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Can the bulls defend 7800 with UK GDP flatlining in Feb | 7830 7873 7898 resistance | 7762 support

#1 · 13th April 2023, 9:32 am

Quote from Nick on 13th April 2023, 9:32 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th April 2023
Asian stocks struggled on Thursday, dragged by selling in Hong Kong tech shares, while the dollar was under pressure and short-dated bonds were firm as softening U.S. inflation seemed to suggest the U.S. rate hike cycle was nearing its end.
Overnight data showed U.S. consumer prices barely rose in March. The annual 5% headline rise was the smallest since May 2021 and down from 9.1% last June. Core CPI, which strips out energy and food prices, remained sticky at an annual 5.6%.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting also showed some policymakers considered pausing hikes, before agreeing to last month’s 25 basis point rise, with concerns centering on whether bank wobbles would cause a broader tightening in credit.
The bulls are hanging in there but UK GDP has just come in this morning at 0% with no growth during February. As we will more than likely see the Fed increase rates again, despite inflation slowing the bulls will have to fight pretty hard. We will probably have a bit of a drop back today and I am still looking for the FTSE100 to test the 25ema on the daily chart since it went bullish, with the 7695 level for that. If that holds then it bodes well for further upside into April though. Stay mindful of the seasonality.....
With the drop off 7860 yesterday the 2h chart is bearish to start with and has 7825 as resistance. We also have the 30m coral here, now red, so we could see the overnight strength falter a bit here first thing. The ASX200 had a small rise and dip as well and we may well follow suit, especially as the S&P500 has dipped back below the 4100 level overnight.
Above 7825 then the bulls will be aiming for 7849 for R1 and also yesterdays high at 7860. We also still have the daily resistance in play at 7930 and a short at this level will be worth a go if seen.
For the bears, then they will be looking to break below the 7800 level and target the cluster of supports at the 7770 area - S1, 30m 200ema and the key fib are all here. As such initially that should hold, and a bounce back later towards the daily pivot at 7810 would fit pretty well. Possibly push higher too if the US gets bullish.
Below this though and the bottom of the 10d Raff channel at the 7715 level and I would like to see any test of this hold, mainly as the trend is still up so buying the dip on the longer times frames is still the right strategy. Its also near that daily 25ema.
We are now also above the daily coral level (7770) and whilst still red, it may well change to green (uptrend) if the bulls defend the 7770 level today.
So the focus once again shifts back to the Fed and their interest rate decision. Personally I think other 25bps increase to further temper inflation (apparently!) and then a pause for the rest of Q2....
Good luck today.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th April 2023

Asian stocks struggled on Thursday, dragged by selling in Hong Kong tech shares, while the dollar was under pressure and short-dated bonds were firm as softening U.S. inflation seemed to suggest the U.S. rate hike cycle was nearing its end.

Overnight data showed U.S. consumer prices barely rose in March. The annual 5% headline rise was the smallest since May 2021 and down from 9.1% last June. Core CPI, which strips out energy and food prices, remained sticky at an annual 5.6%.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting also showed some policymakers considered pausing hikes, before agreeing to last month’s 25 basis point rise, with concerns centering on whether bank wobbles would cause a broader tightening in credit.

The bulls are hanging in there but UK GDP has just come in this morning at 0% with no growth during February. As we will more than likely see the Fed increase rates again, despite inflation slowing the bulls will have to fight pretty hard. We will probably have a bit of a drop back today and I am still looking for the FTSE100 to test the 25ema on the daily chart since it went bullish, with the 7695 level for that. If that holds then it bodes well for further upside into April though. Stay mindful of the seasonality.....

With the drop off 7860 yesterday the 2h chart is bearish to start with and has 7825 as resistance. We also have the 30m coral here, now red, so we could see the overnight strength falter a bit here first thing. The ASX200 had a small rise and dip as well and we may well follow suit, especially as the S&P500 has dipped back below the 4100 level overnight.

Above 7825 then the bulls will be aiming for 7849 for R1 and also yesterdays high at 7860. We also still have the daily resistance in play at 7930 and a short at this level will be worth a go if seen.

For the bears, then they will be looking to break below the 7800 level and target the cluster of supports at the 7770 area - S1, 30m 200ema and the key fib are all here. As such initially that should hold, and a bounce back later towards the daily pivot at 7810 would fit pretty well. Possibly push higher too if the US gets bullish.

Below this though and the bottom of the 10d Raff channel at the 7715 level and I would like to see any test of this hold, mainly as the trend is still up so buying the dip on the longer times frames is still the right strategy. Its also near that daily 25ema.

We are now also above the daily coral level (7770) and whilst still red, it may well change to green (uptrend) if the bulls defend the 7770 level today.

So the focus once again shifts back to the Fed and their interest rate decision. Personally I think other 25bps increase to further temper inflation (apparently!) and then a pause for the rest of Q2....

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates