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Feels like we might dip shortly - bear Tuesday? | 6535 6576 6600 resistance | 6490 6450 support

#1 · 9th February 2021, 10:28 am

Quote from Nick on 9th February 2021, 10:28 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 9th February 2021
Oil climbed back above $60 a barrel on Monday, for the first time since Covid hit the global stage, to reach its highest level in more than a year. The market’s hopes of a quicker economic revival on expectation of the $1.9 trillion US stimulus package, the vaccines rollout, as well as supply curbs by producer group Opec and its allies, have buoyed oil prices. Brent crude rose by 2pc to settle at $60.56 per barrel.

Markets were pretty calm on Monday, with the FTSE 100 rising moderately. Mining companies provided most of the upwards drive, as investors continued to bet on global demand making a solid recovery as vaccines cause the pandemic to abate.
Wall Street's main indexes continued with their gains from last week, reaching all-time highs. Investors are, once again, betting on hopes that a fiscal relief package and vaccine roll-outs will help with a speedy economic recovery. Quarterly earnings are also upbeat. Boosting sentiment was US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's coment on Sunday that America would get back to full employment next year if Congress approves the $1.9 trillion package. On Friday Congress approved a budget plan that would allow the stimulus to get through in the coming weeks without Republican support. The government has given out almost 33m doses of vaccines and the daily average of new infections is trending lower.
Tesla Tick
Tesla invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and signaled its intent to begin accepting the cryptocurrency as a form of payment, sending prices to an all-time high of nearly $45,000. The company’s embrace of Bitcoin lends increased legitimacy to electronic currencies, which have become more of a mainstream asset in recent years despite some skepticism. It also fits the maverick image of CEO Elon Musk, who upended the automotive industry with battery-powered vehicles and disrupted the equities market with the stock’s ascension to the blue-chip S&P 500 Index last year.
Markets Pause
The global equity rally looks set to take a breather in Asia Tuesday as investors mull stimulus prospects and virus trends with stocks at record highs. Futures were little changed in Japan and Hong Kong, and dipped in Australia. U.S. stocks rose for the sixth straight session, with the S&P 500 Index closing at an all-time high spurred by fresh signs the Biden administration is committed to passing a sizable aid bill to address unemployment. An increase in vaccination numbers boosted optimism that the economy will take off later this year. Treasuries were little changed and the dollar retreated. Commodities prices pointed to renewed optimism in the global economic recovery. Oil climbed to a near two-year high.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The global equity rally took a breather in Asia Tuesday as investors mulled stimulus prospects and the impact of rising inflation expectations with stocks at record highs. The dollar declined.
Stocks were little changed in Japan and fell in Australia. They edged higher in China and Hong Kong. U.S. and European futures were flat. Earlier, U.S. shares rose for a sixth straight session with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high, spurred by fresh signs the Biden administration is committed to passing a sizable aid bill to address unemployment. Treasuries edged higher.
Commodities prices pointed to renewed optimism in the global economic recovery. Brent oil extended an advance above $60 a barrel on signs the global market is tightening and demand is improving. Bitcoin jumped to a record after Tesla Inc. bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency. Asian cryptocurrency shares surged. The average yield on U.S. junk bonds dropped below 4% for the first time ever on Monday.
Investors are taking comfort from vaccine rollouts and signs of progress on stimulus, though worries remain about stretched valuations. With inflation expectations near the highest since 2013, questions have also begun to be raised about when the so-called reflation trade in bonds could start to threaten equities.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Nice bounce yesterday from the 6505 level and in fact managed to push through the 6550 resistance level before dropping off 6570. Its remained rather pessimistic, even though the S&P futures have pushed on a bit overnight so we could well see a bear Tuesday play out today. The S&P looks like it might well have a push towards the R1 level at 3926 this morning and if so then we may well see the bears appear at this first resistance level.
For the FTSE 100 we have initial resistance from the daily pivot and the 30m coral at 6535 so if we get an initial rise to this area I am thinking that we may well drop off from here. The daily chart remains bearish still, with the EMA resistance having dropped down to 6575 for today. I still thinking that for the FTSE shorting the rallies at the moment is the right stance. Both the Raff channels are heading down now on the FTSE, though the S&P remains bullish for the moment.
Above 6535 then we would also be looking at R1 and the key fib at 6572 - as that ties in with that daily resistance then a short here is worth a go. If the bulls were to break above this though then 6598 is the next level of note, with R3 6635 above that.
For the bears, they will be looking to defend the S1 level at 6499, and we also have the key fib just below that at 6490. A break of this however and we are heading down to 6450 which was the lower resistance level for yesterday and remains in play for the moment. S2 is also just above this at 6466, and S3 at 6431 for today.
So, expecting a bit of a dip today and think that we may well move below 6500. I am watching the S&P quite closely to see if it can hold onto those overnight gains but at the moment both the FTSE and Dax look bearish to start with.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 9th February 2021

Oil climbed back above $60 a barrel on Monday, for the first time since Covid hit the global stage, to reach its highest level in more than a year. The market’s hopes of a quicker economic revival on expectation of the $1.9 trillion US stimulus package, the vaccines rollout, as well as supply curbs by producer group Opec and its allies, have buoyed oil prices. Brent crude rose by 2pc to settle at $60.56 per barrel.

Markets were pretty calm on Monday, with the FTSE 100 rising moderately. Mining companies provided most of the upwards drive, as investors continued to bet on global demand making a solid recovery as vaccines cause the pandemic to abate.

Wall Street's main indexes continued with their gains from last week, reaching all-time highs. Investors are, once again, betting on hopes that a fiscal relief package and vaccine roll-outs will help with a speedy economic recovery. Quarterly earnings are also upbeat. Boosting sentiment was US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's coment on Sunday that America would get back to full employment next year if Congress approves the $1.9 trillion package. On Friday Congress approved a budget plan that would allow the stimulus to get through in the coming weeks without Republican support. The government has given out almost 33m doses of vaccines and the daily average of new infections is trending lower.

Tesla Tick

Tesla invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and signaled its intent to begin accepting the cryptocurrency as a form of payment, sending prices to an all-time high of nearly $45,000. The company’s embrace of Bitcoin lends increased legitimacy to electronic currencies, which have become more of a mainstream asset in recent years despite some skepticism. It also fits the maverick image of CEO Elon Musk, who upended the automotive industry with battery-powered vehicles and disrupted the equities market with the stock’s ascension to the blue-chip S&P 500 Index last year.

Markets Pause

The global equity rally looks set to take a breather in Asia Tuesday as investors mull stimulus prospects and virus trends with stocks at record highs. Futures were little changed in Japan and Hong Kong, and dipped in Australia. U.S. stocks rose for the sixth straight session, with the S&P 500 Index closing at an all-time high spurred by fresh signs the Biden administration is committed to passing a sizable aid bill to address unemployment. An increase in vaccination numbers boosted optimism that the economy will take off later this year. Treasuries were little changed and the dollar retreated. Commodities prices pointed to renewed optimism in the global economic recovery. Oil climbed to a near two-year high.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

The global equity rally took a breather in Asia Tuesday as investors mulled stimulus prospects and the impact of rising inflation expectations with stocks at record highs. The dollar declined.

Stocks were little changed in Japan and fell in Australia. They edged higher in China and Hong Kong. U.S. and European futures were flat. Earlier, U.S. shares rose for a sixth straight session with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high, spurred by fresh signs the Biden administration is committed to passing a sizable aid bill to address unemployment. Treasuries edged higher.

Commodities prices pointed to renewed optimism in the global economic recovery. Brent oil extended an advance above $60 a barrel on signs the global market is tightening and demand is improving. Bitcoin jumped to a record after Tesla Inc. bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency. Asian cryptocurrency shares surged. The average yield on U.S. junk bonds dropped below 4% for the first time ever on Monday.

Investors are taking comfort from vaccine rollouts and signs of progress on stimulus, though worries remain about stretched valuations. With inflation expectations near the highest since 2013, questions have also begun to be raised about when the so-called reflation trade in bonds could start to threaten equities.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Nice bounce yesterday from the 6505 level and in fact managed to push through the 6550 resistance level before dropping off 6570. Its remained rather pessimistic, even though the S&P futures have pushed on a bit overnight so we could well see a bear Tuesday play out today. The S&P looks like it might well have a push towards the R1 level at 3926 this morning and if so then we may well see the bears appear at this first resistance level.

For the FTSE 100 we have initial resistance from the daily pivot and the 30m coral at 6535 so if we get an initial rise to this area I am thinking that we may well drop off from here. The daily chart remains bearish still, with the EMA resistance having dropped down to 6575 for today. I still thinking that for the FTSE shorting the rallies at the moment is the right stance. Both the Raff channels are heading down now on the FTSE, though the S&P remains bullish for the moment.

Above 6535 then we would also be looking at R1 and the key fib at 6572 - as that ties in with that daily resistance then a short here is worth a go. If the bulls were to break above this though then 6598 is the next level of note, with R3 6635 above that.

For the bears, they will be looking to defend the S1 level at 6499, and we also have the key fib just below that at 6490. A break of this however and we are heading down to 6450 which was the lower resistance level for yesterday and remains in play for the moment. S2 is also just above this at 6466, and S3 at 6431 for today.

So, expecting a bit of a dip today and think that we may well move below 6500. I am watching the S&P quite closely to see if it can hold onto those overnight gains but at the moment both the FTSE and Dax look bearish to start with.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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