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ECB hikes rates | 7255 7245 7210 support | 7310 7351 7406 resistance

#1 · 22nd July 2022, 10:34 am

Quote from Nick on 22nd July 2022, 10:34 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 inched higher Thursday as gains in financial stocks offset the weakness in energy and healthcare shares. The index rose 0.1% to 7,270.
The European Central Bank shocked markets with a bigger-than-expected interest rate rise of 50 basis points to 0pc – its largest increase since 2000 – despite previously guiding markets to expect a more cautious 25 basis point increase.
The euro initially climbed following the announcement, but dropped again after Ms Lagarde was criticised for providing little detail on future rate hikes. Doubts also grew over the new bond-buying programme announced by the bank (ECB).
US equity futures fell Friday and Asian stocks wavered after disappointment over technology earnings stoked worries about the economic outlook and took some of the shine off this week’s global equity rebound.
An Asian share index edged up in listless performance across the region after a China tech jump fizzled. Nasdaq 100 contracts came close to shedding 1% while European futures fluctuated.
However, Asian stock markets were on course for their best week in months and the dollar held off recent record highs after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates for the first time in more than a decade and bets on the size of U.S. rate hikes eased.
Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.24% on Friday and was on course to make gains for a seventh successive day. It’s likely to be the index’s best week since March.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.03%, but the index is still set for its best week in about two months.
The euro was trading at $1.019 and on course for its biggest weekly rise against the dollar since late May, after having dipped below parity last week.
The ECB raised interest rates by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points to zero percent overnight, its first hike in 11 years and ending a policy of negative interest rates that had been in place since 2014.
Tech companies are likely to weigh on U.S. stocks today, with Nasdaq futures down 0.68% after Snap Inc’s poor earnings release sounded the alarm among investors.
Snap’s accompanying warning of the effect of an economic slowdown on internet companies caused the share price to plummet nearly 27% in after-hours trade. Twitter Inc will release its earnings later today.
Oil prices rose Friday and looked set for their first weekly gain in more than a month. Brent crude futures were up 1.53% to $105.45 a barrel, and U.S. WTI crude futures rose 1.45% to $97.75.
The U.S. Federal Reserve meets to set interest rates next week and expectations of a 100 bp hike have faded in favour of pricing for a 75 bp move.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 22nd July 2022
The S&P managed to push up to the 4000 level yesterday evening before dropping back a bit and we may well be on track for a push higher again today. It didn't quite reach the 3910 support, bouncing slightly above at 3920 and that has put the 2h chart bullish again for the moment. If the bulls can remain in charge then that should get a rise up towards the 4020 area, possibly today
In turn that should help pull the FTSE100 up as well and the bulls will be looking to break above the 7300 level today, to end the week on a positive footing.
Initial support is at 7255 where we have the daily pivot, a green 30m coral, and also the 200ema on the 30m at 7246. If 7250 is therefore defended to start with we should be on for a rise toward the 7310 level initially to test R1 and the key fib, but then above that the daily level at 7327 and other fib at 7337.
Should they really push on today then above that 7351 is R2 and R3 at 7406 but I am not expecting it to get that high today!
The bears meanwhile will be aiming to break that 7246 level as then we would more than likely see S1 and the key fib at the 7215 area.
Of slight concern for the bulls is that the 2h chart is bearish with the 7306 level as the Hull MA resistance. As such the bulls are going to need to really pull it out the bag to break above this, though as mentioned we may well get some help from the S&P500. 7305 is also another test of the 200ema on the daily chart. 7350 is also the most recent high that we have dropped off from previously - as such this is the really key one to break if the bulls are going to target 7400.
The daily chart is on the cusp of going bullish again and if we have a positive session today we may well see the moving averages cross over to bullish again - that would then set up the 7225 level as support on that.
Good luck today, don't forget as its Friday it can be a little bit of a strange one so stay nimble! Have a great weekend.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 inched higher Thursday as gains in financial stocks offset the weakness in energy and healthcare shares. The index rose 0.1% to 7,270.

The European Central Bank shocked markets with a bigger-than-expected interest rate rise of 50 basis points to 0pc – its largest increase since 2000 – despite previously guiding markets to expect a more cautious 25 basis point increase.

The euro initially climbed following the announcement, but dropped again after Ms Lagarde was criticised for providing little detail on future rate hikes. Doubts also grew over the new bond-buying programme announced by the bank (ECB).

US equity futures fell Friday and Asian stocks wavered after disappointment over technology earnings stoked worries about the economic outlook and took some of the shine off this week’s global equity rebound.

An Asian share index edged up in listless performance across the region after a China tech jump fizzled. Nasdaq 100 contracts came close to shedding 1% while European futures fluctuated.

However, Asian stock markets were on course for their best week in months and the dollar held off recent record highs after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates for the first time in more than a decade and bets on the size of U.S. rate hikes eased.

Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.24% on Friday and was on course to make gains for a seventh successive day. It’s likely to be the index’s best week since March.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.03%, but the index is still set for its best week in about two months.

The euro was trading at $1.019 and on course for its biggest weekly rise against the dollar since late May, after having dipped below parity last week.

The ECB raised interest rates by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points to zero percent overnight, its first hike in 11 years and ending a policy of negative interest rates that had been in place since 2014.

Tech companies are likely to weigh on U.S. stocks today, with Nasdaq futures down 0.68% after Snap Inc’s poor earnings release sounded the alarm among investors.

Snap’s accompanying warning of the effect of an economic slowdown on internet companies caused the share price to plummet nearly 27% in after-hours trade. Twitter Inc will release its earnings later today.

Oil prices rose Friday and looked set for their first weekly gain in more than a month. Brent crude futures were up 1.53% to $105.45 a barrel, and U.S. WTI crude futures rose 1.45% to $97.75.

The U.S. Federal Reserve meets to set interest rates next week and expectations of a 100 bp hike have faded in favour of pricing for a 75 bp move.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 22nd July 2022

The S&P managed to push up to the 4000 level yesterday evening before dropping back a bit and we may well be on track for a push higher again today. It didn't quite reach the 3910 support, bouncing slightly above at 3920 and that has put the 2h chart bullish again for the moment. If the bulls can remain in charge then that should get a rise up towards the 4020 area, possibly today

In turn that should help pull the FTSE100 up as well and the bulls will be looking to break above the 7300 level today, to end the week on a positive footing.

Initial support is at 7255 where we have the daily pivot, a green 30m coral, and also the 200ema on the 30m at 7246. If 7250 is therefore defended to start with we should be on for a rise toward the 7310 level initially to test R1 and the key fib, but then above that the daily level at 7327 and other fib at 7337.

Should they really push on today then above that 7351 is R2 and R3 at 7406 but I am not expecting it to get that high today!

The bears meanwhile will be aiming to break that 7246 level as then we would more than likely see S1 and the key fib at the 7215 area.

Of slight concern for the bulls is that the 2h chart is bearish with the 7306 level as the Hull MA resistance. As such the bulls are going to need to really pull it out the bag to break above this, though as mentioned we may well get some help from the S&P500. 7305 is also another test of the 200ema on the daily chart. 7350 is also the most recent high that we have dropped off from previously - as such this is the really key one to break if the bulls are going to target 7400.

The daily chart is on the cusp of going bullish again and if we have a positive session today we may well see the moving averages cross over to bullish again - that would then set up the 7225 level as support on that.

Good luck today, don't forget as its Friday it can be a little bit of a strange one so stay nimble! Have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates