Quote from Nick on 9th June 2020, 9:37 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 9th June 2020

• FTSE 100 dips slightly after Friday’s surge
• US shares rise, with S&P 500 now nearly flat on year
• EasyJet boss says airlines have ‘strong case’ against quarantine rules
• German industrial production continued to plunge in April
• Eurozone sentiment picks up

European stock markets consolidated Monday after strong pre-weekend gains, with optimism that economies are emerging from coronavirus gloom limiting the losses from profit-taking. In Europe, London, Frankfurt and Paris were all in mildly negative territory at the close and on Wall Street, the Dow Jones gained nearly 300 points by the late New York morning. London's benchmark index dipped 0.18pc while the FTSE 250 fell 0.51pc

Wall Street has now clawed back all of its 2020 losses despite the US economy being officially declared in recession. The longest economic expansion in US history ended in February as Covid-19 started to wreak havoc, ­according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. America’s official arbiter of recessions said the pandemic had triggered a downturn of “unprecedented magnitude” with a “broad reach” across the economy.

The expansion started in June 2009 and lasted a record 128 months, before the economy reached its “peak” in February. The NBER defines a recession as several months of declining economic activity. However, traders continued to shrug off the impact of 120,000 US coronavirus deaths, tens of millions of job losses and the worst recession for more than a century.

The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 1.2pc on Monday night and officially went into positive territory for the year to date. The Nasdaq closed at a record high, up more than 40pc from its March lows, at 9,924.74 points. The milestone is tribute to a seemingly unquenchable rally on US stock markets, which have rebounded from historic drops in February and March despite a run of catastrophic economic data.

The share price rally, which has also taken hold in Europe to a lesser extent, was given a further boost by a employment report last Friday. It defied all forecasts to show that the US added 2.5m jobs in May, reversing some of the massive lay-offs since the pandemic took hold.

But there has been a change in tone in the past few weeks. High-yielding value stocks, which underperformed growth stocks for years, are now seeing an uptick that JP Morgan analysts said reflected an “exceptionally powerful” rotation in investor behaviour. Companies in the financial, industrial and energy markets have all benefited from the shift. Many hedge funds are still betting against a long-term recovery, however, amid predictions that the economy may shrink by more than 40pc in the second quarter of 2020.

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Global stocks traded mixed Tuesday as investors weighed whether the recent rally may be excessive given still-poor economic conditions. Treasuries rose with the yen. S&P 500 futures dipped after the benchmark closed at a 15-week high, bringing its rally from the March low to almost 45%. European contracts gained. Australian shares jumped after a holiday, while stocks in Hong Kong pushed higher. Japanese stocks slipped with their Korean counterparts, with traders monitoring news that North Korea will shut contact with the South. The dollar headed for a ninth day of declines, the longest slide in more than a decade, while oil edged up.

We got on that rise well yesterday and it has shaken off the bears at the 6500 level once again overnight. As such we may well pop a little bit higher towards the 6527 fib level, which is also just below R1 for today which is at 6534. With the slight stall yesterday once we got to 6515, the 2 hour chart has gone bearish with resistance to start with at 6507.

The S&P has also held on to the bullish sentiment and has initial resistance from the fib level at 3238 to start with. Above this then the 3275 level where we have the top of the 10 day Raff is still looking like the next major level for resistance and should we see that later today then I think a short here is worth a go.  As I write this it is just double topping with yesterday's high though at 3233 so the bulls will need to break above this to start with.

For the FTSE bears (if there are any left!) they will be looking for a drop down towards the 6443 support level. A break of that and then we have 6399 for the 200ema on the 30min chart, and then the daily support at 6315.

So, looking for a rise towards the 6525 level this morning as long as they can break 6500 then maybe a bit of profit taking and an attempt at a bear Tuesday there.

Good luck today.

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