundays low at 6300 is next up, and the picture changes again to be more bearish.
Not much more to say for today really, looking at a possible rise and dip again, and watching to see if the S&P can push towards the 3900 level.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th February 2021

Oil added to recent gains on Wednesday as the producers in Opec+ pledged to keep pushing to clear the surplus resulting from a pandemic-induced slump in demand for crude, while global inventories continue to shrink. Oil prices continued to tick higher, having already hit a 12-month high on Tuesday. Brent crude rose $1.22 to $58.68 a barrel, while US crude futures gained $1.23 to $55.99 a barrel.

Among other commodities, mining and trading giant Glencore gained 2.1p to 249p after it stuck to production targets for 2021, saying that production of major metals and coal would ramp back up as the world economy recovers. Glencore’s copper output fell last year compared to 2019, by 8pc to 1.26m tons – in line with expectations. It produced 106.2m metric tons of coal last year, at the lower end of its guidance range. Glencore stuck to its previous guidance for 2021, with copper expected to be lower but other major metals and coal ramping back up. The FTSE 100 firm also said it planned to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with a 40pc reduction in its footprint by 2035 compared with 2019 levels, making it in line with the Paris agreement on climate change.

Healthcare dragged London’s blue-chips into the red yesterday, with the FTSE 100 slipping 8.8 points to 6,507.8 to end a two-day rally.

Deflation doom eased in the eurozone after the sharpest surge in the region’s cost of living gauge in more than a decade. Inflation rocketed from minus 0.3pc to 0.9pc in January, hitting an 11-month high to alleviate the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to prop up prices. The rise ended a five-month period in deflationary territory and was largely driven by one-off factors, such as an end to the VAT cut in Germany. However, the flash estimate was still much stronger than economists’ expectations with the core rate - which strips out volatile energy and food costs - at 1.4pc, the highest level since 2013.

Markets Fall
Asian stocks looked set to retreat Thursday after a decline in technology and retail shares weighed on U.S. benchmarks as earnings continued to roll in. Treasuries fell and the dollar was little changed. Futures slipped in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The S&P 500 pared earlier gains to close barely in the green following its biggest two-day rally in almost three months, while the Nasdaq 100 finished lower. Oil climbed as OPEC+ said it will keep pushing to quickly clear the surplus left behind by the pandemic. A widely watched segment of the Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in almost five years.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

A three-day rally in global stocks faded on Thursday after Asian shares retreated with U.S. and European futures as earnings rolled in. Treasuries held overnight losses and the dollar edged higher.

S&P 500 futures slipped after the gauge closed barely in the green Wednesday following its biggest two-day rally in almost three months. South Korean and Hong Kong stocks led Asian bourses lower. Chinese shares retreated amid hawkish comments on a trade blacklist from President Joe Biden’s nominee for Commerce secretary Gina Raimondo. Earlier, the Nasdaq 100 closed lower as Amazon.com Inc. slumped.

Oil continued its ascent as OPEC+ said it will keep pushing to quickly clear the surplus left behind by the pandemic. A widely watched segment of the Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level since 2016. The pound dipped.

Amid a plethora of earnings, investors are mulling scattered signs of a pickup in U.S. activity as President Joe Biden pushes to win congressional passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal. Data showed companies added more jobs than forecast in January, while growth at service providers accelerated. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said stock prices reflect optimism about the economic recovery.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Decent rise and dip on the FTSE yesterday and the bulls will be keen to defend again now as we have dropped off to S1 at 6500 overnight. The 2 hour chart remains bullish with support here from the Hull moving average, and then also the coral (now green) at 6467 - should we dip down to that then worth a long here. With the recent weakness though the daily chart remains bearish with 6592 now the moving average resistance level on that - if we get that high then worth a short here.

The recent climb could well be fizzling out so the bulls will be keen to get that resumed and push higher again. The S&P bulls need to break the 3850 level for a chance of a test of the 3900 level and the top of the 20 day Raff channel. Talking of Raff channels, the 10 day FTSE one coincides nicely with that 6595 level and the moving average. That lends weight to a decent short entry here. The top of the 20 day channel for the FTSE is at 6641.

On the shorter time frames, initial resistance is at the 6535 level where we have the daily pivot and we may see any initial bounce falter here, for a drop down to retest that S1 level. Above this then the R1 and key fib level at 6582 looks good for a short, and if that coincided with the 3850 S&P level we may well see the bears try and take control here. Above that though and the 6600 and 6620 R2 level are the next ones to watch for.

For the bears, they will need to defend the S1 level as mentioned, then those 2 hour supports (6494 and 6467) otherwise a slide down towards 6400 looks to be on the cards. A break of that and then Sundays low at 6300 is next up, and the picture changes again to be more bearish.

Not much more to say for today really, looking at a possible rise and dip again, and watching to see if the S&P can push towards the 3900 level.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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