Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionFOMC today rate rises how much | …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

FOMC today rate rises how much | BoE tomorrow | 7250 7300 7338 resistance | 7139 7127 7061 support

#1 · 15th June 2022, 9:33 am

Quote from Nick on 15th June 2022, 9:33 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 dropped yesterday for a sixth straight session, as investors raised bets on how high central banks would lift interest rates to tackle inflation. After rising as much as 0.9%, the index erased early gains to end 0.3% lower.
Global stock markets have been rattled as investors price in aggressive central bank policy moves to quell inflation against a backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, concerned that this could lead to a global economic slowdown.
US equity futures edged up Wednesday and Asian stocks struggled for traction ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that’s expected to deliver a hefty interest-rate hike to fight inflation.
An Asia-Pacific share gauge wavered, with Chinese technology stocks among the gainers but Japan in the red. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose less than 1%. Wall Street Tuesday cemented its longest losing streak since January. European futures climbed.
Chinese bourses pushed higher in the wake of better-than-expected activity data, though the figures still highlighted challenges from Beijing’s preference for tackling Covid with lockdowns. Industrial output climbed, while retail sales succumbed to a smaller-than-anticipated contraction.
Treasuries steadied following a rout: two-year yields retreated after hitting a level last seen in 2007 and the 10-year yield pulled back from near 3.5%.
Traders anticipate a 75-basis-point hike from the Fed on Wednesday, the biggest since 1994. Parts of the US yield curve remain inverted, signaling concerns that restrictive monetary policy will lead to an economic downturn.
The dollar slipped and the Japanese yen climbed from a 24-year low. The offshore yuan advanced after China’s central bank refrained from cutting a key policy rate. Bitcoin stabilized around $22,000. Oil held under $120 a barrel.
Fears of stagflation have driven stocks into a bear market and triggered a stunning selloff in bonds in recent days. Uncertainty is elevated heading into the Fed decision: increments of 50 basis points, 75 basis points and even 100 basis points have all been chewed over by commentators.
Selloff Continues
Volatility continued to grip financial markets overnight, on concern the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance to fight high inflation will throw the US into recession. The S&P closed lower for a fifth straight day, while futures for Australia and Japan were down. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates 75 basis points as Chair Jerome Powell moves to stamp out inflation, although big investors aren’t hanging around to see what will happen.
Unintended Consequences
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine galvanized the US, UK and EU to unleash a slew of sanctions meant to punish Vladimir Putin’s government and pressure him to pull his forces back. But some Biden administration officials are now privately expressing concern that rather than dissuading the Kremlin as intended, the penalties are instead exacerbating inflation, worsening food insecurity and punishing ordinary Russians more than Putin or his allies. About 1,000 companies have so far announced that they are curtailing operations in Russia.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th June 2022
Todays big event is the FOMC and how much they will raise interest rates by. All sorts of speculation ranging from 50bps to 100bps in an effort to reign in inflation, but also not trigger a full blown recession. Inflation is here to stay and in the UK has been running at double official figures for years so focussing on that too much is probably a lost cause....
Initially today I can see a kick up towards the 7250 resistance level as we have a now green 30m coral with support at 7180 as I am writing this. The 2h chart has also gone bullish again, with support at the 7140 level so if we did drop off to there this morning then a long here may well be worth a go.
The S&P put in a fake break of the 3720 support yesterday and then rallied back pretty well suggesting a short term low is in on that. A wash out below to hoover up some stops on the early longs usually. That may suggest a leaking of the interest rate news today.
Tomorrow we have the BoE as well, with their expected rate rise as well.
Above the 7250 resistance then the bulls will be looking to 7304 where we have the 30m 200ema. Pretty achievable today if the news doesn't upset the bulls. 7260 is also the 2h coral on the way to that so worth keeping an eye on that resistance level.
Should 7300 break then 7338 is R2 and also the test of the 200ema on the daily chart. We could well get that high if they break 7250 today.
Support wise, below the 7180 then 7140 is the next key level with the key fib here, and just above the S1 level of 7127. We also have the 2h Hull MA at around the 7130 level so I would like to see any dip down to here get defended, though again be mindful of possible fake breaks.
S&P500
As mentioned we had that fake break below 3720 yesterday so could wee see a rise today. I am watching 3777 and 3400 as the main resistance levels, with 3716 and possibly 3698 as the key supports.
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 dropped yesterday for a sixth straight session, as investors raised bets on how high central banks would lift interest rates to tackle inflation. After rising as much as 0.9%, the index erased early gains to end 0.3% lower.

Global stock markets have been rattled as investors price in aggressive central bank policy moves to quell inflation against a backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, concerned that this could lead to a global economic slowdown.

US equity futures edged up Wednesday and Asian stocks struggled for traction ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that’s expected to deliver a hefty interest-rate hike to fight inflation.

An Asia-Pacific share gauge wavered, with Chinese technology stocks among the gainers but Japan in the red. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose less than 1%. Wall Street Tuesday cemented its longest losing streak since January. European futures climbed.

Chinese bourses pushed higher in the wake of better-than-expected activity data, though the figures still highlighted challenges from Beijing’s preference for tackling Covid with lockdowns. Industrial output climbed, while retail sales succumbed to a smaller-than-anticipated contraction.

Treasuries steadied following a rout: two-year yields retreated after hitting a level last seen in 2007 and the 10-year yield pulled back from near 3.5%.

Traders anticipate a 75-basis-point hike from the Fed on Wednesday, the biggest since 1994. Parts of the US yield curve remain inverted, signaling concerns that restrictive monetary policy will lead to an economic downturn.

The dollar slipped and the Japanese yen climbed from a 24-year low. The offshore yuan advanced after China’s central bank refrained from cutting a key policy rate. Bitcoin stabilized around $22,000. Oil held under $120 a barrel.

Fears of stagflation have driven stocks into a bear market and triggered a stunning selloff in bonds in recent days. Uncertainty is elevated heading into the Fed decision: increments of 50 basis points, 75 basis points and even 100 basis points have all been chewed over by commentators.

Selloff Continues
Volatility continued to grip financial markets overnight, on concern the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance to fight high inflation will throw the US into recession. The S&P closed lower for a fifth straight day, while futures for Australia and Japan were down. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates 75 basis points as Chair Jerome Powell moves to stamp out inflation, although big investors aren’t hanging around to see what will happen.

Unintended Consequences
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine galvanized the US, UK and EU to unleash a slew of sanctions meant to punish Vladimir Putin’s government and pressure him to pull his forces back. But some Biden administration officials are now privately expressing concern that rather than dissuading the Kremlin as intended, the penalties are instead exacerbating inflation, worsening food insecurity and punishing ordinary Russians more than Putin or his allies. About 1,000 companies have so far announced that they are curtailing operations in Russia.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th June 2022

Todays big event is the FOMC and how much they will raise interest rates by. All sorts of speculation ranging from 50bps to 100bps in an effort to reign in inflation, but also not trigger a full blown recession. Inflation is here to stay and in the UK has been running at double official figures for years so focussing on that too much is probably a lost cause....

Initially today I can see a kick up towards the 7250 resistance level as we have a now green 30m coral with support at 7180 as I am writing this. The 2h chart has also gone bullish again, with support at the 7140 level so if we did drop off to there this morning then a long here may well be worth a go.

The S&P put in a fake break of the 3720 support yesterday and then rallied back pretty well suggesting a short term low is in on that. A wash out below to hoover up some stops on the early longs usually. That may suggest a leaking of the interest rate news today.

Tomorrow we have the BoE as well, with their expected rate rise as well.

Above the 7250 resistance then the bulls will be looking to 7304 where we have the 30m 200ema. Pretty achievable today if the news doesn't upset the bulls. 7260 is also the 2h coral on the way to that so worth keeping an eye on that resistance level.

Should 7300 break then 7338 is R2 and also the test of the 200ema on the daily chart. We could well get that high if they break 7250 today.

Support wise, below the 7180 then 7140 is the next key level with the key fib here, and just above the S1 level of 7127. We also have the 2h Hull MA at around the 7130 level so I would like to see any dip down to here get defended, though again be mindful of possible fake breaks.

S&P500
As mentioned we had that fake break below 3720 yesterday so could wee see a rise today. I am watching 3777 and 3400 as the main resistance levels, with 3716 and possibly 3698 as the key supports.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates