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Dip and rise with 7040 6999 6911 support | 7140 7180 resistance | US retail sales

#1 · 15th July 2022, 9:04 am

Quote from Nick on 15th July 2022, 9:04 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE100 fell yesterday as investors worried about the prospect of a more aggressive stance by major central banks to curb inflation, with a slew of worrying forecasts from companies and weak commodity prices also hurting sentiment.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 slid 1.6pc, while the domestically oriented FTSE 250 index declined 1.2pc.
However, US equity futures ticked higher Friday and an Asian equity gauge was little changed as investors assessed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes and the latest readings on China’s economy.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European contracts rose as Asian shares pared losses and after Wall Street came off Thursday lows to close with a small loss.
Although wagers on a 100 basis point hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve later this month eased off a little overnight as Fed officials hosed down that possibility, bond markets remain priced for steep hikes to slam the brakes on output.
The S&P 500 finished 0.3% lower but futures were up 0.35% in Asia after Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard poured some cold water on talk of a 100 bp rate hikes later in July.
Futures imply about a 30% chance of a 100 bp hike and see the benchmark U.S. interest rate reaching about 3.6% by March next year before being cut back to 3% by late 2023.
China's economy contracted sharply in the second quarter data released on Friday showed, while annual growth also slowed significantly, highlighting the colossal toll on activity from widespread COVID lockdowns, which jolted industrial production and consumer spending.
U.S. retail sales data will also be a closely watched data point on Friday.
Inflation
The highest inflation in a generation continues to buffet both the world economy and financial markets. In the US, President Joe Biden is risking a disconnect with the American public after playing down a 9.1% annual inflation rate as out of date because it fails to reflect a recent drop in fuel prices. In markets, meanwhile, investors are fleeing to the dollar as a safe haven with worries that a global wave of interest-rate hikes to fight price pressures will choke economic growth. That’s taken a gauge of the greenback’s strength to a record high.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th July 2022
The bulls are definitely on the back foot at the moment as the bears drove it down to retest that 7010 level once again yesterday, though it was defended for a push back towards 7100. Overnight we have seen a drop off in the futures and if we follow the ASX200 pattern then we are looking at another dip and rise pattern for today. There is decent support still at the 6998 area with S1 and the 20d Raff channel bottom here, so it would be good to see any dip down to this area to hold.
Obviously a break of 7000 isnt a great sign for optimism and for the bulls, so further declines down to the 6967 level, and then the 10 day Raff at 6942 would likely play out. The 2h chart remains firmly bearish and the red coral remains untested at 7159 currently (and dropping slowly). Ergo any rise to this area will likely see another bearish move off it.
Below the 6942 then S2 is right down at 6911 for today - I wouldn't expect us to get that low today but as its Friday you never know - more often than not they are slightly weird!
For the bulls, if they can get going today then a rise towards 7115 is possible as we have daily resistance there, and then the 7155 area above that for the 2h coral as mentioned. Might be a bit optimistic for a Friday but on the other hand, oil prices have remained below the $100 which will help tame the next inflation reading. If it stays there anyway!
On the news front we have US June retail sales out at 1330, forecasted to kick up to 0.8% from -0.3% previously.
S&P500
The 30m chart on this looks more optimistic with decent looking support at 3772 to start with - we have the daily pivot and the 30m coral now green here so a dip to here then a climb would fit that time frame chart pretty well. The 2h chart has also gone bullish for the first time in a while, with 3780 and just below as support. That said, the 2h coral remains red and has 3815 as resistance so this is the level the bulls will need to break. We are in a narrowing range for a break out one way or the other.
So looking like a possible dip and rise this morning, but keep your guard up as its Friday! Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE100 fell yesterday as investors worried about the prospect of a more aggressive stance by major central banks to curb inflation, with a slew of worrying forecasts from companies and weak commodity prices also hurting sentiment.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 slid 1.6pc, while the domestically oriented FTSE 250 index declined 1.2pc.

However, US equity futures ticked higher Friday and an Asian equity gauge was little changed as investors assessed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes and the latest readings on China’s economy.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European contracts rose as Asian shares pared losses and after Wall Street came off Thursday lows to close with a small loss.

Although wagers on a 100 basis point hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve later this month eased off a little overnight as Fed officials hosed down that possibility, bond markets remain priced for steep hikes to slam the brakes on output.

The S&P 500 finished 0.3% lower but futures were up 0.35% in Asia after Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard poured some cold water on talk of a 100 bp rate hikes later in July.

Futures imply about a 30% chance of a 100 bp hike and see the benchmark U.S. interest rate reaching about 3.6% by March next year before being cut back to 3% by late 2023.

China's economy contracted sharply in the second quarter data released on Friday showed, while annual growth also slowed significantly, highlighting the colossal toll on activity from widespread COVID lockdowns, which jolted industrial production and consumer spending.

U.S. retail sales data will also be a closely watched data point on Friday.

Inflation
The highest inflation in a generation continues to buffet both the world economy and financial markets. In the US, President Joe Biden is risking a disconnect with the American public after playing down a 9.1% annual inflation rate as out of date because it fails to reflect a recent drop in fuel prices. In markets, meanwhile, investors are fleeing to the dollar as a safe haven with worries that a global wave of interest-rate hikes to fight price pressures will choke economic growth. That’s taken a gauge of the greenback’s strength to a record high.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th July 2022

The bulls are definitely on the back foot at the moment as the bears drove it down to retest that 7010 level once again yesterday, though it was defended for a push back towards 7100. Overnight we have seen a drop off in the futures and if we follow the ASX200 pattern then we are looking at another dip and rise pattern for today. There is decent support still at the 6998 area with S1 and the 20d Raff channel bottom here, so it would be good to see any dip down to this area to hold.

Obviously a break of 7000 isnt a great sign for optimism and for the bulls, so further declines down to the 6967 level, and then the 10 day Raff at 6942 would likely play out. The 2h chart remains firmly bearish and the red coral remains untested at 7159 currently (and dropping slowly). Ergo any rise to this area will likely see another bearish move off it.

Below the 6942 then S2 is right down at 6911 for today - I wouldn't expect us to get that low today but as its Friday you never know - more often than not they are slightly weird!

For the bulls, if they can get going today then a rise towards 7115 is possible as we have daily resistance there, and then the 7155 area above that for the 2h coral as mentioned. Might be a bit optimistic for a Friday but on the other hand, oil prices have remained below the $100 which will help tame the next inflation reading. If it stays there anyway!

On the news front we have US June retail sales out at 1330, forecasted to kick up to 0.8% from -0.3% previously.

S&P500
The 30m chart on this looks more optimistic with decent looking support at 3772 to start with - we have the daily pivot and the 30m coral now green here so a dip to here then a climb would fit that time frame chart pretty well. The 2h chart has also gone bullish for the first time in a while, with 3780 and just below as support. That said, the 2h coral remains red and has 3815 as resistance so this is the level the bulls will need to break. We are in a narrowing range for a break out one way or the other.

So looking like a possible dip and rise this morning, but keep your guard up as its Friday! Good luck today and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below with just your email address

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