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FTSE100 range bound 7490 7540 | 7470 7440 support below | 7576 7614 above

#1 · 23rd August 2022, 9:43 am

Quote from Nick on 23rd August 2022, 9:43 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The euro tumbled back below dollar parity to hit a 20-year low and sterling slipped to its worst level in two years as traders were panicked by a further surge in gas prices on Monday. Markets were gripped by fears of a bleak winter for the UK and eurozone after Russia announced a three-day closure of the Nordstream 1 gas pipeline for unscheduled maintenance.
The euro slumped 1.1pc against the dollar in afternoon trade to hit $0.9928, its lowest since 2002. Sterling dropped as much as 0.7pc to $1.1742, a level last reached at the start of the pandemic.
Stock markets also sold off on mounting recession fears, with eurozone blue-chip shares plunging almost 2pc and the FTSE 100 dropping 0.2pc. In America, the tech-focused Nasdaq fell 2.5pc and the broader S&P 500 dropped 2.1pc.
Recession jitters were stoked by a jump in European gas prices to a new all-time peak of €295 (£250) per megawatt hour on fears of Vladimir Putin choking off energy supplies.
Global stocks dropped toward the lowest levels of the month on Tuesday and sovereign bonds nursed losses as worries about tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy filtered across markets.
The equity weakness lopped about 0.8% off MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures stabilized, eking out gains after slumps of more than 2% in both indexes on Monday. European contracts wavered.
Benchmark gas prices in the European Union surged 13% overnight to a record peak, having doubled in just a month to be 14 times higher than the average of the past decade.
Analysts at Citi warned inflation in Britain could top 18% if energy prices were not restrained.
European and British manufacturing surveys due later on Tuesday were expected to highlight the damage being done to activity, with Germany seen deeper in contractionary territory.
In Asia, unease over China’s economy continued to percolate as a cut in lending rates and talk of a fresh round of official loans to property developers underlined stresses in the sector.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures were both off a fraction after sliding overnight. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both edged up 0.1%, but that followed sharp falls on Monday when rising bond yields undermined tech shares.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield hit a five-week high of 3.040% on Monday, while the 30-year yield climbed to a seven-week peak of 3.268%. Ten-year yields were last trading at 3.029%, up 50 basis points from the lows of early August.
The move in part reflects hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials which has led the market to price in a 55% chance of a 75 basis-point hike to 3.0-3.25% in September, and a peak for rates around 3.75%.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 23rd August 2022
In light of everything the FTSE100 has been quite resilient, bouncing between the 7490 and 7540 levels. We will inevitably get a break soon and a drop down to the daily support at 7468 for a bear Tuesday may well play out today. We also have the key fib here to lend some support as well.
Below that then the bears will be looking at 7440, which could tie in with the S&P dropping down to the 4100 area, as it looks like it wants to do. The bears managed to move it below the 4140 25ema on the daily yesterday, scuppering the bulls hopes of a rise back towards the 4200 area. 7440 may well see a bounce should it get that low.
Things still look weak, and Citi forecasting UK inflation rising to 18% put the cat amongst the pigeons on the currency markets, though ironically cable dropping helps to underpin the FTSE100 (as a lot of FTSE100 companies earn in dollars).
If the bears break S1 to start with, and that is once again at 7492, then we may well see a slide to those levels mentioned above. On the other hand, if the bulls can break above the daily pivot at 7521 this morning then a rise back towards 7553 for a R1 test would likely play out. That is just above the now red 2h coral at 7541, so a stutter around this area is highly likely on any rise.
Above that 7553 then 7576 is once again in play (the shorting level we had from Friday) and 7614 R3 above that. Feels a big ask to get that high today though, especially as the S&P500 looks like it wants to slide to 4100!
It's worth noting that the FTSE100 is currently also testing the bottom of the Raff channels, both of which are around the 7490 level. The bulls will certainly be keen to defend the drops today in light of that.
The ASX200 had a pretty bearish session today and we may well follow suit. The usual August chop however does continue, so stay nimble, and keep an eye on the key levels mentioned elsewhere in this email.
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The euro tumbled back below dollar parity to hit a 20-year low and sterling slipped to its worst level in two years as traders were panicked by a further surge in gas prices on Monday. Markets were gripped by fears of a bleak winter for the UK and eurozone after Russia announced a three-day closure of the Nordstream 1 gas pipeline for unscheduled maintenance.

The euro slumped 1.1pc against the dollar in afternoon trade to hit $0.9928, its lowest since 2002. Sterling dropped as much as 0.7pc to $1.1742, a level last reached at the start of the pandemic.

Stock markets also sold off on mounting recession fears, with eurozone blue-chip shares plunging almost 2pc and the FTSE 100 dropping 0.2pc. In America, the tech-focused Nasdaq fell 2.5pc and the broader S&P 500 dropped 2.1pc.

Recession jitters were stoked by a jump in European gas prices to a new all-time peak of €295 (£250) per megawatt hour on fears of Vladimir Putin choking off energy supplies.

Global stocks dropped toward the lowest levels of the month on Tuesday and sovereign bonds nursed losses as worries about tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy filtered across markets.

The equity weakness lopped about 0.8% off MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures stabilized, eking out gains after slumps of more than 2% in both indexes on Monday. European contracts wavered.

Benchmark gas prices in the European Union surged 13% overnight to a record peak, having doubled in just a month to be 14 times higher than the average of the past decade.

Analysts at Citi warned inflation in Britain could top 18% if energy prices were not restrained.

European and British manufacturing surveys due later on Tuesday were expected to highlight the damage being done to activity, with Germany seen deeper in contractionary territory.

In Asia, unease over China’s economy continued to percolate as a cut in lending rates and talk of a fresh round of official loans to property developers underlined stresses in the sector.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures were both off a fraction after sliding overnight. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both edged up 0.1%, but that followed sharp falls on Monday when rising bond yields undermined tech shares.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield hit a five-week high of 3.040% on Monday, while the 30-year yield climbed to a seven-week peak of 3.268%. Ten-year yields were last trading at 3.029%, up 50 basis points from the lows of early August.

The move in part reflects hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials which has led the market to price in a 55% chance of a 75 basis-point hike to 3.0-3.25% in September, and a peak for rates around 3.75%.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 23rd August 2022

In light of everything the FTSE100 has been quite resilient, bouncing between the 7490 and 7540 levels. We will inevitably get a break soon and a drop down to the daily support at 7468 for a bear Tuesday may well play out today. We also have the key fib here to lend some support as well.

Below that then the bears will be looking at 7440, which could tie in with the S&P dropping down to the 4100 area, as it looks like it wants to do. The bears managed to move it below the 4140 25ema on the daily yesterday, scuppering the bulls hopes of a rise back towards the 4200 area. 7440 may well see a bounce should it get that low.

Things still look weak, and Citi forecasting UK inflation rising to 18% put the cat amongst the pigeons on the currency markets, though ironically cable dropping helps to underpin the FTSE100 (as a lot of FTSE100 companies earn in dollars).

If the bears break S1 to start with, and that is once again at 7492, then we may well see a slide to those levels mentioned above. On the other hand, if the bulls can break above the daily pivot at 7521 this morning then a rise back towards 7553 for a R1 test would likely play out. That is just above the now red 2h coral at 7541, so a stutter around this area is highly likely on any rise.

Above that 7553 then 7576 is once again in play (the shorting level we had from Friday) and 7614 R3 above that. Feels a big ask to get that high today though, especially as the S&P500 looks like it wants to slide to 4100!

It's worth noting that the FTSE100 is currently also testing the bottom of the Raff channels, both of which are around the 7490 level. The bulls will certainly be keen to defend the drops today in light of that.

The ASX200 had a pretty bearish session today and we may well follow suit. The usual August chop however does continue, so stay nimble, and keep an eye on the key levels mentioned elsewhere in this email.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates