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Dip and rise again with 7240 7213 support | 7300 7337 resistance | Western Europe fourth wave

#1 · 19th November 2021, 10:43 am

Quote from Nick on 19th November 2021, 10:43 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
U.S. and European equity futures rose Friday while Chinese technology stocks weighed on Asia. Treasury yields and the dollar ticked up as traders evaluated the risk of faster monetary tightening to fight inflation.
Hong Kong equities underperformed as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. sank, contributing to a slide in a gauge of Chinese tech shares. Alibaba slashed its outlook for fiscal 2022 revenue amid intensifying competition, dwindling consumer spending and Beijing’s regulatory curbs. Confirmation of a stimulus package spurred a modest gain in Japanese shares.
Treasury yields edged up and a dollar gauge remained on course for a fourth weekly advance. Commodities including crude oil, iron ore and copper pushed higher. Gold advanced, but Bitcoin extended a slide, dropping to about $56,000.
Alibaba
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. fell 11%, the most since its debut in Hong Kong, after a cut in its fiscal 2022 outlook spurred concerns about intensifying competition and dwindling consumer spending in China. The disappointing forecast followed sales that missed analyst estimates for a second straight quarter. Alibaba posted a less-than-expected 29% rise in revenue for the September quarter to 200.7 billion yuan ($31.4 billion). It forecast 20% to 23% growth in fiscal 2022 revenue, short of the 27% that analysts were projecting.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th November 2021
Well we certainly got the dip and rise play out yesterday and after the slight overshoot (nee stop hunt) on the S&P to 4671 we have climbed steadily since and are back above 4700. This bodes well for the bulls and I am fully expecting more upside today towards the 4736 level where we have R2. The S&P500 Raff channels continue to head up so buying the dip is still the preferred play for the moment.
Slight caveat is that its Friday so being a bit more cautious today - lower stakes etc.
For the FTSE100, we dipped to 7240 so that is now the line in the sand and in fact S1 is at 7239 today so should we revisit that level then I would like to see that hold for another bounce. The dip yesterday did get quite aggressive yesterday at one point, and for no real reason, so more than likely it was just pumped there to hover up some stops, as that IG client sentiment started to flick to a long bias at 7300 - so 50 point stops at 7250 probably looked like easy pickings.
Initial resistance now is at the 7300 to 7313 area where we have a few indicators of note. As such we could well see a drop down to the daily pivot and 30m coral (now green) support level at the 7263 level. Again, I would like to see this hold, as this would keep alive the chance for a rise towards the 7337 level.
With that move yesterday and lending weight to the 7240 support area is that the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel is also now there. Was that flush just the precursor to the year end strength kicking in? Seasonality continues to play its part and we are now nearing the end of the November weakness period so if the S&P continues on its path upwards then the others should follow. The FTSE100 remains on track for the 7500 year end.
Below 7240 though and the picture changes a bit. 7213 would likely be seen as we have the key fib here and also S2, along with the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel. The bears will also be buoyed by the fact that they have driven it down from 7400. Even lower down the next daily support is at the 7150 level, Obviously not expecting us to get that low today but worth bearing in mind.
For the bulls, these dips and then rises have enabled the overbought RSI indicators to reset a bit and set up a better technical picture for more upside. For the FTSE100, above the 7313 level then as mentioned I am looking for 7337 today and think that should we remain bullishly biased today we will see that. Above that then a retest of the 7400 level looks likely and we have the top of the 10 day Raff channel here.
With the drop off 7400 this week the 10d Raff channel has started to head down but that could quite easily reverse with a strong showing today and Monday.
Good luck today and have a great weekend. Continue to buy the dips for the moment!

FTSE 100 Analysis | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

U.S. and European equity futures rose Friday while Chinese technology stocks weighed on Asia. Treasury yields and the dollar ticked up as traders evaluated the risk of faster monetary tightening to fight inflation.

Hong Kong equities underperformed as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. sank, contributing to a slide in a gauge of Chinese tech shares. Alibaba slashed its outlook for fiscal 2022 revenue amid intensifying competition, dwindling consumer spending and Beijing’s regulatory curbs. Confirmation of a stimulus package spurred a modest gain in Japanese shares.

Treasury yields edged up and a dollar gauge remained on course for a fourth weekly advance. Commodities including crude oil, iron ore and copper pushed higher. Gold advanced, but Bitcoin extended a slide, dropping to about $56,000.

Alibaba
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. fell 11%, the most since its debut in Hong Kong, after a cut in its fiscal 2022 outlook spurred concerns about intensifying competition and dwindling consumer spending in China. The disappointing forecast followed sales that missed analyst estimates for a second straight quarter. Alibaba posted a less-than-expected 29% rise in revenue for the September quarter to 200.7 billion yuan ($31.4 billion). It forecast 20% to 23% growth in fiscal 2022 revenue, short of the 27% that analysts were projecting.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th November 2021

Well we certainly got the dip and rise play out yesterday and after the slight overshoot (nee stop hunt) on the S&P to 4671 we have climbed steadily since and are back above 4700. This bodes well for the bulls and I am fully expecting more upside today towards the 4736 level where we have R2. The S&P500 Raff channels continue to head up so buying the dip is still the preferred play for the moment.

Slight caveat is that its Friday so being a bit more cautious today - lower stakes etc.

For the FTSE100, we dipped to 7240 so that is now the line in the sand and in fact S1 is at 7239 today so should we revisit that level then I would like to see that hold for another bounce. The dip yesterday did get quite aggressive yesterday at one point, and for no real reason, so more than likely it was just pumped there to hover up some stops, as that IG client sentiment started to flick to a long bias at 7300 - so 50 point stops at 7250 probably looked like easy pickings.

Initial resistance now is at the 7300 to 7313 area where we have a few indicators of note. As such we could well see a drop down to the daily pivot and 30m coral (now green) support level at the 7263 level. Again, I would like to see this hold, as this would keep alive the chance for a rise towards the 7337 level.

With that move yesterday and lending weight to the 7240 support area is that the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel is also now there. Was that flush just the precursor to the year end strength kicking in? Seasonality continues to play its part and we are now nearing the end of the November weakness period so if the S&P continues on its path upwards then the others should follow. The FTSE100 remains on track for the 7500 year end.

Below 7240 though and the picture changes a bit. 7213 would likely be seen as we have the key fib here and also S2, along with the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel. The bears will also be buoyed by the fact that they have driven it down from 7400. Even lower down the next daily support is at the 7150 level, Obviously not expecting us to get that low today but worth bearing in mind.

For the bulls, these dips and then rises have enabled the overbought RSI indicators to reset a bit and set up a better technical picture for more upside. For the FTSE100, above the 7313 level then as mentioned I am looking for 7337 today and think that should we remain bullishly biased today we will see that. Above that then a retest of the 7400 level looks likely and we have the top of the 10 day Raff channel here.

With the drop off 7400 this week the 10d Raff channel has started to head down but that could quite easily reverse with a strong showing today and Monday.

Good luck today and have a great weekend. Continue to buy the dips for the moment!