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Inflation worries | Fed today | BoE tomorrow | 6815 6840 resistance | 6768 6748 support

#1 · 17th March 2021, 9:53 am

Quote from Nick on 17th March 2021, 9:53 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th March 2021
Inflation has replaced Covid as the top worry for international investors for the first time since February 2020, as the vaccine rollout raises hopes the worst of the pandemic has passed. Financiers are instead increasingly concerned about inflation, with fears that the post-lockdown recovery could overheat in a dangerous boom.

Inflation was cited as the top worry by 37pc in a BofA Global Research survey of 225 investment professionals managing $645bn in assets. This reflects growing unease that a surging recovery combined with US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package could send prices spiralling as the economy struggles to produce enough goods and services to match demand.
The FTSE 250 as a whole rose solidly, outperforming most European indices with the vast majority of its members rising. Gains were moderate but slightly more muted on the FTSE 100, with pharmaceuticals giant AstraZeneca rising 254p to £72.32 and giving the index a heavyweight upwards nudge as the European Medicines Agency offered a continued endorsement of the group’s Covid-19 vaccine.
AstraZeneca U-Turn
Some of the EU's biggest governments are hinting that they may be ready to lift AstraZeneca suspensions. Italy and France will green-light the vaccine again if the European Medicines Agency advises it's safe in a statement expected on Thursday. A South African study showed AstraZeneca's shot didn’t offer much protection against its virus variation. Vaccine nationalism in countries including the U.S. and India may hamper rollout in poorer and middle-income countries, according to Adar Poonwalla, CEO of the Serum Institute, world's biggest vaccine maker. In Hong Kong, social-distancing measures will be extended to Mar. 31 and HSBC's main office in the city will be closed until further notice. Cases are at record highs in the Pacific's most populous nation, Papua New Guinea, where the outbreak could have geopolitical implications.
Steady Stocks
Asian stocks are set to open steady Wednesday as investors weigh the strength of the economic recovery ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy comments. Benchmark Treasury yields hovered near their highest levels in over a year. The S&P 500 closed lower after three sessions of record-breaking gains, Apple and Microsoft lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from a record high. Futures were little changed in Japan, fell in Australia and rose in Hong Kong. Oil retreated and the dollar was steady. Bitcoin traded around $56,000, down from a weekend peak above $61,000.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks weakened Wednesday as investors assessed the strength of the economic recovery against the risk of a shift in the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy projections. Benchmark Treasury yields hovered near their highest levels in over a year.
Modest declines across regional stock indexes weighed on MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific gauge. China swung between gains and losses, while South Korea’s index underperformed. Equity futures in Europe and the U.S. ticked lower after a weaker close for the S&P 500 Index snapped three sessions of record-breaking gains. Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.
The Treasury 10-year yield held around 1.61% heading into day two of the Fed’s meeting, after a 20-year bond auction drew strong demand. Market-implied inflation expectations are at 12-year highs, and oil was steady below $65 a barrel. The dollar was stronger versus most major peers.
The Fed’s updates to the outlook for rates and the economy, due Wednesday, are center stage as the global recovery gains traction. Rates markets are positioned for a hike sooner than the central bank’s current guidance suggests, with rising inflation expectations boosting bond yields and sparking a rotation from growth to value stocks. Seasoned bond investor Bill Gross predicted in a Bloomberg TV interview that inflation will rise to 3% to 4% in the coming months.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The bulls failed to break the 6810 level yesterday and in fact we have that level for initial resistance again with R1 here for today. The big news today of course is the Fed update to the outlook for rates and the economy later and will provide direction for the rest of the week. 18:00 this evening for that. The S&P500 is tantalisingly close to the 4000 level but as so many are expecting it we will provably fail just shy! 3984 is the 2h resistance for today if the bulls can break above the 3971 level.
For the FTSE 100, above the 6816 level then ultimately there is still a chance that we will see the daily resistance level at 6935 where we have the top of the 10 day Raff channel currently. I don't think we will get this high today as we have R3 at 6865 in the way. Prior to that we have the key fib level and R2 lining up at 6839. That is also the cam break out level so I am thinking that we may well see a stutter here on any rises.
Overall I think we may see a dip and rise play out and I am looking at the 6790 daily pivot as the first main support, then 6765 below that as we have a cluster of supports here - namely S1 and 200ema on the 30m. Lower down we have the key fib at 6748 and 6750 has held well on the few recent tests.
The bulls are certainly hanging onto this 6800 area well, though neither bulls nor bears are pulling away from it much so far.
So, not much more to say, with the Fed later we may well see a bit of buy the rumour sell the news on the US markets this afternoon. Good luck today.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th March 2021

Inflation has replaced Covid as the top worry for international investors for the first time since February 2020, as the vaccine rollout raises hopes the worst of the pandemic has passed. Financiers are instead increasingly concerned about inflation, with fears that the post-lockdown recovery could overheat in a dangerous boom.

Inflation was cited as the top worry by 37pc in a BofA Global Research survey of 225 investment professionals managing $645bn in assets. This reflects growing unease that a surging recovery combined with US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package could send prices spiralling as the economy struggles to produce enough goods and services to match demand.

The FTSE 250 as a whole rose solidly, outperforming most European indices with the vast majority of its members rising. Gains were moderate but slightly more muted on the FTSE 100, with pharmaceuticals giant AstraZeneca rising 254p to £72.32 and giving the index a heavyweight upwards nudge as the European Medicines Agency offered a continued endorsement of the group’s Covid-19 vaccine.

AstraZeneca U-Turn

Some of the EU's biggest governments are hinting that they may be ready to lift AstraZeneca suspensions. Italy and France will green-light the vaccine again if the European Medicines Agency advises it's safe in a statement expected on Thursday. A South African study showed AstraZeneca's shot didn’t offer much protection against its virus variation. Vaccine nationalism in countries including the U.S. and India may hamper rollout in poorer and middle-income countries, according to Adar Poonwalla, CEO of the Serum Institute, world's biggest vaccine maker. In Hong Kong, social-distancing measures will be extended to Mar. 31 and HSBC's main office in the city will be closed until further notice. Cases are at record highs in the Pacific's most populous nation, Papua New Guinea, where the outbreak could have geopolitical implications.

Steady Stocks

Asian stocks are set to open steady Wednesday as investors weigh the strength of the economic recovery ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy comments. Benchmark Treasury yields hovered near their highest levels in over a year. The S&P 500 closed lower after three sessions of record-breaking gains, Apple and Microsoft lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from a record high. Futures were little changed in Japan, fell in Australia and rose in Hong Kong. Oil retreated and the dollar was steady. Bitcoin traded around $56,000, down from a weekend peak above $61,000.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks weakened Wednesday as investors assessed the strength of the economic recovery against the risk of a shift in the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy projections. Benchmark Treasury yields hovered near their highest levels in over a year.

Modest declines across regional stock indexes weighed on MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific gauge. China swung between gains and losses, while South Korea’s index underperformed. Equity futures in Europe and the U.S. ticked lower after a weaker close for the S&P 500 Index snapped three sessions of record-breaking gains. Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.

The Treasury 10-year yield held around 1.61% heading into day two of the Fed’s meeting, after a 20-year bond auction drew strong demand. Market-implied inflation expectations are at 12-year highs, and oil was steady below $65 a barrel. The dollar was stronger versus most major peers.

The Fed’s updates to the outlook for rates and the economy, due Wednesday, are center stage as the global recovery gains traction. Rates markets are positioned for a hike sooner than the central bank’s current guidance suggests, with rising inflation expectations boosting bond yields and sparking a rotation from growth to value stocks. Seasoned bond investor Bill Gross predicted in a Bloomberg TV interview that inflation will rise to 3% to 4% in the coming months.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The bulls failed to break the 6810 level yesterday and in fact we have that level for initial resistance again with R1 here for today. The big news today of course is the Fed update to the outlook for rates and the economy later and will provide direction for the rest of the week. 18:00 this evening for that. The S&P500 is tantalisingly close to the 4000 level but as so many are expecting it we will provably fail just shy! 3984 is the 2h resistance for today if the bulls can break above the 3971 level.

For the FTSE 100, above the 6816 level then ultimately there is still a chance that we will see the daily resistance level at 6935 where we have the top of the 10 day Raff channel currently. I don't think we will get this high today as we have R3 at 6865 in the way. Prior to that we have the key fib level and R2 lining up at 6839. That is also the cam break out level so I am thinking that we may well see a stutter here on any rises.

Overall I think we may see a dip and rise play out and I am looking at the 6790 daily pivot as the first main support, then 6765 below that as we have a cluster of supports here - namely S1 and 200ema on the 30m. Lower down we have the key fib at 6748 and 6750 has held well on the few recent tests.

The bulls are certainly hanging onto this 6800 area well, though neither bulls nor bears are pulling away from it much so far.

So, not much more to say, with the Fed later we may well see a bit of buy the rumour sell the news on the US markets this afternoon. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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