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Fed pauses rate rises | ECB increase today | 7602 7640 resistance | 7555 7537 support

#1 · 15th June 2023, 8:37 am

Quote from Nick on 15th June 2023, 8:37 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 analysis & prediction for 15th June 2023
The FTSE 100 closed 0.10pc lower at 7,602.74, as the pound surged to its highest level in over a year ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. The mid-cap FTSE 250 index dipped by 0.07pc to 19,175.50.
The Federal Reserve last night paused its most aggressive round of interest rate rises since the 1980s, but stopped short of declaring victory in the fight against inflation. The US central bank decided to hold its target steady at 5pc to 5.25pc rather than opting for an 11th straight increase to borrowing costs.
Asian stocks climbed Thursday after the Federal Reserve paused monetary tightening and China’s central bank cut a key lending rate to support its struggling economy. Hong Kong’s benchmark index and Japanese equities advanced. Australian shares recovered after initially paring gains on strong jobs data that bolstered the case for further interest rate hikes from the central bank.
The S&P 500 churned sideways overnight and futures slipped 0.1% in Asia. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2%, while Japan’s tearaway Nikkei paused for breath and was flat.
FTSE100 Analysis
A decent drop off the 7640 level yesterday so that is now the line in the sand that the bulls will need to break. Helped by the Fed holding rates but giving further hints on future rises, saw a drop below the 7600 level where we have stayed overnight. For today I am thinking that the daily pivot and now red 30m coral resistance at the 7602 level may see an early drop off down to retest the 7555 level once again. The bulls will defend this drop I think, especially as we have the key fib at 7555 as well.
Above the 7602 level then 7640 as mentioned, with an outside chance of still seeing the 7700 level. Seems a bit of a big ask but you never know. Recently Thursday and Friday session have been bullish after all.
The daily coral at 7725 is red and untested as yet so that is the next level above that.
Support below the 7555 level is then the round number at 7500.
Hot on the heels of the FEDs rate decision is the ECB today at 13:15 with a rise to 4% forecasted. We also have US retail sales at 1330, forecasted to drop to -0.1% from 0.4% previously. A slow down in demands for goods and services will also help temper inflation of course.
Not too much more to say today, expecting a bit more consolidation really and continue to bounce between the 7550 and 7640 levels for a bit longer, with 7602 being resistance this morning.
Good luck today.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 analysis & prediction for 15th June 2023

The FTSE 100 closed 0.10pc lower at 7,602.74, as the pound surged to its highest level in over a year ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. The mid-cap FTSE 250 index dipped by 0.07pc to 19,175.50.

The Federal Reserve last night paused its most aggressive round of interest rate rises since the 1980s, but stopped short of declaring victory in the fight against inflation. The US central bank decided to hold its target steady at 5pc to 5.25pc rather than opting for an 11th straight increase to borrowing costs.

Asian stocks climbed Thursday after the Federal Reserve paused monetary tightening and China’s central bank cut a key lending rate to support its struggling economy. Hong Kong’s benchmark index and Japanese equities advanced. Australian shares recovered after initially paring gains on strong jobs data that bolstered the case for further interest rate hikes from the central bank.

The S&P 500 churned sideways overnight and futures slipped 0.1% in Asia. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2%, while Japan’s tearaway Nikkei paused for breath and was flat.

FTSE100 Analysis

A decent drop off the 7640 level yesterday so that is now the line in the sand that the bulls will need to break. Helped by the Fed holding rates but giving further hints on future rises, saw a drop below the 7600 level where we have stayed overnight. For today I am thinking that the daily pivot and now red 30m coral resistance at the 7602 level may see an early drop off down to retest the 7555 level once again. The bulls will defend this drop I think, especially as we have the key fib at 7555 as well.

Above the 7602 level then 7640 as mentioned, with an outside chance of still seeing the 7700 level. Seems a bit of a big ask but you never know. Recently Thursday and Friday session have been bullish after all.

The daily coral at 7725 is red and untested as yet so that is the next level above that.

Support below the 7555 level is then the round number at 7500.

Hot on the heels of the FEDs rate decision is the ECB today at 13:15 with a rise to 4% forecasted. We also have US retail sales at 1330, forecasted to drop to -0.1% from 0.4% previously. A slow down in demands for goods and services will also help temper inflation of course.

Not too much more to say today, expecting a bit more consolidation really and continue to bounce between the 7550 and 7640 levels for a bit longer, with 7602 being resistance this morning.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates