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Monday morning carnage but 5850 support may well hold | climb to 6240 possible | Oil slides

#1 · 9th March 2020, 9:35 am

Quote from Nick on 9th March 2020, 9:35 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 9th March 2020
We start the week with a major sell off Sunday night, with the FTSE futures hitting 5900! Virus fears plus the collapse in the oil price, which has dropped 30% already, has put the cat amongst the pigeons as we start the week.
London's benchmark index lost more than £60bn on Friday as global markets ended the week yet again in the red. The blue-chip FTSE 100 ended the day down 3.62pc, the fourth fall of more than 3pc in a fortnight and the biggest fall since August 2015. It is its lowest level since July 2016. The FTSE 250 dropped 2.88pc while the CAC and DAX tumbled 4.14pc and 3.37pc respectively.
Friday saw Coronavirus fears push US stocks lower, with the Dow Jones closing 1pc (250 points) down and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shedding 1.9pc. Petroleum producers and banks were the biggest fallers, as health fears overshadowed a strong US jobs report. The bulls (no doubt helped by the Fed) pushed the prices back up as the week drew to a close defending the 2900 level on the S&P500, however to little avail this morning, as its now at 2821 as I write this.
Oil markets crashed more than 30% this morning after the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance triggered an all-out price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that is likely to have sweeping political and economic consequences. Hammered by withering demand due to the coronavirus, the oil market is sinking deeper into chaos on the prospect of a supply free-for-all. Saudi Arabia slashed its official prices by the most in at least 20 years over the weekend and signaled to buyers it would ramp up output - an unambiguous declaration of intent to flood the market with crude. Russia said its companies were free to pump as much as they could. Friday saw 10% come off the price, after major producers failed to agree to production cuts after Russia balked at a proposal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to trim crude output by 1.5 million barrels per day in face of the lower demand due to the epidemic.
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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
We are opening this morning with a massive gap down and hovering around the 6000 level. Fridays close was at 6459 and against the current backdrop I don't think we will see a rally to close that gap this morning, but of course don't rule anything out. Overnight the FTSE futures hit 5900 and we have bounced back with the first retest of the 6240 support level becoming resistance and then another leg down. The bulls therefore need to break this level as we have the fib and S2 here. We are opening below S3 though, which is at 6092 so initial resistance there.
I have a long term support level at 5858 and if we were to get down there I think we "may" see a bounce. Be cautious though, and remember the market is always there, you don't need to trade all the time, and sometimes it's best of sitting on the sidelines! "Better to be out wishing you were in, than in, wishing you were out" is a good mantra to abide by sometimes....
Anyway, because of the big move down so far, there are not a lot of support levels in play now, really only the 10 day Raff channel at 6024 which we are back above now, and then the 5858 level below that. We do have the overnight low at 5900 as well, so keep an eye on this level but I am expecting us to slide more this morning, at least initially.
As a result of the gap down, the resistance levels are all pretty far away. Above 6242 the 2 hour levels are the ones of note, at 6550 and 6650 but to climb there today seems a big ask - but you never know.
Stay nimble today and protect capital!
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 9th March 2020

We start the week with a major sell off Sunday night, with the FTSE futures hitting 5900! Virus fears plus the collapse in the oil price, which has dropped 30% already, has put the cat amongst the pigeons as we start the week.

London's benchmark index lost more than £60bn on Friday as global markets ended the week yet again in the red. The blue-chip FTSE 100 ended the day down 3.62pc, the fourth fall of more than 3pc in a fortnight and the biggest fall since August 2015. It is its lowest level since July 2016. The FTSE 250 dropped 2.88pc while the CAC and DAX tumbled 4.14pc and 3.37pc respectively.

Friday saw Coronavirus fears push US stocks lower, with the Dow Jones closing 1pc (250 points) down and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shedding 1.9pc. Petroleum producers and banks were the biggest fallers, as health fears overshadowed a strong US jobs report. The bulls (no doubt helped by the Fed) pushed the prices back up as the week drew to a close defending the 2900 level on the S&P500, however to little avail this morning, as its now at 2821 as I write this.

Oil markets crashed more than 30% this morning after the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance triggered an all-out price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that is likely to have sweeping political and economic consequences. Hammered by withering demand due to the coronavirus, the oil market is sinking deeper into chaos on the prospect of a supply free-for-all. Saudi Arabia slashed its official prices by the most in at least 20 years over the weekend and signaled to buyers it would ramp up output - an unambiguous declaration of intent to flood the market with crude. Russia said its companies were free to pump as much as they could. Friday saw 10% come off the price, after major producers failed to agree to production cuts after Russia balked at a proposal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to trim crude output by 1.5 million barrels per day in face of the lower demand due to the epidemic.

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

We are opening this morning with a massive gap down and hovering around the 6000 level. Fridays close was at 6459 and against the current backdrop I don't think we will see a rally to close that gap this morning, but of course don't rule anything out. Overnight the FTSE futures hit 5900 and we have bounced back with the first retest of the 6240 support level becoming resistance and then another leg down. The bulls therefore need to break this level as we have the fib and S2 here. We are opening below S3 though, which is at 6092 so initial resistance there.

I have a long term support level at 5858 and if we were to get down there I think we "may" see a bounce. Be cautious though, and remember the market is always there, you don't need to trade all the time, and sometimes it's best of sitting on the sidelines! "Better to be out wishing you were in, than in, wishing you were out" is a good mantra to abide by sometimes....

Anyway, because of the big move down so far, there are not a lot of support levels in play now, really only the 10 day Raff channel at 6024 which we are back above now, and then the 5858 level below that. We do have the overnight low at 5900 as well, so keep an eye on this level but I am expecting us to slide more this morning, at least initially.

As a result of the gap down, the resistance levels are all pretty far away. Above 6242 the 2 hour levels are the ones of note, at 6550 and 6650 but to climb there today seems a big ask - but you never know.

Stay nimble today and protect capital!

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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