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Bulls on the back foot | 800k job lost since March | 4.9pc unemployment | 6490 6450 support | 6572 6578 resistance

#1 · 15th December 2020, 12:07 pm

Quote from Nick on 15th December 2020, 12:07 pm
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th December 2020
London-listed stocks had a mixed showing, with a surging pound shutting the FTSE 100 out of a moderate rally across European equities.
Sterling rose as much as 1.6pc during the day on hopes for a Brexit deal, its best intraday rise since early October. That piled pressure on blue-chips, with the index trading broadly flat throughout the day.
Amazon.co.uk Widgets
Banks, housebuilders and retailers rose strongly following the news that the UK and EU would continue trade talks. Next was the top riser, climbing 360p to £67.46, while Lloyds, NatWest, JD Sports all also gained ground.
At the opposite end of the scale, AstraZeneca put a heavy drag on the index, dropping 468p to £76.92 after it announced a $39bn acquisition of rare disease specialist Alexion Pharmaceuticals at the weekend.
The FTSE 250 saw clearer-cut gains, with Brexit relief boosting the more domestically-exposed index.
Biden Wins Electoral College
Joe Biden officially clinched the presidency after the Electoral College confirmed his victory Monday, capping a tumultuous period sparked by Donald Trump’s refusal to acknowledge he lost with the help of Republicans willing to support his unsubstantiated claims. The 55 votes from California electors put Biden over the 270 needed to win. Monday’s vote puts pressure on Senate Republicans and others who have refused to recognize Biden’s overwhelming victory to finally acknowledge that Trump lost and Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th president on Jan. 20.
U.S. Vaccinations Begin
The first Covid-19 vaccine shots were administered by U.S. hospitals Monday, the initial step in a historic drive to immunize millions of people as deaths passed 300,000. New York, the original epicenter of the U.S. pandemic, looks headed toward a second full shutdown. European governments are tightening restrictions, while Singapore approved Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine and expects the first shipments by the end of the month, when it also plans to ease curbs. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said the government will suspend its “Go To” domestic travel incentive campaign.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks retreated with European futures Tuesday after a mixed Wall Street session, amid caution over economic risks from virus-related curbs and ongoing U.S. fiscal stimulus talks. The dollar steadied.
A gauge of Asian stocks was set for its worst drop this month as shares fell in South Korea, China and Japan, where the government suspended its nationwide travel campaign amid record coronavirus cases. Australian coal stocks slid on reports China formally banned imports. S&P 500 contracts edged higher after the gauge capped its longest slide since September to trade about 1.5% below its Dec. 8 record. Oil fell and Treasury yields were little changed.
Investor optimism about the start of vaccine shots has given way to concern over whether a stimulus bill from a bipartisan group of lawmakers will gain traction. The virus continued to rage in the U.S., threatening harsher restrictions across the nation. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warned that people should be prepared for a full shutdown. European governments are also tightening measures.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The bulls failed to manage the 6602 level yesterday and we got a slow steady drop down from the 6585 level to test the bottom of the 10 day Raff. That is still just below where we are starting this morning at 6500, and with the S&P defending the first key support at 3640 we may well see a rise and dip play out today. The FTSE 100 2h chart remains bearish with resistance at the 6566 and 6589 levels from the Hull moving average and the coral respectively.
As such, if we see a rise towards this area, and coupled with R1 at 6571 and the key fib at 6578 we may well see a reaction here for a bit of bearishness to kick in later. The S&P bulls will be looking to maintain a defence of the 3640 level, though we have Fridays low at 3630 to keep an eye on also. Virus ramping up with the new strain, along with the UK super spreader event scheduled for the 23-27th December will likely lead to further increased rates in January ready for more areas to move into tier 3. London and the South east moved into that yesterday after the crowds rammed London recently. Will Jan/Feb see the usual wave 3 in the pandemic playbook?
Cable has dropped back a bit as well now, which may well help the FTSE bulls initially today. They will be looking to defend the 6490 level (just below the overnight low) as we have the fib level here and S1 at 6483. If they can hold this on any early test the bulls will need to break the 30min coral (now red) at the 6525 level as that will likely lead to a test of the daily pivot at 6537. The support and resistance levels are bunching up a bit so we could well be coiling for a break up as we head towards the year end. They will need these daily supports to hold, though a test of the 25ema on the daily at 6395 currently and then spring up off that may well still come to pass. we haven't actually tested the 25ema on the daily since the bullish cross on 9th November.
If the bears were to break below the 6480 level then 6449 is S2 and more than likely to be seen as the bears grab control. Will the US give up so easily? 3630 as mentioned may well be defended and we also have the bottom of the 20d Raff channel at 3637 - so it will be interesting to see what the bulls do around here. If it holds then we should be on for a rise back towards 3705+
Above the 6580 level then 6626 is R2 though I am not thinking we will get that high today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th December 2020

London-listed stocks had a mixed showing, with a surging pound shutting the FTSE 100 out of a moderate rally across European equities.
Sterling rose as much as 1.6pc during the day on hopes for a Brexit deal, its best intraday rise since early October. That piled pressure on blue-chips, with the index trading broadly flat throughout the day.
Amazon.co.uk Widgets
Banks, housebuilders and retailers rose strongly following the news that the UK and EU would continue trade talks. Next was the top riser, climbing 360p to £67.46, while Lloyds, NatWest, JD Sports all also gained ground.

At the opposite end of the scale, AstraZeneca put a heavy drag on the index, dropping 468p to £76.92 after it announced a $39bn acquisition of rare disease specialist Alexion Pharmaceuticals at the weekend.

The FTSE 250 saw clearer-cut gains, with Brexit relief boosting the more domestically-exposed index.

Biden Wins Electoral College
Joe Biden officially clinched the presidency after the Electoral College confirmed his victory Monday, capping a tumultuous period sparked by Donald Trump’s refusal to acknowledge he lost with the help of Republicans willing to support his unsubstantiated claims. The 55 votes from California electors put Biden over the 270 needed to win. Monday’s vote puts pressure on Senate Republicans and others who have refused to recognize Biden’s overwhelming victory to finally acknowledge that Trump lost and Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th president on Jan. 20.

U.S. Vaccinations Begin
The first Covid-19 vaccine shots were administered by U.S. hospitals Monday, the initial step in a historic drive to immunize millions of people as deaths passed 300,000. New York, the original epicenter of the U.S. pandemic, looks headed toward a second full shutdown. European governments are tightening restrictions, while Singapore approved Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine and expects the first shipments by the end of the month, when it also plans to ease curbs. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said the government will suspend its “Go To” domestic travel incentive campaign.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks retreated with European futures Tuesday after a mixed Wall Street session, amid caution over economic risks from virus-related curbs and ongoing U.S. fiscal stimulus talks. The dollar steadied.

A gauge of Asian stocks was set for its worst drop this month as shares fell in South Korea, China and Japan, where the government suspended its nationwide travel campaign amid record coronavirus cases. Australian coal stocks slid on reports China formally banned imports. S&P 500 contracts edged higher after the gauge capped its longest slide since September to trade about 1.5% below its Dec. 8 record. Oil fell and Treasury yields were little changed.

Investor optimism about the start of vaccine shots has given way to concern over whether a stimulus bill from a bipartisan group of lawmakers will gain traction. The virus continued to rage in the U.S., threatening harsher restrictions across the nation. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warned that people should be prepared for a full shutdown. European governments are also tightening measures.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The bulls failed to manage the 6602 level yesterday and we got a slow steady drop down from the 6585 level to test the bottom of the 10 day Raff. That is still just below where we are starting this morning at 6500, and with the S&P defending the first key support at 3640 we may well see a rise and dip play out today. The FTSE 100 2h chart remains bearish with resistance at the 6566 and 6589 levels from the Hull moving average and the coral respectively.

As such, if we see a rise towards this area, and coupled with R1 at 6571 and the key fib at 6578 we may well see a reaction here for a bit of bearishness to kick in later. The S&P bulls will be looking to maintain a defence of the 3640 level, though we have Fridays low at 3630 to keep an eye on also. Virus ramping up with the new strain, along with the UK super spreader event scheduled for the 23-27th December will likely lead to further increased rates in January ready for more areas to move into tier 3. London and the South east moved into that yesterday after the crowds rammed London recently. Will Jan/Feb see the usual wave 3 in the pandemic playbook?

Cable has dropped back a bit as well now, which may well help the FTSE bulls initially today. They will be looking to defend the 6490 level (just below the overnight low) as we have the fib level here and S1 at 6483. If they can hold this on any early test the bulls will need to break the 30min coral (now red) at the 6525 level as that will likely lead to a test of the daily pivot at 6537. The support and resistance levels are bunching up a bit so we could well be coiling for a break up as we head towards the year end. They will need these daily supports to hold, though a test of the 25ema on the daily at 6395 currently and then spring up off that may well still come to pass. we haven't actually tested the 25ema on the daily since the bullish cross on 9th November.

If the bears were to break below the 6480 level then 6449 is S2 and more than likely to be seen as the bears grab control. Will the US give up so easily? 3630 as mentioned may well be defended and we also have the bottom of the 20d Raff channel at 3637 - so it will be interesting to see what the bulls do around here. If it holds then we should be on for a rise back towards 3705+

Above the 6580 level then 6626 is R2 though I am not thinking we will get that high today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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