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Buy the rumour sell the news | ECB rate | 7221 7203 7165 support | 7300 7350 resistance

#1 · 21st July 2022, 10:20 am

Quote from Nick on 21st July 2022, 10:20 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
A two-day strong run for the FTSE 100 came to an end Wednesday as the wind came out of European markets. The index ended the day down 0.4% to 7,264.31 as some investors cashed in on a couple of days of rises.
Asian stocks slid with US futures Thursday as investors weighed signals from the latest corporate earnings and geopolitical risks in Europe.
An Asian stock gauge is on track to end a three-day winning streak, dragged down by Hong Kong. Futures retreated in the US and Europe, where Italy’s government looked set to collapse. The S&P 500 posted its first back-to-back gain in almost two weeks, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed.
Asian stocks inched lower while the dollar held firm on Thursday as a looming interest rate hike in Europe and uncertainty over the westward supply of Russian gas kept traders on edge.
Wall Street indexes rallied overnight but even better-than-expected results from Tesla after hours couldn't carry the positive mood into the Asia session. read more
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.1%.
Market focus is on the resumption of gas flows along the biggest pipeline from Russia to Germany. A planned 10-day outage is set to end at 0400 GMT. If flow isn't resumed, or is lacklustre, it will stoke worries about winter supplies.
The European Central Bank also meets on Thursday to begin Europe's rate-hike cycle. Markets are hedging bets on a hike of either 25 basis points or 50 bps, with the latter perhaps able to support a euro that has slipped below $1 this month.
Rare Discussion
US President Joe Biden says he expects to speak to Chinese leader Xi Jinping “within the next 10 days.” The two spoke back in March. Biden has been expected to announce his decision on whether to scrap some of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Separately, China’s envoy to the US said the Biden administration is undermining the “One China” policy through its support of Taiwan and is exacerbating tensions with its human rights claims over Beijing’s treatment of Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 21st July 2022
Todays big event is the ECB rate decision with a 0.25% increase forecasted. It will be followed but he press conference which will also give some further guidance. Some could say that as it's not unexpected this news is priced in already, along with a BoE rate rise to follow on (50bps mooted). Markets are certainly a bit more buoyant than they have been, and the Dax has broken above the 13000 level pretty well, and the FTSE100 has pulled away once again from the 7000 level. For the S&P500 it has also moved through the 3955 level (that is now likely to act as support for a push towards 4000 and higher).
The problem is that inflation is still rampant, though a decrease in energy costs, and the resumption of gas flow along Nordstream may well help to temper that in the short term. Come winter we will see what happens. Germany et al have been stockpiling gas the past few months as well though it's worth remembering. Certainly going to be interesting times ahead with UK inflation hitting record highs and higher than market expectation, real pay under pressure and the BOE starting to shape up with a possible 0.5% rate rise. The Fed will now dictate future UK/ECB rate policies.
Initial resistance today is at the 7297 level where we have the Hull MA on the 2h chart, and that is now bearish after yesterdays drop off 7350. As such we could see a move down off this to start with before a bit of buy the rumour kicks in ahead of the ECB. R1 is at 7315 as well for today, and then the key fib just above this at 7321.
The 30m chart is just starting to go bullish as I write this and has EMA support at 7262. That said we are not far above this and a drop down to the stronger support at 7240 and possibly the key fib at 7221 would make sense to start with today.
The bulls will be keen to push up past 7300 though and reclaim 7350 with yesterdays high, and then ultimately on to 7388 for a test of R2.
S&P500
The S&P500 looks more bullish though and as mentioned if the 3950 area can hold we may well see a rise towards R2 at 4002 and possibly even R3 at 4031. If the bears break below the 3947 daily pivot though then we will likely see a slide down to the 3920 S1 level and possibly as low as 3900, where we have the 30m 200ema and also the 2h coral. I would like to see this hold though otherwise it might get quite bearish again!
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

A two-day strong run for the FTSE 100 came to an end Wednesday as the wind came out of European markets. The index ended the day down 0.4% to 7,264.31 as some investors cashed in on a couple of days of rises.

Asian stocks slid with US futures Thursday as investors weighed signals from the latest corporate earnings and geopolitical risks in Europe.

An Asian stock gauge is on track to end a three-day winning streak, dragged down by Hong Kong. Futures retreated in the US and Europe, where Italy’s government looked set to collapse. The S&P 500 posted its first back-to-back gain in almost two weeks, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed.

Asian stocks inched lower while the dollar held firm on Thursday as a looming interest rate hike in Europe and uncertainty over the westward supply of Russian gas kept traders on edge.

Wall Street indexes rallied overnight but even better-than-expected results from Tesla after hours couldn't carry the positive mood into the Asia session. read more

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.1%.

Market focus is on the resumption of gas flows along the biggest pipeline from Russia to Germany. A planned 10-day outage is set to end at 0400 GMT. If flow isn't resumed, or is lacklustre, it will stoke worries about winter supplies.

The European Central Bank also meets on Thursday to begin Europe's rate-hike cycle. Markets are hedging bets on a hike of either 25 basis points or 50 bps, with the latter perhaps able to support a euro that has slipped below $1 this month.

Rare Discussion
US President Joe Biden says he expects to speak to Chinese leader Xi Jinping “within the next 10 days.” The two spoke back in March. Biden has been expected to announce his decision on whether to scrap some of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Separately, China’s envoy to the US said the Biden administration is undermining the “One China” policy through its support of Taiwan and is exacerbating tensions with its human rights claims over Beijing’s treatment of Hong Kong and Xinjiang.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 21st July 2022

Todays big event is the ECB rate decision with a 0.25% increase forecasted. It will be followed but he press conference which will also give some further guidance. Some could say that as it's not unexpected this news is priced in already, along with a BoE rate rise to follow on (50bps mooted). Markets are certainly a bit more buoyant than they have been, and the Dax has broken above the 13000 level pretty well, and the FTSE100 has pulled away once again from the 7000 level. For the S&P500 it has also moved through the 3955 level (that is now likely to act as support for a push towards 4000 and higher).

The problem is that inflation is still rampant, though a decrease in energy costs, and the resumption of gas flow along Nordstream may well help to temper that in the short term. Come winter we will see what happens. Germany et al have been stockpiling gas the past few months as well though it's worth remembering. Certainly going to be interesting times ahead with UK inflation hitting record highs and higher than market expectation, real pay under pressure and the BOE starting to shape up with a possible 0.5% rate rise. The Fed will now dictate future UK/ECB rate policies.

Initial resistance today is at the 7297 level where we have the Hull MA on the 2h chart, and that is now bearish after yesterdays drop off 7350. As such we could see a move down off this to start with before a bit of buy the rumour kicks in ahead of the ECB. R1 is at 7315 as well for today, and then the key fib just above this at 7321.

The 30m chart is just starting to go bullish as I write this and has EMA support at 7262. That said we are not far above this and a drop down to the stronger support at 7240 and possibly the key fib at 7221 would make sense to start with today.

The bulls will be keen to push up past 7300 though and reclaim 7350 with yesterdays high, and then ultimately on to 7388 for a test of R2.

S&P500
The S&P500 looks more bullish though and as mentioned if the 3950 area can hold we may well see a rise towards R2 at 4002 and possibly even R3 at 4031. If the bears break below the 3947 daily pivot though then we will likely see a slide down to the 3920 S1 level and possibly as low as 3900, where we have the 30m 200ema and also the 2h coral. I would like to see this hold though otherwise it might get quite bearish again!

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates