Quote from Nick on 24th April 2020, 9:19 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 24th April 2020

• US activity drops amid historic falls in purchasing managers’ index readings. Europe and the US saw historic falls in purchasing managers’ index readings, while a further 4.4m people claimed jobless benefit in the US last week, bringing the five-week total above 26m.
• Business activity in UK, France and Germany collapses
• The EU Council held a crunch meeting, but ECB chief Christine Lagarde said action from the bloc was "too little, too late".
• Stock markets had a quiet day, with the FTSE 100 finishing 1pc higher, but falling just shy of the 5850 level. The S&P managed 2846 before selling off on news that the latest drug from Gilead Sciences was proven to be ineffective

A potential antiviral drug for coronavirus has proven to be ineffective in its first randomised clinical trial, the FT is reporting, disappointing scientists and investors who had high hopes for remdesivir. The disappointing results were revealed in draft documents published accidentally by WHO.

Global oil prices have extended gains as tensions in the Gulf escalated after President Donald Trump threatened to "shoot down" any Iranian ship that "harasses" an American vessel. Iran responded to by saying it would issue a "crushing response" to President Trump's threats.  Brent crude surged above $22 a barrel, while WTI climbed above $18 a barrel in New York.

Virus Update

U.S. cases rose at the slowest pace in three weeks, but California reported the most fatalities in one 24-hour period. New York’s hospitalizations were relatively flat, which Governor Andrew Cuomo said “is not great news.” As President Donald Trump offers a muddled response and ad hoc policy swings, his public support is sliding. Spain reported the greatest number of new cases and fatalities in almost a week, while the U.K. reported its biggest weekly tally for 20 years on Tuesday. All over Europe, the virus is leading countries to reach unwanted milestones: new death toll records. Still, Germany is one European bright spot and in Italy, recoveries from the coronavirus overtook new infections for the first time. Analysts are warning that Indonesia's relatively lax social-distancing measures mean its economy will take much longer to recover than others in Southeast Asia, while Japan seeks to extend its Golden Week holiday to tame the spread of the virus. Cases around the world have topped 2.6 million, with deaths exceeding 187,000.[Bloomberg]

Gilead Sciences

Gilead shares were whipsawed for the second time in a week after a summary of a Chinese trial of its Covid-19 drug remdesivir appeared to show that it was a failure. The synopsis, which the company and a scientist working on the trial said didn’t fairly represent the actual results, saw Gilead’s shares closed down 4.3% to $77.78 on Thursday in New York. The World Health Organization, which has been helping coordinate the global response to the virus, said it accidentally posted the results on a website that helps track therapies for the disease. The summary indicated that the drug wasn’t associated with patients getting better more quickly; and 13.9% of patients getting the drug died, versus 12.8% getting standard care.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

For today, we may well see the bulls stage another fightback as the S&P has remained above the 25ema support on the daily, which is still at the 2740 area for the moment, and the ASX200 had a bullish session ahead of the weekend. As its Friday it does pay to be slightly more cautious anyway, so bear that in mind.

For support to start with we have the key fib at the 5728 level and this area has held overnight, so it will be interesting to see if this is defended initially. We have the green 2 hour coral here for this morning as well. If not then a drop down to the 5670 level and just above S2 looks like it may well play out. If we do get the bulls quick out the blocks this morning then I am thinking that we should see a rise towards the 5850 level again, and also possibly the more significant resistance just above this at 5887 where we have R2 and also the cam break out level. As such a short here looks to be worth a go.

If the bulls were to push past that then 5947 is the top of the 10 day Raff channel and still looks like it is going to be tested at some point.

Initially I am looking at an early rise towards the daily pivot and red 30min coral at the 5775 level, where we may see a stutter from any early session bounce. If the bulls can push past this then we should see more bullishness as we head towards the close. The pattern more often than not on Fridays has been the ramp into the close as well, especially on the US markets. The S&P bulls will certainly be keen to buy up this drop from 2846.

So, whilst we have dropped off the resistance levels at 2850 and 5830, we may well see a rise back towards these areas today. Good luck today and have a good weekend.

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