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Dip and rise possibly with 7555 7518 support | 7603 7615 resistance | UK CPI 7%

#1 · 13th April 2022, 2:42 pm

Quote from Nick on 13th April 2022, 2:42 pm
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 has closed lower after the latest jobs data showed signs that the labour market continues to be tight. London's leading index shed 0.6% to close at 7,576.
Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures rose Wednesday amid a moderation in Treasury yields as investors calibrated inflation risks.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index climbed for the first time in three sessions, bolstered by Japan, though Chinese equities lagged. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts pushed higher while Europe’s edged down.
Markets continued to digest Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data, which came in at 8.5% for the headline number -- the highest in four decades -- but was better-than-expected at the core level that excludes volatile food and energy prices.
Treasuries trimmed an advance that was sparked by the core reading but yields remained mostly lower than before the figures. The core reading prompted traders to pare back expectations on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. A dollar gauge was steady.
New Zealand implemented a half-point interest-rate rise -- its biggest in 22 years -- again highlighting the trend of sharp monetary tightening across a range of economies. But the nation’s bonds rallied as traders reassessed how much tightening might lie ahead.
Oil hovered near $100 a barrel after Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to continue the war in Ukraine and China partially eased Covid curbs.
Investors are bracing for the latest earnings season as they evaluate the threat from inflation, amid concerns that rising commodity costs and more circumspect consumers will end up squeezing company profits.
Soaring Inflation
U.S. inflation rose by the most since 1981, adding pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates even more aggressively. The consumer price index increased 8.5% in March from a year earlier, with gasoline costs driving half of the monthly increase. The reading represents what many economists expect to be the peak of the current inflationary period, capturing the impact of soaring food and energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India also reported a 6.95% rise in consumer prices, a 17-month high, last month. As oil jumped back above $100 a barrel, concerns mounted inflationary pressures will stay elevated and hamper economic growth.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th April 2022
We certainly got the rise and dip on the S&P500 yesterday with a slightly fake looking pump to the 4470 level before dropping back to 4400 and where it started the day! Slightly different look for today across the board and that is more of a dip and rise to play out. The Dax, FTSE and S&P are all on resistance first thing as I write this at 14148, 7586 and 4430 so a dip down towards the pivot level on all three before some more upside would fit well, this morning at least.
The FTSE100 has been quite resilient again, though with gold climbing once again we may well see some more equity weakness creep in early this morning.
So, initial resistance at 7586 on the FTSE but a move above that will likely see a test of the 2h levels that are in play at 7603 for the Hull moving average and possibly the 7615 coral line. As such the 7610 level may be significant as we also have the key fib here. Worth a short here.
Above this 7615 then 7630 is R2 and we may even see a decent climb towards R3 at 7662 later on, especially if the US bulls continue to drive the S&P off that 4400 level.
For the bears on the FTSE they will be looking to break below the 30m coral which is at 7554, and has just gone green after the overnight rise. I think a dip down to this area first thing may well play out with a bounce from here. That is also just below the daily pivot support at 7563.
Below this then they will be looking at S1 at 7527 and the key fib at 7508. Its also worth noting that we have the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel at 7540 for support as well.
Similar pattern for the S&P and Dax really with a dip and rise looking likely. I am watching for 14035 support on the Dax, and the 4415 level on the S&P - though we have already climbed off this initially today. The 2h charts for both of these markets are now bullish as well which bodes well for further upside today and tomorrow.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 has closed lower after the latest jobs data showed signs that the labour market continues to be tight. London's leading index shed 0.6% to close at 7,576.

Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures rose Wednesday amid a moderation in Treasury yields as investors calibrated inflation risks.

MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index climbed for the first time in three sessions, bolstered by Japan, though Chinese equities lagged. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts pushed higher while Europe’s edged down.

Markets continued to digest Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data, which came in at 8.5% for the headline number -- the highest in four decades -- but was better-than-expected at the core level that excludes volatile food and energy prices.

Treasuries trimmed an advance that was sparked by the core reading but yields remained mostly lower than before the figures. The core reading prompted traders to pare back expectations on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. A dollar gauge was steady.

New Zealand implemented a half-point interest-rate rise -- its biggest in 22 years -- again highlighting the trend of sharp monetary tightening across a range of economies. But the nation’s bonds rallied as traders reassessed how much tightening might lie ahead.

Oil hovered near $100 a barrel after Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to continue the war in Ukraine and China partially eased Covid curbs.

Investors are bracing for the latest earnings season as they evaluate the threat from inflation, amid concerns that rising commodity costs and more circumspect consumers will end up squeezing company profits.

Soaring Inflation
U.S. inflation rose by the most since 1981, adding pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates even more aggressively. The consumer price index increased 8.5% in March from a year earlier, with gasoline costs driving half of the monthly increase. The reading represents what many economists expect to be the peak of the current inflationary period, capturing the impact of soaring food and energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India also reported a 6.95% rise in consumer prices, a 17-month high, last month. As oil jumped back above $100 a barrel, concerns mounted inflationary pressures will stay elevated and hamper economic growth.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th April 2022

We certainly got the rise and dip on the S&P500 yesterday with a slightly fake looking pump to the 4470 level before dropping back to 4400 and where it started the day! Slightly different look for today across the board and that is more of a dip and rise to play out. The Dax, FTSE and S&P are all on resistance first thing as I write this at 14148, 7586 and 4430 so a dip down towards the pivot level on all three before some more upside would fit well, this morning at least.

The FTSE100 has been quite resilient again, though with gold climbing once again we may well see some more equity weakness creep in early this morning.

So, initial resistance at 7586 on the FTSE but a move above that will likely see a test of the 2h levels that are in play at 7603 for the Hull moving average and possibly the 7615 coral line. As such the 7610 level may be significant as we also have the key fib here. Worth a short here.

Above this 7615 then 7630 is R2 and we may even see a decent climb towards R3 at 7662 later on, especially if the US bulls continue to drive the S&P off that 4400 level.

For the bears on the FTSE they will be looking to break below the 30m coral which is at 7554, and has just gone green after the overnight rise. I think a dip down to this area first thing may well play out with a bounce from here. That is also just below the daily pivot support at 7563.

Below this then they will be looking at S1 at 7527 and the key fib at 7508. Its also worth noting that we have the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel at 7540 for support as well.

Similar pattern for the S&P and Dax really with a dip and rise looking likely. I am watching for 14035 support on the Dax, and the 4415 level on the S&P - though we have already climbed off this initially today. The 2h charts for both of these markets are now bullish as well which bodes well for further upside today and tomorrow.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates