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NFP Friday 268k forecast | 7200 7230 7263 7315 resistance | 7140 7095 support

#1 · 8th July 2022, 8:41 am

Quote from Nick on 8th July 2022, 8:41 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Stocks in Asia pared a climb Friday and the yen strengthened after the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe injected uncertainty into a trading session earlier lifted by easing recession fears.
An Asian share index halved a jump of more than 1%. The knee-jerk unease sparked by the incident also bolstered the dollar and Treasuries while sapping US and European equity futures.
Asian shares tracked overnight Wall Street gains in early trading on Friday as fears of an economic slowdown cooled and sterling began to claw back recent losses following Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to resign.
All three major U.S. indices made gains overnight on positive signals from Federal Reserve officials. Governor Christopher Waller called recession fears “overblown,” while St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard said he saw a “good chance” of a soft landing for the economy.
Waller suggested the Fed would likely attempt to tackle inflation with a 75-basis-point interest rate hike in July and a 50-basis-point hike in September. Though he said, “if inflation just doesn’t seem to be coming down, we have to do more,” allowing for possible future 25-basis-point hikes.
This provided some relief to share markets after recent heavy sell-offs caused by fears global central banks will push economies into recession to curb runaway inflation. The Asian regional benchmark is still down 16% so far this year.
The latest indicator of the health of the U.S. economy is due later in the day with the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data. The consensus expectation is for 268,000 jobs to have been added in May.
BoJo’s Mojo
Boris Johnson announced his intention to resign as UK prime minister, bowing to the inevitable after the mass resignation of members of his government and excoriating public attacks on his judgment, leadership and allegiance to the truth. Johnson was still in Downing Street on Thursday night, however, seeking to remain as caretaker Prime Minister until October when a new Tory leader will be in place. But the ruling Conservative Party is urgently drawing up plans for an accelerated contestto choose his successor by the end of the summer, rather than allowing the extended three-month swan song.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 8th July 2022
The range remained intact yesterday between the 7200 and 7100 levels with a failure to break either way. We have NFP today which may act as a catalyst though for a push though. That said, the 30m coral is now red with 7200 as initial resistance and then we have the daily level at 7220 above that. The forecast for NFP is 268k, lower than 390k previously, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 3.6%.
If the bulls were above to break 7220, and its probably dependent on the S&P500 breaking above the 3910 resistance level as well, then we would be looking at a rise towards the 7255 level and just below R2 at 7263. Above that the 200ema on the daily chart aligns with R3 at 7315, though that does feel a bit of a big ask for today though not impossible. The market hasn't exactly moved much following Boris' resignation.
For the bears then they will be looking to break the 7140 support area as we have S1, daily support and the key fib here. Also though we have the 100 Hull MA on the 2h chart, which would be good to see hold. Again, it will probably be determined by the USA and if they can push higher. If not then we will likely slide as well.
Oil has crept up again following its move below $100. Good for the oil heavy FTSE100, not so much for inflation and cost of living!
Below 7140 then 7095 is S2 and the then 7060 for S3, with the recent 7090 level possibly likely to get a reaction.
The 2h charts are bullish for all 3 markets I watch - FTSE100, Dax40 and S&P500 - so it would be good to see a strong end to the week. Obviously we are also getting closer to earnings season on the 15th as well, so a rise across the board ahead of them would make sense.
For the Dax40 I am liking the 12650ish area as support as we have 12655 and 12620 as the 2h key supports.
For the S&P500 the 3835 level is the green 2h coral, and just below the S1, key fib and 30m 200ema support at the 3845 level. As such it would be good to see this area hold any test today.
Dip and rise possibly then for today but as its Friday be a bit more cautious, good luck and have a great weekend.
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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Stocks in Asia pared a climb Friday and the yen strengthened after the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe injected uncertainty into a trading session earlier lifted by easing recession fears.

An Asian share index halved a jump of more than 1%. The knee-jerk unease sparked by the incident also bolstered the dollar and Treasuries while sapping US and European equity futures.

Asian shares tracked overnight Wall Street gains in early trading on Friday as fears of an economic slowdown cooled and sterling began to claw back recent losses following Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to resign.

All three major U.S. indices made gains overnight on positive signals from Federal Reserve officials. Governor Christopher Waller called recession fears “overblown,” while St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard said he saw a “good chance” of a soft landing for the economy.

Waller suggested the Fed would likely attempt to tackle inflation with a 75-basis-point interest rate hike in July and a 50-basis-point hike in September. Though he said, “if inflation just doesn’t seem to be coming down, we have to do more,” allowing for possible future 25-basis-point hikes.

This provided some relief to share markets after recent heavy sell-offs caused by fears global central banks will push economies into recession to curb runaway inflation. The Asian regional benchmark is still down 16% so far this year.

The latest indicator of the health of the U.S. economy is due later in the day with the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data. The consensus expectation is for 268,000 jobs to have been added in May.

BoJo’s Mojo
Boris Johnson announced his intention to resign as UK prime minister, bowing to the inevitable after the mass resignation of members of his government and excoriating public attacks on his judgment, leadership and allegiance to the truth. Johnson was still in Downing Street on Thursday night, however, seeking to remain as caretaker Prime Minister until October when a new Tory leader will be in place. But the ruling Conservative Party is urgently drawing up plans for an accelerated contestto choose his successor by the end of the summer, rather than allowing the extended three-month swan song.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 8th July 2022

The range remained intact yesterday between the 7200 and 7100 levels with a failure to break either way. We have NFP today which may act as a catalyst though for a push though. That said, the 30m coral is now red with 7200 as initial resistance and then we have the daily level at 7220 above that. The forecast for NFP is 268k, lower than 390k previously, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

If the bulls were above to break 7220, and its probably dependent on the S&P500 breaking above the 3910 resistance level as well, then we would be looking at a rise towards the 7255 level and just below R2 at 7263. Above that the 200ema on the daily chart aligns with R3 at 7315, though that does feel a bit of a big ask for today though not impossible. The market hasn't exactly moved much following Boris' resignation.

For the bears then they will be looking to break the 7140 support area as we have S1, daily support and the key fib here. Also though we have the 100 Hull MA on the 2h chart, which would be good to see hold. Again, it will probably be determined by the USA and if they can push higher. If not then we will likely slide as well.

Oil has crept up again following its move below $100. Good for the oil heavy FTSE100, not so much for inflation and cost of living!

Below 7140 then 7095 is S2 and the then 7060 for S3, with the recent 7090 level possibly likely to get a reaction.

The 2h charts are bullish for all 3 markets I watch - FTSE100, Dax40 and S&P500 - so it would be good to see a strong end to the week. Obviously we are also getting closer to earnings season on the 15th as well, so a rise across the board ahead of them would make sense.

For the Dax40 I am liking the 12650ish area as support as we have 12655 and 12620 as the 2h key supports.

For the S&P500 the 3835 level is the green 2h coral, and just below the S1, key fib and 30m 200ema support at the 3845 level. As such it would be good to see this area hold any test today.

Dip and rise possibly then for today but as its Friday be a bit more cautious, good luck and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates