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Bulls still in control with US inflation news out | 7838 7867 resistance | 7737 support

#1 · 12th April 2023, 9:59 am

Quote from Nick on 12th April 2023, 9:59 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th April 2023
Asian equities inched lower on Wednesday ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report that will likely influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path, with markets wagering another hike in interest rates at the central bank’s next meeting.
Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and then pausing for the subsequent meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday said he feels the U.S. central bank may soon be done raising interest rates, but reiterated the desire to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed last month raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%.
The S&P500 had a decent bounce yesterday off the 4103 support level and the bulls will be keen to continue that into today. It will be all eyes on the US inflation report later on though, at 13:30. The core inflation rate is forecasted to rise to 5.6% while the YoY a drop to 5.2% from 6% previously. Either way expect some volatility at this time.
For the FTSE100, it has dipped below the 7800 level again, despite nudging above that yesterday and today the bulls need to break 7815 initially, to try for the 7840 area. With R2 here and also the key fib, this level may well see a stutter (and again depending on inflation data and it may well hit this level prior to the news - buy the rumour sell the news) here and then drop off again.
Above the 7840 level though and the bulls will be keen to try and get it towards that daily resistance level at 7930 though that is probably a big ask for today.
The ASX200 had a rise and dip play out and we may well see something similar on the FTSE100, at least initially.
For the bears they will be looking to break the 7770 level to start with as we have the green 2h coral here, and if they did then a possible drop down to the 7740 area where we have a cluster of supports - S2, 30m 200ema, and the key fib - and a level that it would be keen to defend. Ergo a long around this area would fit pretty well.
With the drop off the 7810 level the 2h Hull MAs have gone bearish again, with 7800 initial resistance from them. A smaller pull back in the overall bullish trend though looks like it is playing out as the Raff channels across the board are all heading up still. The bottom of the 10d Raff on the FTSE100 is at the 7745 level so lends weight to a bounce around this area.
So could be an interesting day, don't forget the inflation data at 13:30, and the dividend today is just 6.21.
Good luck.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th April 2023

Asian equities inched lower on Wednesday ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report that will likely influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path, with markets wagering another hike in interest rates at the central bank’s next meeting.

Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and then pausing for the subsequent meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday said he feels the U.S. central bank may soon be done raising interest rates, but reiterated the desire to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed last month raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%.

The S&P500 had a decent bounce yesterday off the 4103 support level and the bulls will be keen to continue that into today. It will be all eyes on the US inflation report later on though, at 13:30. The core inflation rate is forecasted to rise to 5.6% while the YoY a drop to 5.2% from 6% previously. Either way expect some volatility at this time.

For the FTSE100, it has dipped below the 7800 level again, despite nudging above that yesterday and today the bulls need to break 7815 initially, to try for the 7840 area. With R2 here and also the key fib, this level may well see a stutter (and again depending on inflation data and it may well hit this level prior to the news - buy the rumour sell the news) here and then drop off again.

Above the 7840 level though and the bulls will be keen to try and get it towards that daily resistance level at 7930 though that is probably a big ask for today.

The ASX200 had a rise and dip play out and we may well see something similar on the FTSE100, at least initially.

For the bears they will be looking to break the 7770 level to start with as we have the green 2h coral here, and if they did then a possible drop down to the 7740 area where we have a cluster of supports - S2, 30m 200ema, and the key fib - and a level that it would be keen to defend. Ergo a long around this area would fit pretty well.

With the drop off the 7810 level the 2h Hull MAs have gone bearish again, with 7800 initial resistance from them. A smaller pull back in the overall bullish trend though looks like it is playing out as the Raff channels across the board are all heading up still. The bottom of the 10d Raff on the FTSE100 is at the 7745 level so lends weight to a bounce around this area.

So could be an interesting day, don't forget the inflation data at 13:30, and the dividend today is just 6.21.

Good luck.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates