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Markets push on but for how long | War of word China US | 5910 6005 resistance | 5790 5716 support

#1 · 7th May 2020, 9:08 am

Quote from Nick on 7th May 2020, 9:08 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 7th May 2020
The world's main stock markets brushed off data showing the extent of the economic damage wrought by measures to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.
Top among that data: more than 20.2 million US private sector jobs were destroyed in April according to payrolls firm ADP.
Nevertheless, US stocks pushed higher at the open, but the Dow had dipped into the red by the close of European trading.
The ADP figures are seen as an indicator of the all-important government non-farm jobs report due out Friday, which economists expect to show 28 million jobs lost in the month due to the widespread business shutdowns to contain the virus.
European stock markets nursed modest losses while Asian indices mostly rose, and oil prices slid.
Boris Johnson said he could begin to ease a nationwide coronavirus lockdown next week, while Belgium is to open shops on Monday. But fears of a second virus wave as the lockdown eases have been keeping traders on their toes.
The FTSE 100 crept 0.07pc higher at 5,853.76 while the FTSE 250 fell 0.69pc to 15,982.47. In the eurozone, the German DAX fell 1pc to 10,606 as the French CAC also dropped 1pc to 4,433.
War Of Words
Secretary of State Michael Pompeo again ratcheted up his criticism of China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, asserting that it covered up the origins of the virus. But he eased off earlier claims of “enormous evidence” that the virus escaped from a laboratory there. Nonetheless, his comments signal yet another escalation in the war of words between the Trump administration and the Chinese government over who’s to blame for the pandemic and which of the world’s two biggest economies will take the lead in halting its spread. On the virus front, California reported its biggest one-day jump in cases, and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo warned that his state’s improving data is obscuring a worsening U.S. outbreak. The U.K.’s death toll topped 30,000. Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands are planning additional steps to ease their restrictions, while Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against rushing into it. Meanwhile, the WHO says infecting subjects may speed up vaccine studies. Also, Covid-19 research groups are being attacked by hackers.[Bloomberg]
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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Asian stocks were mixed and U.S. futures pushed higher Thursday as investors digested a surprise rise in China’s exports amid mixed global economic data. Treasuries pared an overnight decline. S&P 500 futures extended gains and the offshore yuan rose after Chinese exports beat expectations in April.
With the UK Bank Holiday tomorrow for VE Day, this is the last trading day of the week for the FTSE100, and I am looking at a range between 5790 and 5910 to be in play today. We do have the BOE data out this morning which may provide some movement, and then also US jobs data out at 13:30 - continuing claims and so on, with the forecast at 3000k versus 3839k previously. Continuing claims are forecasted at 19905k versus 7992k previously. Still think there are a lot more job cuts to come, globally. In the UK, once the furlough scheme ends and also the new method of operating is going to see some fairly fundamental changes.
Anyway, onto today and the ASX200 had a fairly flat session and we may well follow suit. The 2 hour chart is bullish still, and overnight the bulls have defended the 5800 area once again. The 2 hour coral is now green showing support initially at this 5803 level still. Should the bears break below this then 5763 is S1, though a slide towards the 5700 level is on the cards once this cluster of supports at 5790 breaks.
On the flip side, the bulls will be looking to regain 5900 having dropped off that yesterday and we now also have daily resistance at the 5910 level. With news of easing of lockdown restrictions set to be announced on Sunday then the market may well cement in some of the recent gains as we move towards the new normal and get some money flowing round the economy again. Above 5910 then 6036 is the next main resistance level, with 6075 above that. The top of the 10 day Raff channel is just above the recent high at 6200, being 6220, so the bulls would more than likely aim fo this area if they get a tail wind, though obviously not expecting that today. 5871 is initial resistance to start with where we have the key fib level, and also just below R1 which is at 5882. If the bears were to appear here then we should see a slide down to test the 5800 level again.
Quickly looking to the S&P the bulls will be keen to break the 2900 level which has held recently, as that opens up a retest of the 3000 level where we have the 200 daily moving average, though the 200ema is lower at 2947. Having already dropped off this recently the bulls will be keen to push through that on another go. Should the bears break below the 2831 level then a slide towards the bottom of the Raff channels at 2765 looks likely.
So, slightly mixed picture for today, and treat today as the end of the week for the FTSE so likely to see some banking of profits for a dip at the end of the day. Watching the 5910 and 6030 areas for resistance, 5790 and 5690 for support. Good luck today and enjoy the long weekend.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 7th May 2020

The world's main stock markets brushed off data showing the extent of the economic damage wrought by measures to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.
Top among that data: more than 20.2 million US private sector jobs were destroyed in April according to payrolls firm ADP.
Nevertheless, US stocks pushed higher at the open, but the Dow had dipped into the red by the close of European trading.
The ADP figures are seen as an indicator of the all-important government non-farm jobs report due out Friday, which economists expect to show 28 million jobs lost in the month due to the widespread business shutdowns to contain the virus.
European stock markets nursed modest losses while Asian indices mostly rose, and oil prices slid.
Boris Johnson said he could begin to ease a nationwide coronavirus lockdown next week, while Belgium is to open shops on Monday. But fears of a second virus wave as the lockdown eases have been keeping traders on their toes.

The FTSE 100 crept 0.07pc higher at 5,853.76 while the FTSE 250 fell 0.69pc to 15,982.47. In the eurozone, the German DAX fell 1pc to 10,606 as the French CAC also dropped 1pc to 4,433.

War Of Words

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo again ratcheted up his criticism of China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, asserting that it covered up the origins of the virus. But he eased off earlier claims of “enormous evidence” that the virus escaped from a laboratory there. Nonetheless, his comments signal yet another escalation in the war of words between the Trump administration and the Chinese government over who’s to blame for the pandemic and which of the world’s two biggest economies will take the lead in halting its spread. On the virus front, California reported its biggest one-day jump in cases, and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo warned that his state’s improving data is obscuring a worsening U.S. outbreak. The U.K.’s death toll topped 30,000. Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands are planning additional steps to ease their restrictions, while Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against rushing into it. Meanwhile, the WHO says infecting subjects may speed up vaccine studies. Also, Covid-19 research groups are being attacked by hackers.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Asian stocks were mixed and U.S. futures pushed higher Thursday as investors digested a surprise rise in China’s exports amid mixed global economic data. Treasuries pared an overnight decline. S&P 500 futures extended gains and the offshore yuan rose after Chinese exports beat expectations in April.

With the UK Bank Holiday tomorrow for VE Day, this is the last trading day of the week for the FTSE100, and I am looking at a range between 5790 and 5910 to be in play today. We do have the BOE data out this morning which may provide some movement, and then also US jobs data out at 13:30 - continuing claims and so on, with the forecast at 3000k versus 3839k previously. Continuing claims are forecasted at 19905k versus 7992k previously. Still think there are a lot more job cuts to come, globally. In the UK, once the furlough scheme ends and also the new method of operating is going to see some fairly fundamental changes.

Anyway, onto today and the ASX200 had a fairly flat session and we may well follow suit. The 2 hour chart is bullish still, and overnight the bulls have defended the 5800 area once again. The 2 hour coral is now green showing support initially at this 5803 level still. Should the bears break below this then 5763 is S1, though a slide towards the 5700 level is on the cards once this cluster of supports at 5790 breaks.

On the flip side, the bulls will be looking to regain 5900 having dropped off that yesterday and we now also have daily resistance at the 5910 level. With news of easing of lockdown restrictions set to be announced on Sunday then the market may well cement in some of the recent gains as we move towards the new normal and get some money flowing round the economy again. Above 5910 then 6036 is the next main resistance level, with 6075 above that. The top of the 10 day Raff channel is just above the recent high at 6200, being 6220, so the bulls would more than likely aim fo this area if they get a tail wind, though obviously not expecting that today. 5871 is initial resistance to start with where we have the key fib level, and also just below R1 which is at 5882. If the bears were to appear here then we should see a slide down to test the 5800 level again.

Quickly looking to the S&P the bulls will be keen to break the 2900 level which has held recently, as that opens up a retest of the 3000 level where we have the 200 daily moving average, though the 200ema is lower at 2947. Having already dropped off this recently the bulls will be keen to push through that on another go. Should the bears break below the 2831 level then a slide towards the bottom of the Raff channels at 2765 looks likely.

So, slightly mixed picture for today, and treat today as the end of the week for the FTSE so likely to see some banking of profits for a dip at the end of the day. Watching the 5910 and 6030 areas for resistance, 5790 and 5690 for support. Good luck today and enjoy the long weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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