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Dip and rise today with 6765 support 6730 below | 6811 6872 resistance

#1 · 15th March 2021, 10:28 am

Quote from Nick on 15th March 2021, 10:28 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th March 2021
Fears of runaway inflation triggered a sharp rise in the cost of US government borrowing on Friday, increasing the risk that Rishi Sunak’s pandemic spending spree could become unaffordable. The yield on 10-year US government bonds climbed to its highest level in more than a year as the impact of Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus rippled through global markets. The benchmark rose to more than 1.6pc, compared with less than 1pc for most of 2020.

The move was closely watched in Whitehall, where the Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that even a one percentage point rise in borrowing costs in the coming years would push up Britain’s national debt interest bill by more than £20bn.
Such costs could increase pressure on central banks to lift interest rates in a battle to prevent economies from overheating as they emerge from lockdowns in the coming months.
Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to attempt to calm markets next week but not to force rates down for now.
"Groundless Slanders"
China accused the U.K. of “groundless slanders” after the British government said Beijing’s crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong wasn’t in compliance with a treaty that paved the way for the city’s return to Chinese control. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the country is in a "state of ongoing non-compliance" with the treaty, going further than the nation's previous criticisms of China have. China responded that the U.K. has no right of supervision or sovereignty over Hong Kong. In recent days, Chinese lawmakers approved an overhaul of the city’s election system that threatens to stack its legislature with pro-Beijing loyalists.
Steady Stocks
Stocks are set to kick off the week weighed down by a jump in bond yields ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar was mixed against its major peers. Futures pointed to Japan stocks dipping, while they were little changed in Australia. The S&P 500 Index closed higher Friday amid rallies in financial and industrial shares as the rotation into value shares resumed. Elsewhere, oil fell for the first week in two months to end below $65 a barrel. Bitcoin rose above $61,000 before pulling back.
Eye-Popping Data
China is set to report roaring economic growth in the first two months of the year, with figures largely distorted by comparisons from a year ago when the nation was the first in the world to go into lockdown. Growth has so far been fueled by an export and industrial-led boom, with consumer spending slow to pick up. With the pandemic now under control domestically and the economy mostly reopened, comparisons with a year ago make it difficult to assess the true momentum of the recovery, especially for consumers.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures were mixed Monday as benchmark Treasury yields traded around a one-year high and China data painted a patchy economic picture.
Ten-year Treasury yields stayed above 1.6% as vaccinations and the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus keep the spotlight on inflation risk amid an economic recovery. Australian and New Zealand 10-year rates rose Monday. The dollar edged up versus major peers.
China’s stocks extended declines, as persistent liquidity concerns overshadowed data showing the strength of the nation’s economic recovery. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures pared gains. The S&P 500 closed higher Friday amid rallies in financial and industrial shares, while the Nasdaq 100 slid.
In Hong Kong, Xiaomi Corp. surged after a temporary halt to a U.S. ban, while Tencent Holdings Ltd. fell on expectations that it faces increased regulatory supervision. Elsewhere, oil climbed and Bitcoin traded around $60,000 after surpassing $61,000 on the weekend in a meteoric rise.
Markets are preoccupied with rising long-term borrowing costs and their implications for reflation trades and the rotation in the stock market from growth to value shares. The Federal Reserve decision later in the week is one of a slew due from central banks globally.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Friday's bullishness has continued setting up a potential Bull Monday today, and a rise towards the 6815 resistance level to start with and potentially the top of the 20 day Raff channel at 6900. The bulls will certainly be keen to keep this momentum going, and the US S&P bulls will likely be aiming for the 4000 level where we have the top of the 20 day Raff channel on that (and just above R3 at 3995).
To start with we have a bullish 2 hour chart and decent looking support at the 6762 level, tallying nicely with the daily pivot at 6765, and also the 30m coral (green) showing an uptrend and support here. As such, we may well get a dip and rise play out today, and the bulls will be keen to defend this level.
A break of 6760 though and then 6730 looms large where we have S1 and the 200ema on the 30m chart. 6736 is also Fridays closing price so a bit of a gap close could play out if the 6765 breaks. The trend remains up for the moment though as you can see from the 10 day Raff channel, which is heading north at the moment.
I am expecting a bit of a reaction at the 6815 area though and we may well see some bears here - in fact overnight its dropped off the fib level at 6810 already, though not by much. The Asian session was mixed, so we may well get similar with a dip and rise playing out, similar to the ASX200 session.
It will certainly be interesting to see if the bulls can defend the 6765 level to start with, as that looks fairly key to begin with. Certainly worth an initial long here though.
The S&P bulls need to break the 3953 level as we have a bearish 2h chart on that currently and resistance here. As mentioned above, if they do so then 4000 should be seen. 3960 would also be a double top with the high from Thursday last week, though the daily chart is now bullish, with support at 3877.
So for today, it's all in the bulls court really, with a potential dip and rise playing out. Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th March 2021

Fears of runaway inflation triggered a sharp rise in the cost of US government borrowing on Friday, increasing the risk that Rishi Sunak’s pandemic spending spree could become unaffordable. The yield on 10-year US government bonds climbed to its highest level in more than a year as the impact of Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus rippled through global markets. The benchmark rose to more than 1.6pc, compared with less than 1pc for most of 2020.

The move was closely watched in Whitehall, where the Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that even a one percentage point rise in borrowing costs in the coming years would push up Britain’s national debt interest bill by more than £20bn.

Such costs could increase pressure on central banks to lift interest rates in a battle to prevent economies from overheating as they emerge from lockdowns in the coming months.

Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to attempt to calm markets next week but not to force rates down for now.

"Groundless Slanders"

China accused the U.K. of “groundless slanders” after the British government said Beijing’s crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong wasn’t in compliance with a treaty that paved the way for the city’s return to Chinese control. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the country is in a "state of ongoing non-compliance" with the treaty, going further than the nation's previous criticisms of China have. China responded that the U.K. has no right of supervision or sovereignty over Hong Kong. In recent days, Chinese lawmakers approved an overhaul of the city’s election system that threatens to stack its legislature with pro-Beijing loyalists.

Steady Stocks

Stocks are set to kick off the week weighed down by a jump in bond yields ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar was mixed against its major peers. Futures pointed to Japan stocks dipping, while they were little changed in Australia. The S&P 500 Index closed higher Friday amid rallies in financial and industrial shares as the rotation into value shares resumed. Elsewhere, oil fell for the first week in two months to end below $65 a barrel. Bitcoin rose above $61,000 before pulling back.

Eye-Popping Data

China is set to report roaring economic growth in the first two months of the year, with figures largely distorted by comparisons from a year ago when the nation was the first in the world to go into lockdown. Growth has so far been fueled by an export and industrial-led boom, with consumer spending slow to pick up. With the pandemic now under control domestically and the economy mostly reopened, comparisons with a year ago make it difficult to assess the true momentum of the recovery, especially for consumers.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures were mixed Monday as benchmark Treasury yields traded around a one-year high and China data painted a patchy economic picture.

Ten-year Treasury yields stayed above 1.6% as vaccinations and the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus keep the spotlight on inflation risk amid an economic recovery. Australian and New Zealand 10-year rates rose Monday. The dollar edged up versus major peers.

China’s stocks extended declines, as persistent liquidity concerns overshadowed data showing the strength of the nation’s economic recovery. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures pared gains. The S&P 500 closed higher Friday amid rallies in financial and industrial shares, while the Nasdaq 100 slid.

In Hong Kong, Xiaomi Corp. surged after a temporary halt to a U.S. ban, while Tencent Holdings Ltd. fell on expectations that it faces increased regulatory supervision. Elsewhere, oil climbed and Bitcoin traded around $60,000 after surpassing $61,000 on the weekend in a meteoric rise.

Markets are preoccupied with rising long-term borrowing costs and their implications for reflation trades and the rotation in the stock market from growth to value shares. The Federal Reserve decision later in the week is one of a slew due from central banks globally.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Friday's bullishness has continued setting up a potential Bull Monday today, and a rise towards the 6815 resistance level to start with and potentially the top of the 20 day Raff channel at 6900. The bulls will certainly be keen to keep this momentum going, and the US S&P bulls will likely be aiming for the 4000 level where we have the top of the 20 day Raff channel on that (and just above R3 at 3995).

To start with we have a bullish 2 hour chart and decent looking support at the 6762 level, tallying nicely with the daily pivot at 6765, and also the 30m coral (green) showing an uptrend and support here. As such, we may well get a dip and rise play out today, and the bulls will be keen to defend this level.

A break of 6760 though and then 6730 looms large where we have S1 and the 200ema on the 30m chart. 6736 is also Fridays closing price so a bit of a gap close could play out if the 6765 breaks. The trend remains up for the moment though as you can see from the 10 day Raff channel, which is heading north at the moment.

I am expecting a bit of a reaction at the 6815 area though and we may well see some bears here - in fact overnight its dropped off the fib level at 6810 already, though not by much. The Asian session was mixed, so we may well get similar with a dip and rise playing out, similar to the ASX200 session.

It will certainly be interesting to see if the bulls can defend the 6765 level to start with, as that looks fairly key to begin with. Certainly worth an initial long here though.

The S&P bulls need to break the 3953 level as we have a bearish 2h chart on that currently and resistance here. As mentioned above, if they do so then 4000 should be seen. 3960 would also be a double top with the high from Thursday last week, though the daily chart is now bullish, with support at 3877.

So for today, it's all in the bulls court really, with a potential dip and rise playing out. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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