Quote from Nick on 5th August 2020, 10:15 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th August 2020

Here's a quick recap of Tuesday:

• Stock markets recovered from early weakness as optimism about a fresh US economic stimulus package crept back into trading rooms.
• Golds breaks $2000
• Democrats and Republicans are battling to hammer out a new package to help the US economy recover from the ravages of the pandemic, with analysts pointing to reports claiming good progress had been made.
• Europe's stock markets ended the session mostly higher, the main exception being Frankfurt, having clawed back earlier losses.
• On Wall Street, the Dow had added over 100 points by the end of the New York morning, after reversing a weaker opening trend.

The FTSE 100 found itself in a tug-of-war today as share-price shifts for some of London’s biggest companies left the blue-chip bourse in a state of equilibrium. At the end of the trading session, Europe's major equity benchmarks showed modest  gains while the Dax underperformed.
London's benchmark index ended 0.05pc higher to 6,036 while the FTSE 250 jumped 0.73pc to 17,283.25.

Trade Deal Review

Senior U.S. and Chinese officials are planning to assess the nations’ phase-one trade agreement this month against a backdrop of rising tensions between the countries, according to people briefed on the matter. The discussion, led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, would take place on or around Aug. 15, six months after the agreement took effect, as directed in the text of the accord, the people said. The White House declined to comment, and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. [Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Asian stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors mulled the progress of stimulus talks in Washington and reports of a plan to review the U.S.-China trade deal. The dollar declined versus peers. Shares pared losses in Japan and Australia. They rose in South Korea and Hong Kong, with more moderate gains in Shanghai. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the index wavered between losses and gains through Tuesday before closing modestly higher. Gold dipped after hitting a record high. Ten-year Treasury yields stayed near their lowest since March. China’s yuan strengthened to its highest level since March 11, amid hopes that tensions with the U.S. will stay in check before the two sides review their phase-one trade pact later this month.

We got the drop down to 6000 then the rally to the 6060 area, and today it looks like the 6030 level where we have the daily pivot and the 200ema on the 30min chart will act as support. Choppiness continues! With yesterday's rise the 2 hour chart has gone bullish again with key support from both the coral and the Hull moving average at the 5965 level. As such should we see that area then a long here is worth a go.

It would appear that we are still on a path towards the 25ema on the daily though which sits at 6135 for today, and also lines up nicely with the top of the 10 day Raff channel. Initial resistance today though is at 6075 where we have R1 and the key fib, and the bulls will need to break this level. It's also worth shorting here for a drop down to that 6030, and possibly lower if the bears have their way.

Gold and silver continue climbing apace, and if that is a flight to safety we might be in for the usual weak August on the indices. No sign so far though as the S&P continue rising also, with 3358 looking to be the next key level if the bulls can break above the 3320 level today. That may well help the FTSE again, with cable hovering around the 130 level still. Vix is back on its yearly average around the 23 level, but if selling starts we may well see that start to rise again.

For the FTSE, should the bulls break through the 6140 level 6228 is the daily coral line, then the top of the 20 day Raff at 6293 though that might be a tad optimistic for today! That 25ema reaction will be interesting at 6135 though should we get there so watching this closely.

So, looking at the 6075 and 6135 levels for resistance, 6030 5970 as support. Good luck today.

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