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Next PM to give it a go | 6880 6825 support | 6935 6955 6980 resistance

#1 · 20th October 2022, 11:54 am

Quote from Nick on 20th October 2022, 11:54 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Positive earnings results and rising inflation battled for traders' attention yesterday, leaving the FTSE 100 down 0.2pc lower. On the flip side, banks are facing a surge in bad debts as rising interest rates saddle homeowners with more than £50bn of added mortgage payments, an analyst has warned.
Stocks slumped in Asia and bond yields spiked higher amid concern that strong inflation and hawkish monetary policy will further slow the global economy. Shares dropped in Japan, Australia and China, with Hong Kong’s equity benchmark headed for the lowest close since 2009. News that Chinese officials were debating whether to reduce the amount of quarantine time for people coming into the country helped curb some declines without lifting the overall gloom.
Asian share markets fell on Thursday as investor fears over a looming recession crimped risk appetite, while Treasury yields rose on expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in its interest rate hikes.
Japan’s yen crept close to the psychological barrier of 150 per dollar after earlier marking a fresh 32-year low of 149.93. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched a fresh 14-year high, brushing off a weak housing report. U.S. 10-year yields were last up at 4.139%, beyond the 4.136% high it touched earlier.
Wall Street snapped a two-day streak of gains on Wednesday, while the dollar bounced from two-week lows. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell to more than two-year low of 436.0 and was down 1.6% at 437.16,
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was 1.12% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei opened 1% lower at 26,981.75 on Thursday.
China’s stock market opened 0.5% lower as the ruling Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress remains in session this week.
China on Thursday kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a second straight month as authorities held off unleashing more monetary stimulus to avoid stark policy divergence with other major economies.
In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar firmed as investors flocked to the safe haven after inflation data across the world raised the prospect of central banks continuing with interest rate hikes.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said job market demand remains strong and underlying inflation pressures probably have not peaked yet.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time at its November meeting.
Still, the Fed’s “Beige Book” survey of economic activity showed that there was there was some easing in several districts, but firms noted price pressures remained elevated.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 20th October 2022
Chaotic scenes in Westminster as the government implodes but at least the FTSE100 has held on just about. Cable is still hovering about at 11200 and the bulls are hanging in there on that too. After the strong rise to start the week on the S&P has consolidated a bit, probably coiling ready for another leg up. Interestingly the Dax daily chart has chart gone bullish (the only one so far to do so) so we could start to see some more strength coming in.
The S&P500 bulls will need to break above 3735 where we have 2h Hull MA resistance, and the FTSE100 bulls need to break above 6960 which is also the 2h resistance on that.
Initially today we could see a dip down to the overnight lows and also the key fib at the 6881 level, as overnight we have bounced up to the daily pivot at the 6935 level which is going to act as resistance to start with.
Above 6935 then the bulls will be aiming for 7000 again, but we have R1 and the key fib in the way at the 6980 level. As such we could see a stutter here, if they manage to push past that 2h resistance level at 6960. A overshoot of the 2h resistance to R1/fib would make sense before a dip off that.
For the bears, then obviously a break of the overnight low at the 6890 is what they are aiming for, along with the key fib support at the 6881 level. S1 is at 6870, so we do have a cluster of supports in this area, so a break of this area will be quite bearish. 6824 is S2 so the likely next target for the bears. However, the Raff channels are starting to level off a bit more now, and in fact the 10d Raff channel for the S&P is heading up now. It does therefore feel like we might be bottoming out and a bit of stabilisation is in progress. Bit more buy the dip coming to the fore now too.
S&P500
Again, a small dip down to the overnight low to start with and I am looking to see if that holds and also the key fib at the 3672 level which would set up a possible bounce to the 3737 level and a test of the 2h resistance. Above that then we may well be on for a test of the 3801 R2 level though that feels a bit of a big ask for today. Earnings are generally coming in ok at the moment which is helping with that stabilisation!
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Positive earnings results and rising inflation battled for traders' attention yesterday, leaving the FTSE 100 down 0.2pc lower. On the flip side, banks are facing a surge in bad debts as rising interest rates saddle homeowners with more than £50bn of added mortgage payments, an analyst has warned.

Stocks slumped in Asia and bond yields spiked higher amid concern that strong inflation and hawkish monetary policy will further slow the global economy. Shares dropped in Japan, Australia and China, with Hong Kong’s equity benchmark headed for the lowest close since 2009. News that Chinese officials were debating whether to reduce the amount of quarantine time for people coming into the country helped curb some declines without lifting the overall gloom.

Asian share markets fell on Thursday as investor fears over a looming recession crimped risk appetite, while Treasury yields rose on expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in its interest rate hikes.

Japan’s yen crept close to the psychological barrier of 150 per dollar after earlier marking a fresh 32-year low of 149.93. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched a fresh 14-year high, brushing off a weak housing report. U.S. 10-year yields were last up at 4.139%, beyond the 4.136% high it touched earlier.

Wall Street snapped a two-day streak of gains on Wednesday, while the dollar bounced from two-week lows. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell to more than two-year low of 436.0 and was down 1.6% at 437.16,

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was 1.12% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei opened 1% lower at 26,981.75 on Thursday.

China’s stock market opened 0.5% lower as the ruling Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress remains in session this week.

China on Thursday kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a second straight month as authorities held off unleashing more monetary stimulus to avoid stark policy divergence with other major economies.

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar firmed as investors flocked to the safe haven after inflation data across the world raised the prospect of central banks continuing with interest rate hikes.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said job market demand remains strong and underlying inflation pressures probably have not peaked yet.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time at its November meeting.

Still, the Fed’s “Beige Book” survey of economic activity showed that there was there was some easing in several districts, but firms noted price pressures remained elevated.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 20th October 2022

Chaotic scenes in Westminster as the government implodes but at least the FTSE100 has held on just about. Cable is still hovering about at 11200 and the bulls are hanging in there on that too. After the strong rise to start the week on the S&P has consolidated a bit, probably coiling ready for another leg up. Interestingly the Dax daily chart has chart gone bullish (the only one so far to do so) so we could start to see some more strength coming in.

The S&P500 bulls will need to break above 3735 where we have 2h Hull MA resistance, and the FTSE100 bulls need to break above 6960 which is also the 2h resistance on that.

Initially today we could see a dip down to the overnight lows and also the key fib at the 6881 level, as overnight we have bounced up to the daily pivot at the 6935 level which is going to act as resistance to start with.

Above 6935 then the bulls will be aiming for 7000 again, but we have R1 and the key fib in the way at the 6980 level. As such we could see a stutter here, if they manage to push past that 2h resistance level at 6960. A overshoot of the 2h resistance to R1/fib would make sense before a dip off that.

For the bears, then obviously a break of the overnight low at the 6890 is what they are aiming for, along with the key fib support at the 6881 level. S1 is at 6870, so we do have a cluster of supports in this area, so a break of this area will be quite bearish. 6824 is S2 so the likely next target for the bears. However, the Raff channels are starting to level off a bit more now, and in fact the 10d Raff channel for the S&P is heading up now. It does therefore feel like we might be bottoming out and a bit of stabilisation is in progress. Bit more buy the dip coming to the fore now too.

S&P500
Again, a small dip down to the overnight low to start with and I am looking to see if that holds and also the key fib at the 3672 level which would set up a possible bounce to the 3737 level and a test of the 2h resistance. Above that then we may well be on for a test of the 3801 R2 level though that feels a bit of a big ask for today. Earnings are generally coming in ok at the moment which is helping with that stabilisation!

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates