Quote from Nick on 16th April 2020, 9:18 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th April 2020

• Month-on-month US retail sales dropped by 8.7pc as coronavirus hollowed out demand
• International Energy Agency says oil demand will hit 1995 levels this month
• Crude hits an 18-year low
• European stocks, which re-entered technical bull market territory yesterday, drop
• FTSE falls for second session
• Insurers told to speed up payouts as watchdog warns many small business claims will not be valid
• World faces biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression, IMF warns

London's benchmark index tumbled 3.34pc to 5,597.65 while the FTSE 250 dropped 4.57pc to 15,347.56 as the warning from the IMF yesterday finally sunk in.  In the eurozone the Frankfurt Dax in Germany lost 3.9pc and France’s Cac 40 fell by 3.8pc. After being in a down trend for over one week, the US dollar has rebounded, as short covering and bargain hunting have lifted the currency. The upward move in the greenback has hurt EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Much of the ground that European equities have made since mid-March was fuelled by rescue schemes, and more recently, the levelling-off of the rate of infections, but traders are facing up the prospect of a painful economic downturn.

Two Million

The number of coronavirus cases has hit a new grim milestone — 2 million. Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered people in New York to start wearing masks in public, and introduced an antibody test to identify medical personnel and other essential workers who have already had the coronavirus and therefore have some immunity. The European Commission has drawn up plans for a partial lifting of restrictions, but they warned that some will remain until a vaccine or cure is found, and Germany is set to extend curbs even after new cases fell for a sixth day. India, now possibly facing its first contraction in 40 years, will lift some curbs to allow makers of information technology hardware, farmers and industries in rural areas to resume operations after April 20 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi crafts a plan to exit the world’s biggest lockdown and revive stalled economic activity. Still, India’s next problem looks like it could be convincing frightened workers to return. Indonesia, on the other hand, will bring 34 million people under partial lockdown as authorities stepped up efforts ahead of the nation’s biggest festive season next month. And a puzzling development, China’s data on symptom-free cases is showing that most people who test positive for the virus never actually get sick. [Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Most Asian stocks declined along with U.S. equity futures as a slew of weak economic data from the world’s largest economy offered a fresh reminder about the impact of the coronavirus. The dollar extended gains.

The S&P has defended the 2760 level and looks set for a push up towards the 2 hour resistance at 2834 today. There is still chance that it revisits those recent highs and possibly the 200ema on the daily at 2963. The daily chart has also gone bullish, with support at 2699 currently. The fear is that if it breaks below 2760 then it will drop a lot further though. For today though it feels like a rise and dip will play out, in a similar pattern to the ASX200.

The FTSE sold off steadily yesterday and even fell to 5530 overnight as it dipped below the 10 day Raff channel, which has support at 5572 for today. However the algo's have fought back and as I write this we are back at 5600 and looking at rising further, towards the fib at 5660. If we do then the next level of resistance to note is at the 5710 level where we have the key fib and also just below R1 at 5713. As such, we may see the bulls run out of puff here, and that may well coincide with the S&P hitting that 2834 resistance level.

Above the 5715 level then we have 2 hour resistance at 5775 and also the coral has now gone red with 5835 currently - though both these levels are dropping slowly. So it will be interesting to see how far the bulls can take it, if they do. There is still a lot of talk of crashes but I think we could easily see a bit more upside - if for no other reason to squeeze the bears that are loading up at this area. As mentioned above the S&P could still manage to get to 2900 or higher. Cant underestimate the power of stimulus measures.

For the FTSE bears, if we break below 5568 then a retest of the overnight low at 5530 is highly likely, and a test of S1 at 5450 also looms into view. We could also then be sliding towards the 20 day Raff channel bottom at 5330. Thinking positive though I would like to see a rise and dip play out today, as long as the bulls can break above the daily pivot initially at 5625. Good luck today.

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