Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionFed's dovish tone continues | BoE …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

Fed's dovish tone continues | BoE today | 6755 6731 6700 support | 6810 6824 6837 resistance

#1 · 18th March 2021, 10:08 am

Quote from Nick on 18th March 2021, 10:08 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 18th March 2021
The US economy is set to grow by 6.5pc this year, according to new Federal Reserve forecasts, more than half as fast again as its prediction of 4.2pc made just three months ago.
President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package combined with the rapid rollout of Covid vaccines mean the economy can recover and surge past its pre-pandemic size far faster than previously thought.

Officials expect the extraordinary growth spurt to help bring unemployment down to 4.5pc this year, rather than 5pc as anticipated in December’s forecasts. But they do not expect to raise interest rates before the end of 2023, as they wait for the recovery to become established and are prepared to let inflation run above its 2pc target for some time. “The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected,” said Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed’s policymakers.
Inflation is set to rise to 2.4pc this year as the pandemic weighed down prices a year ago, and “we could also see upward pressure on prices if spending rebounds quickly as the economy continues to reopen, particularly if supply bottlenecks limit how quickly production can respond in the near term,” said Mr Powell.
Dovish Fed
The Federal Reserve continues to the project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023, despite an upgraded U.S. economic outlook and the mounting inflation worries in financial markets. Officials see inflation settling back after the jump this year and Powell added there is no need to react to the rising U.S. Treasury yields. The Fed's decision, which came on a volatile day for investors, masked a growing number of officials who saw liftoff before then — though Powell stressed this remains a minority view. Yields have risen sharply in the past month as the economic outlook has improved amid accelerated vaccinations and $1.9 trillion in fresh fiscal aid.
AstraZeneca Backed
The World Health Organization endorsed AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, saying the shot should continue to be administered as the benefits outweigh its risks. It's the second health authority to endorse the shot in as many days, after reports of blood clots in some people who received the shots prompted more than a dozen European Union countries to pause immunizations. The EU is picking a fight with the U.K. over vaccine supplies, saying it will consider blocking supplies to countries that aren’t reciprocating or that already have high vaccination rates. Meanwhile Australia and New Zealand are close to a deal over travel corridor, and Taiwan will open its borders to tourists from Palau.[Bloomberg]
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks climbed Thursday on the Federal Reserve’s projections for interest rates to remain near-zero through 2023. U.S. Treasury yields resumed their rise and the dollar held a decline.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific index advanced about 1%. The S&P 500 hit a record overnight as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s tolerant stance on inflation and the recent rise in bond yields. U.S. equity futures erased earlier gains. The Australian dollar outperformed most major currencies on a strong jobs report.
Japan’s government bond yields lifted on a Nikkei report that the Bank of Japan is considering widening the trading range around the 10-year target, which could spur concerns about policy tightening.
Investors appear to be somewhat reassured by the Fed’s renewed emphasis on continued policy support. Markets were braced for a more hawkish tone, given the improvement in the economic outlook amid the stimulus-fueled recovery from the pandemic. Heightened concerns about inflation have driven bond yields sharply higher in recent weeks and spurred a rotation from growth stocks to value shares.
“The market reaction suggests investors are satisfied with the Fed’s explanations for now,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, and the Fed may need to provide more handholding to the market during this price spike.”
Elsewhere, oil slipped after U.S. crude stockpiles topped half a billion barrels and the International Energy Agency said global supplies are plentiful. Bitcoin traded around $59,000.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Nice climb on gold yesterday from the 1727 support level and if the bulls can break the 1750 level where we have the top of the 20d Raff channel, we should see further upside on that towards 1770 (R2) or higher. The Fed certainly helped the bulls across the board yesterday and were generally positive - rates staying near zero and with continued policy support.
The FTSE also saw a rise from the 6750 level again, and has once again tested the 6810 level overnight. This remains the line in the sand and ultimately a break of this could well lead towards 6930 soon.
However, (there's always one!) we have a key fib level at 6824 first, and then R2 at 6837. I am also watching the key 4000 level on the S&P and think that we may well get a reaction just above this as the bears appear. Just above as I expect they will want to get some stops of those that short the 4000 exactly.....
Above the 6837 level then 6868 is R3 though that maybe a bit much for today. We may well see some cooling after the Fed and as we get near this 4k level on the S&P.
Initial support is at the daily pivot and 30m coral (now green) at 6780, so the bears will be keen to break this as we then have the 200ema at 6772, S1 at 6759 and then the key fib at 6732.
After the drop off yesterday the 2 hour chart is bearish so the bulls will need to make any rise above the 6800 hold today. The bottom of the 10 day Raff is down at 6707 and tallies with the daily coral line at 6698 so should we a slide down to this area then we may well spring back up from there.
So, looking for a bit of a small rise and then dip to play out today. Keep an ee ont he S&P and a slight overshoot of the 4000 level - or in fact falling just shy! Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below
[yikes-mailchimp form="4"]

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 18th March 2021

The US economy is set to grow by 6.5pc this year, according to new Federal Reserve forecasts, more than half as fast again as its prediction of 4.2pc made just three months ago.

President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package combined with the rapid rollout of Covid vaccines mean the economy can recover and surge past its pre-pandemic size far faster than previously thought.

Officials expect the extraordinary growth spurt to help bring unemployment down to 4.5pc this year, rather than 5pc as anticipated in December’s forecasts. But they do not expect to raise interest rates before the end of 2023, as they wait for the recovery to become established and are prepared to let inflation run above its 2pc target for some time. “The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected,” said Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed’s policymakers.

Inflation is set to rise to 2.4pc this year as the pandemic weighed down prices a year ago, and “we could also see upward pressure on prices if spending rebounds quickly as the economy continues to reopen, particularly if supply bottlenecks limit how quickly production can respond in the near term,” said Mr Powell.

Dovish Fed

The Federal Reserve continues to the project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023, despite an upgraded U.S. economic outlook and the mounting inflation worries in financial markets. Officials see inflation settling back after the jump this year and Powell added there is no need to react to the rising U.S. Treasury yields. The Fed's decision, which came on a volatile day for investors, masked a growing number of officials who saw liftoff before then — though Powell stressed this remains a minority view. Yields have risen sharply in the past month as the economic outlook has improved amid accelerated vaccinations and $1.9 trillion in fresh fiscal aid.

AstraZeneca Backed

The World Health Organization endorsed AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, saying the shot should continue to be administered as the benefits outweigh its risks. It's the second health authority to endorse the shot in as many days, after reports of blood clots in some people who received the shots prompted more than a dozen European Union countries to pause immunizations. The EU is picking a fight with the U.K. over vaccine supplies, saying it will consider blocking supplies to countries that aren’t reciprocating or that already have high vaccination rates. Meanwhile Australia and New Zealand are close to a deal over travel corridor, and Taiwan will open its borders to tourists from Palau.[Bloomberg]

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks climbed Thursday on the Federal Reserve’s projections for interest rates to remain near-zero through 2023. U.S. Treasury yields resumed their rise and the dollar held a decline.

MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific index advanced about 1%. The S&P 500 hit a record overnight as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s tolerant stance on inflation and the recent rise in bond yields. U.S. equity futures erased earlier gains. The Australian dollar outperformed most major currencies on a strong jobs report.

Japan’s government bond yields lifted on a Nikkei report that the Bank of Japan is considering widening the trading range around the 10-year target, which could spur concerns about policy tightening.

Investors appear to be somewhat reassured by the Fed’s renewed emphasis on continued policy support. Markets were braced for a more hawkish tone, given the improvement in the economic outlook amid the stimulus-fueled recovery from the pandemic. Heightened concerns about inflation have driven bond yields sharply higher in recent weeks and spurred a rotation from growth stocks to value shares.

“The market reaction suggests investors are satisfied with the Fed’s explanations for now,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, and the Fed may need to provide more handholding to the market during this price spike.”

Elsewhere, oil slipped after U.S. crude stockpiles topped half a billion barrels and the International Energy Agency said global supplies are plentiful. Bitcoin traded around $59,000.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Nice climb on gold yesterday from the 1727 support level and if the bulls can break the 1750 level where we have the top of the 20d Raff channel, we should see further upside on that towards 1770 (R2) or higher. The Fed certainly helped the bulls across the board yesterday and were generally positive - rates staying near zero and with continued policy support.

The FTSE also saw a rise from the 6750 level again, and has once again tested the 6810 level overnight. This remains the line in the sand and ultimately a break of this could well lead towards 6930 soon.

However, (there's always one!) we have a key fib level at 6824 first, and then R2 at 6837. I am also watching the key 4000 level on the S&P and think that we may well get a reaction just above this as the bears appear. Just above as I expect they will want to get some stops of those that short the 4000 exactly.....

Above the 6837 level then 6868 is R3 though that maybe a bit much for today. We may well see some cooling after the Fed and as we get near this 4k level on the S&P.

Initial support is at the daily pivot and 30m coral (now green) at 6780, so the bears will be keen to break this as we then have the 200ema at 6772, S1 at 6759 and then the key fib at 6732.

After the drop off yesterday the 2 hour chart is bearish so the bulls will need to make any rise above the 6800 hold today. The bottom of the 10 day Raff is down at 6707 and tallies with the daily coral line at 6698 so should we a slide down to this area then we may well spring back up from there.

So, looking for a bit of a small rise and then dip to play out today. Keep an ee ont he S&P and a slight overshoot of the 4000 level - or in fact falling just shy! Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

[yikes-mailchimp form="4"]