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Looking bearish | Half day for US markets | 6350 6327 6305 support | 6400 6444 resistance

#1 · 27th November 2020, 10:49 am

Quote from Nick on 27th November 2020, 10:49 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 27th November 2020
With Wall Street closed yesterday, the mood was pretty set on European markets – the FTSE 100 is putting in a markedly weak performance compared to its continental rivals.
UK stocks fall as Government launches new tier rules
Furlough numbers soar under second lockdown - The share of workers on furlough has hit its highest level since June as firms reached for state help during England's second national lockdown. Businesses furloughed 15pc of their staff from Nov 2 to Nov 15, a 9pc rise since the second half of October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. In June, the proportion hit 29.5pc.
AstraZeneca's boss has said the pharma firm is likely to do another global trial to see how effective its coronavirus vaccine is, after current studies raised questions over its level of protection.
The price of Bitcoin has dropped 11pc from its three-year high: one Bitcoin now costs $17,220 (£12,900) down from £14,500 just 24 hours ago, according to Coinbase, a cryptocurrency trading site. The digital currency, often referred to as “ digital gold” due to its finite supply and supposed low correlation with stocks and bonds, was on the cusp of reaching an all-time high of £15,000 before traders turned against it.
Nothing majorly new from Boris Johnson's speech, but a few takeaways:
Workers should continue to work from home, if they can
Shops, gyms, places of worships, cinemas, hospitality (in some capacity) are opening across all tiers
"Tough measures in our winter plan are the best way to avoid" a lockdown in the new year
Tier allocations will be reviewed every 14 days
Johnson has no doubt that in Spring - after lockdowns, with testing and hopefully a vaccine - we can "reclaim our lives and all the things we love"
The government has supplied about 200,000 laptops to schools to aid remote learning, but urges keeping schools open is a priority
[Bloomberg]
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian equities are ending the week in a cautious fashion as investors assess valuations following the rapid rise in global stocks this month and the enduring pandemic in parts of Europe and the U.S. Oil retreated amid rising tensions within OPEC+ members.
Shares underperformed in Australia and Hong Kong, while Japan edged up, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index remained on course for a 12% November surge. S&P 500 contracts dipped and Treasuries advanced. Volumes may be lower than average on Friday with reduced trading hours for U.S. stocks and bonds. Bitcoin steadied after sliding almost 10% on Thursday. The dollar ticked lower and the yen outperformed.
Even with three potentially successful vaccines on the table, sentiment remains fragile as the virus toll continues to rise in Europe and the U.S., leading German Chancellor Angela Merkel to call on Europe’s ski resorts to close this winter. AstraZeneca Plc is likely to conduct a further global trial of its vaccine after current studies raised questions, CEO Pascal Soriot said in an interview. The task of vaccinating the world’s population is rife with logistical problems, all while the virus gains ground and economic recoveries wobble.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The day after Thanksgiving in the US and the US markets close earlier at 1pm ET today. As such, we may well drift a bit today on the FTSE as well. Annoying that the short order at 6416 missed by a point yesterday as that was subsequently a decent drop down from there to an overnight low of 6327, which is now set up as short term support.
That said, initial support this morning is a bit higher at 6350 as following the overnight climb from that low, the moving averages are setting up on the 30min for a bullish cross. So, with 6350, and 6327 as the main supports for today, we may not get any lower. However, if the bears were to break below that then 6310 is the next main area of support on the daily, with the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel here, along with S1 at 6312. If the bears went mad today, and I am not expecting them too, then 6267 is the lower support.
For the bulls, they will need to break the pivot at 6364 to start with, and then a more significant test of the 30m 200ema to start with at 6376 looks likely. We may well see a reaction here, before another push up to the more significant resistance at 6401 - with the key fib here, and also key 2h resistance from both the Hull moving average and the coral, we may well see the bulls struggle to push past this today. Above this then R2 is 6444 - feels a big ask to get that high today though.
The S&P has 2 hour resistance at 3641 to start with and post Thanksgiving we may well see some buying - tips swapped over a Turkey can see some speculative purchases. In a good sign for the bulls it has defended that 3615 level again overnight though, but the big test will be a push through the 3660 level - 3690 top of the 10 day Raff channel then beckons. Might be Monday for that sort of rise though.
So, watching 6350 and 6400 as the range, though the outlier support at 6327 maybe seen again. Have a good session - remember Friday can pay to do reduced stakes. Have a good weekend as well.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 27th November 2020

With Wall Street closed yesterday, the mood was pretty set on European markets – the FTSE 100 is putting in a markedly weak performance compared to its continental rivals.

UK stocks fall as Government launches new tier rules
Furlough numbers soar under second lockdown - The share of workers on furlough has hit its highest level since June as firms reached for state help during England's second national lockdown. Businesses furloughed 15pc of their staff from Nov 2 to Nov 15, a 9pc rise since the second half of October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. In June, the proportion hit 29.5pc.

AstraZeneca's boss has said the pharma firm is likely to do another global trial to see how effective its coronavirus vaccine is, after current studies raised questions over its level of protection.

The price of Bitcoin has dropped 11pc from its three-year high: one Bitcoin now costs $17,220 (£12,900) down from £14,500 just 24 hours ago, according to Coinbase, a cryptocurrency trading site. The digital currency, often referred to as “ digital gold” due to its finite supply and supposed low correlation with stocks and bonds, was on the cusp of reaching an all-time high of £15,000 before traders turned against it.

Nothing majorly new from Boris Johnson's speech, but a few takeaways:

Workers should continue to work from home, if they can
Shops, gyms, places of worships, cinemas, hospitality (in some capacity) are opening across all tiers
"Tough measures in our winter plan are the best way to avoid" a lockdown in the new year
Tier allocations will be reviewed every 14 days
Johnson has no doubt that in Spring - after lockdowns, with testing and hopefully a vaccine - we can "reclaim our lives and all the things we love"
The government has supplied about 200,000 laptops to schools to aid remote learning, but urges keeping schools open is a priority

[Bloomberg]

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian equities are ending the week in a cautious fashion as investors assess valuations following the rapid rise in global stocks this month and the enduring pandemic in parts of Europe and the U.S. Oil retreated amid rising tensions within OPEC+ members.

Shares underperformed in Australia and Hong Kong, while Japan edged up, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index remained on course for a 12% November surge. S&P 500 contracts dipped and Treasuries advanced. Volumes may be lower than average on Friday with reduced trading hours for U.S. stocks and bonds. Bitcoin steadied after sliding almost 10% on Thursday. The dollar ticked lower and the yen outperformed.

Even with three potentially successful vaccines on the table, sentiment remains fragile as the virus toll continues to rise in Europe and the U.S., leading German Chancellor Angela Merkel to call on Europe’s ski resorts to close this winter. AstraZeneca Plc is likely to conduct a further global trial of its vaccine after current studies raised questions, CEO Pascal Soriot said in an interview. The task of vaccinating the world’s population is rife with logistical problems, all while the virus gains ground and economic recoveries wobble.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The day after Thanksgiving in the US and the US markets close earlier at 1pm ET today. As such, we may well drift a bit today on the FTSE as well. Annoying that the short order at 6416 missed by a point yesterday as that was subsequently a decent drop down from there to an overnight low of 6327, which is now set up as short term support.

That said, initial support this morning is a bit higher at 6350 as following the overnight climb from that low, the moving averages are setting up on the 30min for a bullish cross. So, with 6350, and 6327 as the main supports for today, we may not get any lower. However, if the bears were to break below that then 6310 is the next main area of support on the daily, with the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel here, along with S1 at 6312. If the bears went mad today, and I am not expecting them too, then 6267 is the lower support.

For the bulls, they will need to break the pivot at 6364 to start with, and then a more significant test of the 30m 200ema to start with at 6376 looks likely. We may well see a reaction here, before another push up to the more significant resistance at 6401 - with the key fib here, and also key 2h resistance from both the Hull moving average and the coral, we may well see the bulls struggle to push past this today. Above this then R2 is 6444 - feels a big ask to get that high today though.

The S&P has 2 hour resistance at 3641 to start with and post Thanksgiving we may well see some buying - tips swapped over a Turkey can see some speculative purchases. In a good sign for the bulls it has defended that 3615 level again overnight though, but the big test will be a push through the 3660 level - 3690 top of the 10 day Raff channel then beckons. Might be Monday for that sort of rise though.

So, watching 6350 and 6400 as the range, though the outlier support at 6327 maybe seen again. Have a good session - remember Friday can pay to do reduced stakes. Have a good weekend as well.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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