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Its Fed day with 75bps rise expected | 7230 7280 resistance | 7171 7120 support

#1 · 2nd November 2022, 11:59 am

Quote from Nick on 2nd November 2022, 11:59 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 2nd November 2022
Yesterday we got the rise and dip play out as the new month started, with the S&P dropping steadily from the 3920 level. As such the 2h chart for that is now bearish with strong resistance at the 3888 level and ergo a short here looks to be worth taking. Of course the big news today is the Fed interest rate with 75bps expected. What will have more effect is the rhetoric that goes with it and what future rises will look like - smaller and slower or at a rapid pace still? Inflation is still rampant and the job data yesterday doesn't help the likelihood of slowing rate rises either. The rate news is released at 18:00, with the press conference following at 18:30
The BoE are still slated for a rate increase as well tomorrow, with an increase to 3%. Target still remains about 5% ultimately I expect.
So initially today for the FTSE100 we may well see a kick up to the daily resistance at the 7220 area, as the bulls managed to get it above 7180 yesterday. Just above that though we have R1 and the key fib at the 7233/7228 level so a short here would be worth a go. Above that though and the bulls should manage 7241 for the daily 200ema (daily chart remains bullish though, with 25ema support at 7050) but more likely a push up towards the 7270 level.
Seasonality continues to play out well despite the rate increases etc, with the rally playing out following the drop in October.
For the bears then the main support they will need to break is 7171 where we have the daily pivot, and also another test of the 2h Hull MA here. If they were to do so then a slide down to S1 and the 320m 20ema at 7120, along with the key fib here, looks possible whereupon the bulls may reappear to set up a bounce. Ultimately we may see a drop down to test the 25ema at some point (7050 currently) then the Santa rally to kick in proper from that line. Probably later this month.
Looks like a buy the rumour sell the news sort of day. Of course, if the Fed rate increase is lower than the expected 75bps then we may well see the S&P500 push up higher past 3890.
The Raff channels are now all heading up across the board, and the daily MAs on all three markets we analyse are positive.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 2nd November 2022

Yesterday we got the rise and dip play out as the new month started, with the S&P dropping steadily from the 3920 level. As such the 2h chart for that is now bearish with strong resistance at the 3888 level and ergo a short here looks to be worth taking. Of course the big news today is the Fed interest rate with 75bps expected. What will have more effect is the rhetoric that goes with it and what future rises will look like - smaller and slower or at a rapid pace still? Inflation is still rampant and the job data yesterday doesn't help the likelihood of slowing rate rises either. The rate news is released at 18:00, with the press conference following at 18:30

The BoE are still slated for a rate increase as well tomorrow, with an increase to 3%. Target still remains about 5% ultimately I expect.

So initially today for the FTSE100 we may well see a kick up to the daily resistance at the 7220 area, as the bulls managed to get it above 7180 yesterday. Just above that though we have R1 and the key fib at the 7233/7228 level so a short here would be worth a go. Above that though and the bulls should manage 7241 for the daily 200ema (daily chart remains bullish though, with 25ema support at 7050) but more likely a push up towards the 7270 level.

Seasonality continues to play out well despite the rate increases etc, with the rally playing out following the drop in October.

For the bears then the main support they will need to break is 7171 where we have the daily pivot, and also another test of the 2h Hull MA here. If they were to do so then a slide down to S1 and the 320m 20ema at 7120, along with the key fib here, looks possible whereupon the bulls may reappear to set up a bounce. Ultimately we may see a drop down to test the 25ema at some point (7050 currently) then the Santa rally to kick in proper from that line. Probably later this month.

Looks like a buy the rumour sell the news sort of day. Of course, if the Fed rate increase is lower than the expected 75bps then we may well see the S&P500 push up higher past 3890.

The Raff channels are now all heading up across the board, and the daily MAs on all three markets we analyse are positive.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates