Quote from Nick on 10th June 2020, 11:42 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th June 2020

• The FTSE 100 fell sharply yesterday, as a global shift away from risky assets and a mid-session volta for the pound conspired to drag the index down 2.11pc – its worst one-day fall since the end of May.
• All but 15 of London’s top stocks lost ground, with many of the cyclical stocks that had finally begun to grab gain in recent weeks dropping again as the mood across markets shifted.
• Aerospace suppliers Meggitt and Rolls-Royce were the FTSE 100’s biggest fallers, taking the edge of recent gains, while energy giant Royal Dutch Shell shifted downwards, adding to the heavy drag on the index.
• Gold miners Fresnillo and Polymetal both rose as the precious metal rallied.
• There were relatively few news-driven moves across London’s main market.
• The Bank of France predicted the French economy would shrink by about 10 percent this year on the fallout from Covid-19.
• Oil prices retreated further on scepticism over a weekend deal to extend output cuts from key crude producing nations.

Global stock markets fell yesterday as investors locked in profits from a strong recent run, with analysts saying that equity valuations had started to look too optimistic, prompting a reality check. Dire corporate and economic news in the eurozone sparked selling in Europe, and Wall Street joined in as investors nervously awaited the outcome of a US central bank meeting.

London's benchmark index shed 2.11pc, closing at 6,335.72 while the FTSE 250 ended 2.10pc lower at 17,755.25. In the eurozone the Frankfurt DAX and Paris CAC ended 1.57 and 1.55pc lower, respectively.

Rally Pause

Asian stocks were poised for a lower start Wednesday after U.S. equities retreated on concern the recent risk-asset rally had run too far. Treasuries climbed. Futures in Japan and Australia declined, with contracts little changed in Hong Kong. The S&P 500 halted a surge that drove the gauge higher for 2020, dipping less than 1%. Treasury yields sank to as low as 0.8%, while the dollar reclaimed some earlier losses to trade flat. Oil rose in a late rally ahead of inventory data on Wednesday and after Libya once again closed its top oil field shortly after reopening. Stocks have swung from depression to euphoria in a record-breaking rally that added $21 trillion to global equity markets. Much of that has been driven by retail investors who dived back into the market as stocks rebounded.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Equities traded mixed in Asia on Wednesday as investors took stock of the recent risk-asset rally and awaited clues on the next steps for monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The dollar resumed its recent decline. Shares dipped in China and Japan. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and South Korea fluctuated, while Australia edged higher. S&P 500 futures rose after the index on Tuesday halted a surge that drove it into the black for 2020, with a drop of 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 briefly topped 10,000 as Apple Inc. jumped on news it’s preparing to announce a shift to its own main processors in Mac computers. Treasuries were flat.

The bears grabbed the, errr, bull by the horns yesterday and we saw a decent drop off from the 6515 level which had been tested a few times prior, and the 3233 level on the S&P. However the US bulls defended the drop and the 30min chart looks set for a climb towards the 3253 level with a possible pause at the 3237 2hr resistance level. As such that should see a rise on the FTSE this morning, with the 2 hour resistance on that now at 6466 and a level that looks like it should see the bears regroup. FTSE was a lot more bearish than the S&P yesterday.

Initially today the FTSE bulls need to break the 200ema and daily pivot area at the 6390 level so I am thinking that we get a rise and to here then a small pull back before further upside later, towards that 6465 level.

If the bears were to break below the 6320 level that has held well so far then S1 at 6270 would be the next likely bounce point so worth keeping an eye on this level. The bulls have brought it too far for it to just turn and drop, so pop a bit higher and probably set up a good bear trap now, with a final squeeze higher, just to kill off the bears that went in yesterday would make sense. That said, caution still advised as those daily RSIs mentioned yesterday are still high, though the FTSE has dropped to 62 now.

With the drop yesterday the 2 hour charts have gone bearish of course, so looking at 12900 Dax, 3237 SP and 6466 FTSE as the resistance levels of note from that time frame. I do think however that the SP may well try for the 3250 area, just pushing above its recent high and continuing the trend up.  If the bears do break below yesterdays low though, then 3171 is the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel, and then 3120 for the bottom of the 20 day Raff. That said, I am looking at initial support at 3213 though where we have the daily pivot and 30min coral.

Back to the FTSE and we may well see the coral go green (uptrend) at 6340 if the bulls can keep it above this level this morning. As we also have the daily pivot here then I would like to see the bulls step in here for another push up this week. Let's see.

So looking at 6400 and 6465 as the main resistance levels, 6340 and 6270 as the main supports. Good luck today.

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