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Its Fed Week | 7265 7297 7330 7349 resistance | 7240 7213 7180 support | Asia wavers Monday

#1 · 25th July 2022, 10:03 am

Quote from Nick on 25th July 2022, 10:03 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 edged 0.1pc higher and ended the week 1.8pc higher, its best weekly performance in nearly a month, while the mid-cap index rose 0.6pc, ending the week 5.2pc higher, helped by strong earnings updates.
However, stocks slipped and US equity futures wavered Monday, sapped by a dimming economic outlook that’s also cooling expectations for peak interest rates and supporting sovereign bonds.
Declines in Japan as well as in Chinese technology shares dragged down Asian equities. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures struggled to stay out of the red, while European contracts shed more than 0.5%.
Bond yields eased amid bets that a U.S. recession would slow the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign, with markets looking for policy clues from its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which begins on Tuesday.
At the same time, the dollar built on its recovery from a 2 1/2-week low against major peers, supported by demand for the U.S. currency as a safe haven.
Japan’s Nikkei retreated 0.75%, while Chinese blue chips eased 0.13%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.45%, with its tech index tumbling 1.51%
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares lost 0.62% to 158.68, after touching the highest since June 29 at 160.03 on Friday.
U.S. S&P 500 emini futures slipped 0.09%, pointing to an extension of the benchmark’s 0.93% slump on Friday, when a survey showed business activity contracting for the first time in nearly two years amid persistently heated inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. Earlier that day, data also showed euro zone business activity unexpectedly shrank.
Nasdaq futures eased 0.04%, after a 1.77% tumble for the tech-heavy stock index, as the bottom dropped out from under Snap Inc after the Snapchat owner posted its weakest-ever sales growth.
The Fed concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday and markets are priced for a 75 basis-point rate hike, with about a 9% chance of a full one percentage-point increase.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 25th July 2022
A decent drop on Friday from the 7315 level but the bulls have defended the 7240 level that it dropped to on Friday. For today they will need to push through the 7265 level where we have the daily pivot and the now red 30m coral, as that is initial resistance. Of course the big news this week is the Fed and how big the interest rate rise will be. The forecast is for an increase to 2.5%. Thats out on Wednesday at 19:00.
Above the 7265 level then 7298 is R1 and the key fib, and if we get a drop off that its a lower low which would suggest a move down this week. The S&P looks like it may well see a drop down to the 3900 level this week, and the bulls will be keen to defend this level. Above 7300 then that 7350 level remains in play should Friday's high be exceeded, and tallies with R2 for today. Above that then 7425 is the ultimate target in the short term for the bulls.
Support wise, 7215 area is key to start with as we have S1 here, and then the key fib just below that at 7198. The bears will ultimately be looking to drive it down towards the 7000 level again and we have the daily support at 7007 for the moment. Not expecting that low today and it will be interesting to see if any drop down to the 7215 level gets defended. The bulls have the slight upper hand at the moment, but that could easily change!
The BoE will also be looking at the Fed rate increase as the size of that will likely filter through to the size of the increase from them as well at the next announcement.
The FTSE100 daily chart is on the cusp of going bullish if the bulls can keep the momentum going, and we may well get a positive cross on the EMAs today/tomorrow which would lock in 7230ish as support.
The daily chart for the S&P500 is still bullish with the 3891 level for the 25ema and thus the key support. As mentioned above should we get a drop down to this level then I would like to see that hold for a push back up towards 4000.
Not too much more to say today, keep an eye on 7265, 7300 and 7327 as resistance, 7215 as support. Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 edged 0.1pc higher and ended the week 1.8pc higher, its best weekly performance in nearly a month, while the mid-cap index rose 0.6pc, ending the week 5.2pc higher, helped by strong earnings updates.

However, stocks slipped and US equity futures wavered Monday, sapped by a dimming economic outlook that’s also cooling expectations for peak interest rates and supporting sovereign bonds.

Declines in Japan as well as in Chinese technology shares dragged down Asian equities. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures struggled to stay out of the red, while European contracts shed more than 0.5%.

Bond yields eased amid bets that a U.S. recession would slow the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign, with markets looking for policy clues from its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which begins on Tuesday.

At the same time, the dollar built on its recovery from a 2 1/2-week low against major peers, supported by demand for the U.S. currency as a safe haven.

Japan’s Nikkei retreated 0.75%, while Chinese blue chips eased 0.13%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.45%, with its tech index tumbling 1.51%
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares lost 0.62% to 158.68, after touching the highest since June 29 at 160.03 on Friday.

U.S. S&P 500 emini futures slipped 0.09%, pointing to an extension of the benchmark’s 0.93% slump on Friday, when a survey showed business activity contracting for the first time in nearly two years amid persistently heated inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. Earlier that day, data also showed euro zone business activity unexpectedly shrank.

Nasdaq futures eased 0.04%, after a 1.77% tumble for the tech-heavy stock index, as the bottom dropped out from under Snap Inc after the Snapchat owner posted its weakest-ever sales growth.

The Fed concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday and markets are priced for a 75 basis-point rate hike, with about a 9% chance of a full one percentage-point increase.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 25th July 2022

A decent drop on Friday from the 7315 level but the bulls have defended the 7240 level that it dropped to on Friday. For today they will need to push through the 7265 level where we have the daily pivot and the now red 30m coral, as that is initial resistance. Of course the big news this week is the Fed and how big the interest rate rise will be. The forecast is for an increase to 2.5%. Thats out on Wednesday at 19:00.

Above the 7265 level then 7298 is R1 and the key fib, and if we get a drop off that its a lower low which would suggest a move down this week. The S&P looks like it may well see a drop down to the 3900 level this week, and the bulls will be keen to defend this level. Above 7300 then that 7350 level remains in play should Friday's high be exceeded, and tallies with R2 for today. Above that then 7425 is the ultimate target in the short term for the bulls.

Support wise, 7215 area is key to start with as we have S1 here, and then the key fib just below that at 7198. The bears will ultimately be looking to drive it down towards the 7000 level again and we have the daily support at 7007 for the moment. Not expecting that low today and it will be interesting to see if any drop down to the 7215 level gets defended. The bulls have the slight upper hand at the moment, but that could easily change!

The BoE will also be looking at the Fed rate increase as the size of that will likely filter through to the size of the increase from them as well at the next announcement.

The FTSE100 daily chart is on the cusp of going bullish if the bulls can keep the momentum going, and we may well get a positive cross on the EMAs today/tomorrow which would lock in 7230ish as support.

The daily chart for the S&P500 is still bullish with the 3891 level for the 25ema and thus the key support. As mentioned above should we get a drop down to this level then I would like to see that hold for a push back up towards 4000.

Not too much more to say today, keep an eye on 7265, 7300 and 7327 as resistance, 7215 as support. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates