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Good start to February - can it continue? | 6535 6552 6601 resistance | 6480 6440 support

#1 · 2nd February 2021, 10:27 am

Quote from Nick on 2nd February 2021, 10:27 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 2nd February 2021
UK equities rose moderately during the day, recovering some of the ground lost during a sharp sell-off on Friday. Movements were largely unaffected by the pound, which held broadly flat through the session.
Precious metal miners outperformed on both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 as retail investment interest in the wake of last week’s market ructions spilled on to silver, sending its price sharply higher.

New York's tech-heavy Nasdaq index climbed 2pc to 13,332.75 by just before midday as some of the world's largest tech firms rallied. Heavyweights Amazon and Google's parent Alphabet - both set to report earnings on Tuesday - gained 2.9pc and 3pc respectively.
Myanmar Test
President Joe Biden said the U.S. could reinstate sanctions on Myanmar if the Southeast Asian country’s military doesn’t “immediately relinquish the power they have seized” and release activists and officials. The military takeover could prove to be an early test case of the Biden administration’s vow to defend democracy “wherever it is under attack,” as the president’s statement said. If carried out, the policy would represent an abrupt shift from the Trump administration, which often muted traditional criticism of authoritarian governments.
Markets Rally
Asian stocks looked set to open higher Tuesday after U.S. shares had their biggest rally in about 10 weeks, as concerns eased that the recent onslaught of speculative buying will derail the equity bull market. The dollar climbed. Futures rose in Japan and Australia. In a broad-based advance led by technology and retail companies, the S&P 500 Index rebounded from last week’s selloff as the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.5%. Elsewhere, Treasuries were steady. Oil surged.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks advanced with U.S. and European futures Tuesday on renewed hopes for stimulus, progress on vaccinations and receding concerns about volatile retail trading. Silver pulled back from an eight-year high.
Most major Asian markets climbed with technology shares outperforming ahead of earnings Tuesday from Amazon.com Inc. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. S&P 500 futures rose after the gauge rebounded from last week’s selloff in a broad-based advance. European contracts pointed higher. Earlier, GameStop Corp. tumbled as bearish investors appeared to cover their positions.
Silver futures retreated after a key exchange hiked trading margins amid warnings about a rally stoked by retail traders. Treasuries were steady, the dollar edged lower and oil climbed. The long end of the Treasury curve hit its steepest since 2016, underscoring ongoing confidence in a global recovery. Australian bonds rose after the country’s central bank pledged to buy more securities when it’s current asset purchase program concludes.
Signs of progress toward fresh U.S. stimulus and expanding vaccination programs have boosted sentiment, as fears recede that speculative buying will derail the equity bull market. President Joe Biden and a group of Republican senators will continue negotiating a bipartisan pandemic relief plan after a “very productive” two-hour meeting at the White House, according to an aide.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Well we got the new month money helping the rise yesterday and actually kept that bullish momentum overnight as the FTSE has risen to test the 6515 level where we have the top of the 10 day Raff channel. As such, we may well see a bit of a dip from here, and a possible bear Tuesday, as we drop off, at least initially. The S&P is also coming into resistance at 3800 where we have R1, along with the top of the 10 day channel at 3810. The key fib is also at 3816, so again we may well see the bears have a go here.
That said, the ASX200 session was pretty bullish all day and with yesterday's rise the FTSE 100 2 hour chart has gone bullish with support at 6405 for today. Should we get that low then we may well see that level hold. I am thinking a bit of a dip and rise playing out today.
Initial resistance for the FTSE is at the 6510 level and then the fib level at 6535, with R1 just above at 6553. We may well see the bulls falter in this sort of area, especially if the S&P starts to turn at the 3800 level.
For support 6483 is the 30m coral line to start with, and would be the first test of this since it turned green, so should see a reaction, but better support is at the daily pivot level at 6440. 6453 is also the key fib. Below both of these the 6405 level as mentioned is support on the 2 hour chart.
On the daily chart the moving average resistance level of 6600 is the 25ema and should that be tested anytime soon, we may well see some swing shorts load up. Interestingly the Dax is just testing the 25ema on its daily chart at 13707 so will be interesting to see what happens here. False breakout above possibly then a drop back would probably play out.
I am thinking that the bulls might have a bit of a job to breakout too much above the 10 day channel today so favouring shorting the rallies today. The S&P could also do with a pullback from this level again before any push higher, 3730 is the 2h support now, so a dip down to that would fit quite well.
Good luck today, few key FTSE levels in play for today as you can see from the trade plan below.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 2nd February 2021

UK equities rose moderately during the day, recovering some of the ground lost during a sharp sell-off on Friday. Movements were largely unaffected by the pound, which held broadly flat through the session.

Precious metal miners outperformed on both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 as retail investment interest in the wake of last week’s market ructions spilled on to silver, sending its price sharply higher.

New York's tech-heavy Nasdaq index climbed 2pc to 13,332.75 by just before midday as some of the world's largest tech firms rallied. Heavyweights Amazon and Google's parent Alphabet - both set to report earnings on Tuesday - gained 2.9pc and 3pc respectively.

Myanmar Test
President Joe Biden said the U.S. could reinstate sanctions on Myanmar if the Southeast Asian country’s military doesn’t “immediately relinquish the power they have seized” and release activists and officials. The military takeover could prove to be an early test case of the Biden administration’s vow to defend democracy “wherever it is under attack,” as the president’s statement said. If carried out, the policy would represent an abrupt shift from the Trump administration, which often muted traditional criticism of authoritarian governments.

Markets Rally
Asian stocks looked set to open higher Tuesday after U.S. shares had their biggest rally in about 10 weeks, as concerns eased that the recent onslaught of speculative buying will derail the equity bull market. The dollar climbed. Futures rose in Japan and Australia. In a broad-based advance led by technology and retail companies, the S&P 500 Index rebounded from last week’s selloff as the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.5%. Elsewhere, Treasuries were steady. Oil surged.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks advanced with U.S. and European futures Tuesday on renewed hopes for stimulus, progress on vaccinations and receding concerns about volatile retail trading. Silver pulled back from an eight-year high.

Most major Asian markets climbed with technology shares outperforming ahead of earnings Tuesday from Amazon.com Inc. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. S&P 500 futures rose after the gauge rebounded from last week’s selloff in a broad-based advance. European contracts pointed higher. Earlier, GameStop Corp. tumbled as bearish investors appeared to cover their positions.

Silver futures retreated after a key exchange hiked trading margins amid warnings about a rally stoked by retail traders. Treasuries were steady, the dollar edged lower and oil climbed. The long end of the Treasury curve hit its steepest since 2016, underscoring ongoing confidence in a global recovery. Australian bonds rose after the country’s central bank pledged to buy more securities when it’s current asset purchase program concludes.

Signs of progress toward fresh U.S. stimulus and expanding vaccination programs have boosted sentiment, as fears recede that speculative buying will derail the equity bull market. President Joe Biden and a group of Republican senators will continue negotiating a bipartisan pandemic relief plan after a “very productive” two-hour meeting at the White House, according to an aide.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Well we got the new month money helping the rise yesterday and actually kept that bullish momentum overnight as the FTSE has risen to test the 6515 level where we have the top of the 10 day Raff channel. As such, we may well see a bit of a dip from here, and a possible bear Tuesday, as we drop off, at least initially. The S&P is also coming into resistance at 3800 where we have R1, along with the top of the 10 day channel at 3810. The key fib is also at 3816, so again we may well see the bears have a go here.

That said, the ASX200 session was pretty bullish all day and with yesterday's rise the FTSE 100 2 hour chart has gone bullish with support at 6405 for today. Should we get that low then we may well see that level hold. I am thinking a bit of a dip and rise playing out today.

Initial resistance for the FTSE is at the 6510 level and then the fib level at 6535, with R1 just above at 6553. We may well see the bulls falter in this sort of area, especially if the S&P starts to turn at the 3800 level.

For support 6483 is the 30m coral line to start with, and would be the first test of this since it turned green, so should see a reaction, but better support is at the daily pivot level at 6440. 6453 is also the key fib. Below both of these the 6405 level as mentioned is support on the 2 hour chart.

On the daily chart the moving average resistance level of 6600 is the 25ema and should that be tested anytime soon, we may well see some swing shorts load up. Interestingly the Dax is just testing the 25ema on its daily chart at 13707 so will be interesting to see what happens here. False breakout above possibly then a drop back would probably play out.

I am thinking that the bulls might have a bit of a job to breakout too much above the 10 day channel today so favouring shorting the rallies today. The S&P could also do with a pullback from this level again before any push higher, 3730 is the 2h support now, so a dip down to that would fit quite well.

Good luck today, few key FTSE levels in play for today as you can see from the trade plan below.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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