Quote from Nick on 16th July 2020, 9:48 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th July 2020

Hopes of progress on a Covid-19 vaccine boosted global markets on Wednesday, sending European equities sharply higher. A buoyant mood at the open grew after ITV reported “positive news” is coming on the vaccine under development at Oxford University, where research is being conducted in conjunction with AstraZeneca. The broadcaster’s political editor, Robert Peston, said the under-development vaccine “is generating the kind of antibody and T-cell (killer cell) response that the researchers would hope to see”.

The FTSE 100 pharma giant’s shares popped higher following the report, ending the day up 447p at £89.96. The chunky rise for London’s most valuable listed company put a strong upwards pull on the blue-chip index, with only a handful of groups losing ground. European travel stocks reached a three-week high, led by gains for British Airways-owner International Consolidated Airlines, which pushed up 22.2p to 229.3p on optimism about vaccine trials.

Here's a quick recap:

• Global stock markets got a shot in the arm from hopes for a coronavirus vaccine today, with the outlook for more US financial stimulus adding to the brighter mood.
• Optimism was sparked by US biotech firm Moderna saying the final stage of human trials for a COVID-19 vaccine would start at the end of the month, after a report said first stage tests had been a success.
• The news follows an announcement from Pfizer and BioNTech that two of four candidates for treatment had received "Fast Track" designation from US officials.
• European markets were as much as 2pc higher at the close, outperforming the Dow on Wall Street which had retreated from opening gains by the late New York morning.
• Oil prices rose, defying doubts about OPEC's willingness to maintain all its recent production cuts for much longer.

The FTSE 100 ended 1.83pc higher at 6,292.65 while the FTSE 250 closed 1.43pc up at 17,420.55.

Cold Feet

In contrast to his recent combative public tone, President Donald Trump has indicated to aides that he doesn’t want to further escalate tensions with Beijing, and has ruled out additional sanctions on top officials for now, according to people familiar with the matter. Trump’s private decision to refrain from further restrictions was made before signing the Hong Kong Autonomy Act on Tuesday. The new law calls for sanctions against “primary offenders” undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy, but doesn’t require the administration to act immediately. Trump’s team had already created a list of Chinese officials, including Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam and Vice Premier Han Zheng, before Trump decided against the move, said two of the people. Still, the president can still decide to move forward with the penalties even if he doesn’t do so now.[Bloomberg]

Confirmed Culprit

As countries across Asia Pacific struggle with resurgences of the coronavirus, one data point is steering government responses: the share of cases with no clear indication of how infection occurred. These patients cannot be linked to other confirmed infections or existing outbreaks by virus responders, indicating hidden chains of transmission impossible to break. A growing proportion of such cases in a city’s resurgence pushes governments, like those in Australia and Hong Kong, to take broad and blunt action, returning entire cities to lockdown-like conditions. “You can hardly contain the outbreak because you have no idea where they will come out next,” said Yang Gonghuan, former deputy director general of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention. “When there’s more cases where the origins are unknown, it adds to the difficulty for containment.”[Bloomberg]

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Asian stocks were lower Thursday along with European and U.S. equity futures as investors parsed a slew of economic data in China that showed the path of economic recovery from the pandemic remains bumpy. The dollar edged higher. Equities in China were down about 1.5%. Shares were also lower in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia. S&P 500 contracts slipped after a positive Wednesday session on signs of progress in developing a vaccine for the coronavirus. Twitter Inc. fell in after-hours trading after accounts of some of America’s most prominent political and business leaders were hacked. Crude oil declined, while Treasuries were little changed.

The bulls managed to push a bit higher than the 6285 level yesterday however later in the day the 6320 10 day Raff channel was tested and got a decent reaction from the bears, down to 6275 fairly quickly and then a continued slide overnight. As such, the FTSE 100 remains on track for a test of the 6200 area if this leg continues to play out. That 6205 is the 200ema on the 30min and a drop down to test that would fit the pattern quite well - probably coinciding with the S&P backtesting the 3170 resistance now support level. Can further vaccine hopes be enough to keep the bull run alive?

The news flow is a bit dire as well along with China tensions simmering away globally. For today it looks like the bears may well take impetus form the ASX200 and we see a steady drop down to the 6200 level. That said there is fib support at 6237 on the way down, along with S1 at 6225. Feel like shorting the rallies today is the play at leats initially.

The bulls will probably try to be quick out the blocks, and a push through 6305 would likely lead to a test of the fib level at 6326 - coinciding with yesterday's high there too. They will have to really push it though to get a rise at the open. Above the 6326 level then R1 is at 6343 and would likely get tested before the Raff channel tops come back into play, and 6367 for the 20d and 6383 for the 10d. Keep an eye on these levels too.

The daily chart has remained positive with the daily 25ema at 6195 to lend weight to a any dip bouncing around that level. It looks key so keep an eye on that too for support. Worth a long there should it get that low today. That would also tie in with a test of the green 2hr coral, which is at 6161 as I write this and rising.

So, looking at a slow drift down towards that 6200 support area as the next main move. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

• Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
• Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
• Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

[yikes-mailchimp form="4"]