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Dip and rise today with highest US inflation for 41 years | 7155 7100 7001 support | 7202 7255 resistance

#1 · 14th July 2022, 9:54 am

Quote from Nick on 14th July 2022, 9:54 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 dropped yesterday after hotter-than-expected US inflation data slammed global markets, while a surprise growth in Britain's economy failed to assuage recession worries. The index dropped 0.7pc to 7,156 as sterling edged higher.
Data showed Britain's economy grew unexpectedly in May, driven by a rise in doctor appointments and demand for holidays, that could reassure the Bank of England about its plans to keep on raising interest rates.
Meanwhile, US inflation data fanned fears that the Federal Reserve might take a more aggressive stance on rate hikes, potentially tipping the world's largest economy into a recession.
Stocks in Asia edged higher, while US equity futures pared declines Thursday as investors assessed the prospect of a recession on hardened expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening after sizzling US inflation data.
An Asian share index erased earlier losses as Chinese technology shares advanced. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts shed about 0.2%. A volatile US session ended with modest losses, a resilience possibly rooted in speculation over whether the 9.1% consumer-price reading marks the peak. European contracts rose.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.1%, hovering just above the two-year low hit on Tuesday, while U.S. Nasdaq futures shed 0.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend by rising 0.6%, helped by the yen’s weakness against the dollar boosting exporters.
Overnight U.S. data showed rising costs of fuel, food and rent drove the consumer price index (CPI) up 9.1% last month, leading to worries that the Fed could raise rates by an enormous 100 basis points at its meeting next month rather than the 75 that had been expected.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th July 2022
Volatility continues apace as the news flow is focussed on inflation and interest rates. 100bps being mooted now for the Fed, after yesterdays CPI reading. Bit early with the Dax and SPX longs yesterday but it did dip and rise in the end.
For today we have initial support at the daily pivot at the 7158 level. It would be good to see a climb from there to once again test the 7220 level, and then above that the next level of note at 7255. R1 is at 7215 as well to once again give resistance to that area, along with the 25ema on the daily at 7225, while R2 is at 7268.
The bulls will really need to be quick out the blocks today and likewise on the S&P500 to defend any drop down to the 3775 level again. Overnight they have defended 3775 though we may well be on for another test this morning.
If the 7158 level holds then we should see a bit more of an optimistic day. On the political front its seem to be between Rishi and Mourdant as was widely expected, at least in our chat room anyway!
If the bears break below the daily pivot then 7100 looks key - with the fib here and also S1, along with the round number. Below that however then 7048 is S2 and would probably be seen as once again the bears try and drive it down towards 7000.
All that said I am thinking a rise towards 7255 today....
S&P500
The bulls remain on the back foot, and need to defend the 3775 level as mentioned. We have climbed from there once again overnight, and a rise to 3820 looks like it may well play out this morning. 3820 looks key resistance though, and it may be a big ask to break above that on the first attempt today so a drop back from there would make sense. If the bulls manage to push through then 3850 is the now red 2h coral and the next hurdle. We could see the bears launch from here so keep an eye on this level.
So, could be on for another interesting one and lets see if the bulls can stage a bit of a fightback today. Good luck.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 dropped yesterday after hotter-than-expected US inflation data slammed global markets, while a surprise growth in Britain's economy failed to assuage recession worries. The index dropped 0.7pc to 7,156 as sterling edged higher.

Data showed Britain's economy grew unexpectedly in May, driven by a rise in doctor appointments and demand for holidays, that could reassure the Bank of England about its plans to keep on raising interest rates.

Meanwhile, US inflation data fanned fears that the Federal Reserve might take a more aggressive stance on rate hikes, potentially tipping the world's largest economy into a recession.

Stocks in Asia edged higher, while US equity futures pared declines Thursday as investors assessed the prospect of a recession on hardened expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening after sizzling US inflation data.

An Asian share index erased earlier losses as Chinese technology shares advanced. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts shed about 0.2%. A volatile US session ended with modest losses, a resilience possibly rooted in speculation over whether the 9.1% consumer-price reading marks the peak. European contracts rose.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.1%, hovering just above the two-year low hit on Tuesday, while U.S. Nasdaq futures shed 0.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend by rising 0.6%, helped by the yen’s weakness against the dollar boosting exporters.

Overnight U.S. data showed rising costs of fuel, food and rent drove the consumer price index (CPI) up 9.1% last month, leading to worries that the Fed could raise rates by an enormous 100 basis points at its meeting next month rather than the 75 that had been expected.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th July 2022

Volatility continues apace as the news flow is focussed on inflation and interest rates. 100bps being mooted now for the Fed, after yesterdays CPI reading. Bit early with the Dax and SPX longs yesterday but it did dip and rise in the end.

For today we have initial support at the daily pivot at the 7158 level. It would be good to see a climb from there to once again test the 7220 level, and then above that the next level of note at 7255. R1 is at 7215 as well to once again give resistance to that area, along with the 25ema on the daily at 7225, while R2 is at 7268.

The bulls will really need to be quick out the blocks today and likewise on the S&P500 to defend any drop down to the 3775 level again. Overnight they have defended 3775 though we may well be on for another test this morning.

If the 7158 level holds then we should see a bit more of an optimistic day. On the political front its seem to be between Rishi and Mourdant as was widely expected, at least in our chat room anyway!

If the bears break below the daily pivot then 7100 looks key - with the fib here and also S1, along with the round number. Below that however then 7048 is S2 and would probably be seen as once again the bears try and drive it down towards 7000.

All that said I am thinking a rise towards 7255 today....

S&P500
The bulls remain on the back foot, and need to defend the 3775 level as mentioned. We have climbed from there once again overnight, and a rise to 3820 looks like it may well play out this morning. 3820 looks key resistance though, and it may be a big ask to break above that on the first attempt today so a drop back from there would make sense. If the bulls manage to push through then 3850 is the now red 2h coral and the next hurdle. We could see the bears launch from here so keep an eye on this level.

So, could be on for another interesting one and lets see if the bulls can stage a bit of a fightback today. Good luck.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates