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Bulls really need to break 7226 to push higher | 7190 7150 support | 7244 7264 resistance above 7226

FTSE 100 Analysis | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook

  • FTSE 100 falls 0.5pc Thursday while US stocks dip

Most Asian stocks rose Friday and the dollar slipped as a report that developer China Evergrande Group pulled back from the brink of default aided sentiment. MSCI Inc.’s gauge of Asia-Pacific equities edged up amid a rally in Chinese property shares. Local media said Evergrande paid a dollar-bond coupon before a weekend deadline. Chinese junk bonds and the Australian dollar climbed. The report eased concerns about possible contagion from any default by the firm.

The S&P 500 edged up to a record overnight but the mood soured after the cash session when Snap Inc. -- owner of the Snapchat app -- tumbled on a tempered earnings outlook, hurting other technology shares in late trading. Nasdaq 100 futures retreated, S&P 500 contracts were little changed and European ones advanced.

Oil prices fell back from a seven-year high yesterday amid a stronger dollar and a wider easing of commodities. Prices fell as much as 1pc after holding at the highest level since 2014 for most of the week. Commodities including iron ore were dragged down by jitters about Chinese property group Evergrande, while the dollar rose, making energy and metals priced in the currency less attractive.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 22nd October 2021

The bulls are hanging in there but we are still just treading water around the 7200 level. They now need to break above the 7226 level initially for a push higher however it looks likely that we will get a dip and rise play out today. The S&P made another new high yesterday but is also consolidating a bit ready for the next push up towards the 4600 area - will it make it?

Friday so will pay to be a little bit cautious today.

Initial support on the FTSE is at the 30m coral and the daily pivot at the 7200 level and if the bulls hold this then we may well see a kick up towards that red coral on the 2h at 7226. A move below 7190 will however likely lead down to a test of S2 and the key fib at 7150, which I would like to see hold for a push back up.

That may well fit with a slide on the S&P500 down to the 4521 S1 level, though we do have the 2h coral now green and untested at 4537 initially. The RSIs are a little toppy across the board so a bit of cooling off before the next leg up would make sense.

Below the 7150 level then a slide down towards the 7120 area would be likely, with 7050 below that.

If the bulls manage to push past the 7230 level today then 7245 is the key fib and R2, with that 7266 R3 level back on the radar. There is also some daily resistance just above this at 7275. After all the work this week I think the bulls will be keen to end the week strongly.

We have had a bit of a miss on UK retail sales data this morning:
UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel M/M: Sep -0.6% (est 0.3%; prev -1.2%, prevR -0.7%) - Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Y/Y: Sep -2.6% (est -1.6%; prev -0.9%, prevR -1.1%)

So, looking at a rise and dip today across the board with new ATHs on the S&P soon. The FTSE100 daily chart remains bullish with the Raff channels heading up and bullish Moving Averages. The bulls just need to break 7226 really!

Have a great weekend and good luck today.

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