Quote from Nick on 12th April 2021, 9:32 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th April 2021

After hitting a fresh, post-pandemic high on Thursday, the FTSE 100 ended the week slightly down while the FTSE 250 has also dipped ever so slightly from its record highs. Friday's price action saw a fairly low-key end to the week, characterised by some light profit taking ahead of the weekend, as the UK gears up for the reopening of non-essential retail stores, and pubs and restaurants outdoors this week.

The World Bank have committed $2bn in financing by the end of April for vaccine purchases, development and manufacturing and is working with more than 40 countries on this effort, according to Axel van Trotsenburg, managing director of operations, reported Reuters.

Taiwan Warning

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned China against encroaching on Taiwan. “It would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change the existing status quo by force,” Blinken said on Sunday, adding that he wouldn’t speculate about possible U.S. responses. He also said China's secrecy had helped to hasten the spread of Covid-19. Turning to Russia, Blinken said troops deployed at the border with Ukraine are at the highest level since the country's invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014, and that he had been in contact with European allies over the matter. Separately, the Biden administration is stepping up scrutiny of China’s plans for a digital yuan.

Steady Start

Asian stocks look poised for a steady start Monday after a third straight weekly Wall Street advance, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell flagging the prospect of stronger growth and hiring. Futures in Japan and Hong Kong were in the green and Australian contracts climbed. The dollar was steady. Key events to watch this week include U.S. banks and financial firms reporting first-quarter earnings, Chinese trade data on Wednesday and Chinese economic growth figures on Friday. Meanwhile, the allure of Asian stocks is fading after beating global peers last year.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks slipped Monday as investors weighed an uneven global recovery from the pandemic against the latest upbeat economic assessment from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The dollar ticked up.

Shares in China and Hong Kong underperformed, even as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. rallied after the imposition of a record antitrust fine removed a regulatory overhang. U.S. equity futures retreated following a third straight week of gains for the S&P 500 Index, with investors bracing for earnings reports this week. European contracts were marginally in the red.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries held Friday’s advance on stronger-than-expected producer-price inflation data and ahead of a heavy week of supply.

While the U.S. recovery is accelerating, risks from rising Covid-19 cases and lagging vaccination levels elsewhere persist. Traders are also concerned that exceptional government spending and central-bank stimulus could drive excessive inflation. U.S. consumer-price data are due Tuesday.

The U.S. economy is at an “inflection point” with stronger growth and hiring ahead thanks to rising vaccinations and powerful policy support, Powell told CBS’s 60 Minutes in an interview aired Sunday. He said any rebound in inflation will be temporary.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

We have dropped off the recent high and the price is sat on the round number support to start with at 6900, however, the S&P has also cooled off a bit and as you know from last weeks emails the RSI levels across the board are a little high. As such, a dip down before the next push may well play out, and as such we could see the FTSE drop down to the 6870 support area, and 4083 on the SP. That may well also tie in with a test of the fib on the Dax at 15124 today. A dip and rise possibly to play out today in that case, similar to the ASX200 action Monday.

The FTSE 100 2 hour chart is bearish now with 6956 resistance and should the bulls manage to push past the pivot at 6932 we may well see a test of this level. It also coincides with R1 so I would expect a reaction here. It is also just below the high from Friday so would be a possible double top area. The key fib for today is just above though at 6972. Above that then 6990 is next up for R2, and then the round number at 7003 though I would be surprised to see it push that high today as it feels like we may well have a more bearish bias today

For the bears the initial support is at the 30m 200ema at 6888 with the S2 and key fib lower down at 6975. The bulls will try to defend this I think, and if so then we may well see a recapture of 6900. If however the bears break 6875 then a slide down towards 6844 and S3 is likely to play out so worth shorting a break of that S2 level.

So looking at a bearish slant on today and a possible dip and consolidation after the recent strength, with that 6875 area looking key support to start with. Short the rallies today by the look of it and a Bull Monday might not materialise today. Good luck.

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