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Economy shrinks 9.9pc | 6530 6570 6585 resistance | 6498 6488 6465 support

#1 · 12th February 2021, 10:26 am

Quote from Nick on 12th February 2021, 10:26 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th February 2021
Something of a lacklustre day for the London market yesterday, ending less than five points higher at 6,528. Shell was the biggest blue-chip faller with both the A and B class shares off 2.4pc, while Coca-Cola HBG - the company no one quite understands - ended almost 5pc higher.

Britain is set to avoid a double-dip recession despite shrinking by almost a tenth last year in the worst annual plunge in GDP in three centuries, official figures have revealed. The recovery slowed sharply in the final three months of 2020 but the economy averted another contraction despite tougher Covid restrictions. The return of a national lockdown meant GDP rose by 1pc compared to the previous quarter, down from a record 16.1pc jump in the third quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Chip Choke Up
The Biden administration is working to address the global semiconductor shortage that has caused production halts in U.S. industries, including autos. The administration is identifying choke points in supply chains and President Joe Biden is expected to sign an executive order directing a government-wide review in the coming weeks. Earlier, the U.S. chip industry urged President Biden to support domestic production. Meanwhile, Biden urged Congress to move quickly on a large infrastructure improvement plan, declaring that China is poised to “eat our lunch” otherwise.
Wealth Of Opportunity
HSBC’s search for growth is targeting wealth management as a potential new profit engine as it deepens its focus on Asia. It's the embattled lender’s second strategic reset in a year, after thousands of jobs were cut, sending the share price plummeting. CEO Noel Quinn told about 250 top managers that HSBC aims to become one of the world’s biggest wealth managers, and that the bank would “invest at scale” where it sees the greatest opportunity, pointing to Asia, the U.K. and the Middle East.
Mastercard Move
Bitcoin jumped to a record high after Mastercard and Bank of New York Mellon moved to make it easier for customers to use cryptocurrencies. The largest digital asset rose as much as 8.1% to $48,663, surpassing the all-time high reached Monday after Tesla announced it would hold $1.5 billionof the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. The wider Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index also touched a record. Still, don’t count on other large companies to emulate Tesla’s decision, JPMorgan says.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Stocks traded with little fanfare Friday as holidays across Asia curbed trading, and U.S. and European equity futures were little changed. Crude oil extended an overnight retreat.
Japanese shares ticked higher and Australian stocks slipped amid a snap lockdown for Victoria state. S&P 500 futures dipped after the benchmark on Thursday eked out a gain to close at an all-time high. Strength in tech shares ensured the Nasdaq 100 outperformed. Applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits fell slightly last week in a sign that the labor market is still gradually improving. The dollar firmed against most G-10 peers and Treasuries edged up.
Crude oil pared its weekly advance following the International Energy Agency’s bleaker outlook for global demand. Walt Disney Co. climbed post market after strong growth in its streaming services. Bitcoin climbed to a record.
After a sharp run-up in global equities to a record high this year and signs central banks will keep supportive monetary policy in place, a debate is rumbling over whether more stimulus along with the vaccine distribution will cause inflation to overheat.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
I am still running a portion of the FTSE 100 short from yesterday and will just trail the stop on the remainder. This is at 6540 currently. For today I am thinking that we may well see the bears have a bit of a go again, as the FTSE certainly remains the laggard out of the three I watch (FTSE, Dax and SP). The S&P failed to get above the 3925 level yesterday after hitting 3935 the day before so lower highs on that as it continues to consolidate a bit. Above the 3935 level then 3950 is the next level of note. However, the 2 hour chart is turning bearish, with 3930 as resistance too. We may well see the coral turn red on that today.
The FTSE 100 has continued to slide after testing the daily 25ema at 6575 the other day. Support initially is at the 6497 level, and we may see this hold initially. Below this level then I am looking at a slide down to S2 at 6472, with a possible test of the 10 day Raff channel bottom looming soon - thats at 6414 for today. Not sure we will get that low today but keep it in mind.
For the bulls, they will be looking to break above the cluster of resistance levels at the 6528 level - the daily pivot, 30m coral and 200ema are all centred around this area and as such if we get an initial rise to that first this we could see the bears appear here again. I will add back to my short at this area as well as per the trade plan.
A break of the 6497 will get things a lot more bearish looking, as would the S&P breaking the 3895 level (S1). It certainly a mixed bag though, with the FTSE well off its January high still, while the Dax and the S&P are more positive. Is the FTSE just the realist?
So keep an eye on the 6530 resistance level initially - the 2 hour coral line has also gone red at 6540 so we could well see this area hold any test today. For support 6497, then 6472. Good luck today - can pay to be a bit more cautious on a Friday as well, lower stakes etc. Have a great weekend.
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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th February 2021

Something of a lacklustre day for the London market yesterday, ending less than five points higher at 6,528. Shell was the biggest blue-chip faller with both the A and B class shares off 2.4pc, while Coca-Cola HBG - the company no one quite understands - ended almost 5pc higher.

Britain is set to avoid a double-dip recession despite shrinking by almost a tenth last year in the worst annual plunge in GDP in three centuries, official figures have revealed. The recovery slowed sharply in the final three months of 2020 but the economy averted another contraction despite tougher Covid restrictions. The return of a national lockdown meant GDP rose by 1pc compared to the previous quarter, down from a record 16.1pc jump in the third quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Chip Choke Up

The Biden administration is working to address the global semiconductor shortage that has caused production halts in U.S. industries, including autos. The administration is identifying choke points in supply chains and President Joe Biden is expected to sign an executive order directing a government-wide review in the coming weeks. Earlier, the U.S. chip industry urged President Biden to support domestic production. Meanwhile, Biden urged Congress to move quickly on a large infrastructure improvement plan, declaring that China is poised to “eat our lunch” otherwise.

Wealth Of Opportunity

HSBC’s search for growth is targeting wealth management as a potential new profit engine as it deepens its focus on Asia. It's the embattled lender’s second strategic reset in a year, after thousands of jobs were cut, sending the share price plummeting. CEO Noel Quinn told about 250 top managers that HSBC aims to become one of the world’s biggest wealth managers, and that the bank would “invest at scale” where it sees the greatest opportunity, pointing to Asia, the U.K. and the Middle East.

Mastercard Move

Bitcoin jumped to a record high after Mastercard and Bank of New York Mellon moved to make it easier for customers to use cryptocurrencies. The largest digital asset rose as much as 8.1% to $48,663, surpassing the all-time high reached Monday after Tesla announced it would hold $1.5 billionof the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. The wider Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index also touched a record. Still, don’t count on other large companies to emulate Tesla’s decision, JPMorgan says.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Stocks traded with little fanfare Friday as holidays across Asia curbed trading, and U.S. and European equity futures were little changed. Crude oil extended an overnight retreat.

Japanese shares ticked higher and Australian stocks slipped amid a snap lockdown for Victoria state. S&P 500 futures dipped after the benchmark on Thursday eked out a gain to close at an all-time high. Strength in tech shares ensured the Nasdaq 100 outperformed. Applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits fell slightly last week in a sign that the labor market is still gradually improving. The dollar firmed against most G-10 peers and Treasuries edged up.

Crude oil pared its weekly advance following the International Energy Agency’s bleaker outlook for global demand. Walt Disney Co. climbed post market after strong growth in its streaming services. Bitcoin climbed to a record.

After a sharp run-up in global equities to a record high this year and signs central banks will keep supportive monetary policy in place, a debate is rumbling over whether more stimulus along with the vaccine distribution will cause inflation to overheat.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

I am still running a portion of the FTSE 100 short from yesterday and will just trail the stop on the remainder. This is at 6540 currently. For today I am thinking that we may well see the bears have a bit of a go again, as the FTSE certainly remains the laggard out of the three I watch (FTSE, Dax and SP). The S&P failed to get above the 3925 level yesterday after hitting 3935 the day before so lower highs on that as it continues to consolidate a bit. Above the 3935 level then 3950 is the next level of note. However, the 2 hour chart is turning bearish, with 3930 as resistance too. We may well see the coral turn red on that today.

The FTSE 100 has continued to slide after testing the daily 25ema at 6575 the other day. Support initially is at the 6497 level, and we may see this hold initially. Below this level then I am looking at a slide down to S2 at 6472, with a possible test of the 10 day Raff channel bottom looming soon - thats at 6414 for today. Not sure we will get that low today but keep it in mind.

For the bulls, they will be looking to break above the cluster of resistance levels at the 6528 level - the daily pivot, 30m coral and 200ema are all centred around this area and as such if we get an initial rise to that first this we could see the bears appear here again. I will add back to my short at this area as well as per the trade plan.

A break of the 6497 will get things a lot more bearish looking, as would the S&P breaking the 3895 level (S1). It certainly a mixed bag though, with the FTSE well off its January high still, while the Dax and the S&P are more positive. Is the FTSE just the realist?

So keep an eye on the 6530 resistance level initially - the 2 hour coral line has also gone red at 6540 so we could well see this area hold any test today. For support 6497, then 6472. Good luck today - can pay to be a bit more cautious on a Friday as well, lower stakes etc. Have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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