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Bulls need to push past 7540 today for further upside | 7440 support | ECB holds rates | Learning to trade

#1 · 26th July 2019, 9:34 am

Quote from Nick on 26th July 2019, 9:34 am
26th July 2019
The ECB has held interest rates, but says it is prepared to act in the near future
Data from Germany showed business confidence has sagged
The pound sank in an apparent reaction to Boris Johnson’s cabinet cull
Rates were held, but Mario Draghi and his Governing Council companions were happy to tease that something more substantial might be coming. The ECB kept rates in place, refusing to buckle under the pressure of dismal German data....but Draghi is girding up for a big exit: It looks like some form of stimulus package in September is a sure bet, and the ECB plans to use its full toolkit.
No Draghi/Lagarde job swap is coming though. The Italian ruled out a move to the International Monetary Fund, something which may well be music to the ears of Mark Carney.
The FTSE closed down, with the drop off the 7533 area gaining momentum throughout the day and the price slipping below the 7482 support level. However we bounced just above the 7455 level, at a low of 7462. The bulls will be keen to regain the 7500 area this morning for a push back up, though the key levels are 7530 and 7550 that they will need to push above.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
We have retraced back to yesterdays closing price overnight at 7490, and the bulls will be keen to push above this level today to target the 7533 resistance level initially. We have the daily pivot for resistance at 7495 and if the bears are quick out the blocks then we may well see a drop off this down to the 7460 support level. The bulls will be keen to regain ground above 7500 though. Just below the 7460 we have S1 at 7447 and then a key fib at 7440. I am thinking that this area may well hold if seen, and the bulls will certainly be keen to end the week strongly. We also have the US GDP figures out today at 1330 so expect some movement then as that may well tie in with the will they/won't they/when will they rate decisions.
[caption id="attachment_14973" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]
If the bulls manage to break above the 7533 level then 7550 remains as short term resistance and may well see a reaction. Shorts around this 7530/7550 area still look viable in the short term. If we break above 7550 then the top of the 10 day Raff channel is the next likely target at 7592. There is a longer term resistance level on the weekly charts at 7708 as well to bear in mind, so if the bulls can defend these lower supports today then a rise to here is possible, next week though.
As it's Friday is pays to be slightly more cautious. Above the daily pivot we also have the 30min 200ema at 7514 and 2 hour hull moving average at 7515. So see what the reactions at the time at this level as well.
Looking at the chart and that the S&P has bounced of its 2 hour coral support yesterday at 2997 we may well see the bulls regain the upper hand. It doesn't look like it's all doom and gloom just yet, and the ECB hinting at further stimulus if needed should help to underpin the markets as there is a safety net there. Buy the dip today may well be the best play and if we can close the week above the 7500 level we should be on for further upside next week.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

26th July 2019

The ECB has held interest rates, but says it is prepared to act in the near future
Data from Germany showed business confidence has sagged
The pound sank in an apparent reaction to Boris Johnson’s cabinet cull

Rates were held, but Mario Draghi and his Governing Council companions were happy to tease that something more substantial might be coming. The ECB kept rates in place, refusing to buckle under the pressure of dismal German data....but Draghi is girding up for a big exit: It looks like some form of stimulus package in September is a sure bet, and the ECB plans to use its full toolkit.

No Draghi/Lagarde job swap is coming though. The Italian ruled out a move to the International Monetary Fund, something which may well be music to the ears of Mark Carney.

The FTSE closed down, with the drop off the 7533 area gaining momentum throughout the day and the price slipping below the 7482 support level. However we bounced just above the 7455 level, at a low of 7462. The bulls will be keen to regain the 7500 area this morning for a push back up, though the key levels are 7530 and 7550 that they will need to push above.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

We have retraced back to yesterdays closing price overnight at 7490, and the bulls will be keen to push above this level today to target the 7533 resistance level initially. We have the daily pivot for resistance at 7495 and if the bears are quick out the blocks then we may well see a drop off this down to the 7460 support level. The bulls will be keen to regain ground above 7500 though. Just below the 7460 we have S1 at 7447 and then a key fib at 7440. I am thinking that this area may well hold if seen, and the bulls will certainly be keen to end the week strongly. We also have the US GDP figures out today at 1330 so expect some movement then as that may well tie in with the will they/won't they/when will they rate decisions.

[caption id="attachment_14973" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]

If the bulls manage to break above the 7533 level then 7550 remains as short term resistance and may well see a reaction. Shorts around this 7530/7550 area still look viable in the short term. If we break above 7550 then the top of the 10 day Raff channel is the next likely target at 7592. There is a longer term resistance level on the weekly charts at 7708 as well to bear in mind, so if the bulls can defend these lower supports today then a rise to here is possible, next week though.

As it's Friday is pays to be slightly more cautious. Above the daily pivot we also have the 30min 200ema at 7514 and 2 hour hull moving average at 7515. So see what the reactions at the time at this level as well.

Looking at the chart and that the S&P has bounced of its 2 hour coral support yesterday at 2997 we may well see the bulls regain the upper hand. It doesn't look like it's all doom and gloom just yet, and the ECB hinting at further stimulus if needed should help to underpin the markets as there is a safety net there. Buy the dip today may well be the best play and if we can close the week above the 7500 level we should be on for further upside next week.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates