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Bulls need to defend 7600 with 7642 7661 resistance | 7559 support below | Netflix disappoints

#1 · 20th April 2022, 8:44 am

Quote from Nick on 20th April 2022, 8:44 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
UK shares closed lower on Tuesday, weighed by concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. The blue-chip FTSE 100 edged down 0.2pc, while the domestically focused midcap FTSE 250 index declined 0.8pc.
The World Bank on Monday lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 to 3.2pc from 4.1pc, due to the wider impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its outlook later in the day.
Most Asian stocks rose Wednesday and a selloff in Treasuries paused as investors evaluated the economic outlook amid high inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and China’s Covid challenges.
Japan helped an Asia-Pacific equity gauge climb for the first session in four. China wavered after its banks held lending rates, disappointing investors looking for a cut to support an economy sagging under Covid lockdowns.
U.S. equity futures retreated amid an after-hours slump in Netflix Inc. on poor subscriber numbers. That tempered some of the optimism from a rally in the S&P 500 index ahead of the streaming giant’s results.
Treasuries edged up, paring a tumble from Tuesday. But they remain under longer term pressure from hardening expectations of sharp Federal Reserve policy tightening. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said interest rates will probably exceed the neutral level in the campaign to damp price pressures.
The dollar declined and the yen revived after a prolonged slump. The yen remains the weakest performer in the Group of 10 this year on the policy contrast with the U.S.: the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to contain yields, underscoring its desire for loose monetary settings.
New Offensive
Russia has launched what Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hailed as a second phase of the war in Ukraine — and early indications are it could go better for Russia than the first. After a ferocious night of artillery bombardment along a 300-mile (482 km) front line in the east, Russian forces took a pocket of territory including the city of Kreminna. U.S. President Joe Biden held a call with key allies amid efforts to coordinate supplies of heavy weapons to Ukraine, and said he’s ready to provide more artillery. Meanwhile, Lavrov said Russia was committed to avoiding nuclear war, after being quizzed about the possible use of atomic weapons in Ukraine.
Streaming Stumble
Netflix has seen its first drop in subscriber numbers in a decade, losing more than 200,000 viewers globally in the first quarter. The company predicted another 2 million could vanish this quarter. Asia was the lone bright spot and the only region where subscriber numbers rose. Shares, already down more than 40% this year, tumbled as much as 24% in after-hours trading.
Faster Inflation
The International Monetary Fund followed the World Bank in slashing its global growth forecast, by the most since the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic, and projected even faster inflation, after Russia invaded Ukraine and China renewed virus lockdowns. Global expansion will slow to 3.6% in 2022, down from a forecast of 4.4% in January. And things could get even gloomier. Risks include a possible worsening of the war in Ukraine, escalation of sanctions on Russia, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in China, and a renewed flare-up of the Covid pandemic.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th April 2022
A fairly flat day yesterday saw the bulls defend the drop but not really pull away from the 7600 level, with 7623 daily resistance still playing a key role. Today we have the 7645 level looking like it may get tested, but the mood does look a little bit more bearish across the board. As such we could see a rise and dip play out as there are some key resistance levels coming into play across the board - 4470 S&P500, 14260 DAX40 and 7645 FTSE100.
Netflix lost 200k subscribers yesterday as a combination of improving weather in the Northern Hemisphere means less TV watching, plus a bit of trimming of household expenditure. The market wasn't impressed though as the prediction of a further 2m was mentioned.
Above the 7645 level then then bulls would be looking to target the 7680 10d Raff level which also ties in with R2. To be honest that feels a bit of a big ask at the moment, especially for today. That said, the S&P daily resistance at 4455 came into play yesterday and despite the overshoot stopped the rise from the 4380 level. That may well trigger a couple of sessions of downside that could pull the FTSE100 down to test its 25ema at 7535, where I would like to see a bounce.
7535 also ties in with the bottom of the 10d Raff channel, and should the bears break below the 7600 level today I am looking for an initial drop down to the 7560 level (possibly the daily support at 7550) and then ultimately that 7535 level. 7600 is the 200ema on the 30m chart and may well see an initial reaction this morning, as its also the round number.
Generally I am thinking that shorting the rallies today feels like the right play as to start with the charts are looking a bit bearish. The volume is still low due to the holiday period, hence the slightly strange moves this week.
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

UK shares closed lower on Tuesday, weighed by concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. The blue-chip FTSE 100 edged down 0.2pc, while the domestically focused midcap FTSE 250 index declined 0.8pc.

The World Bank on Monday lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 to 3.2pc from 4.1pc, due to the wider impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its outlook later in the day.

Most Asian stocks rose Wednesday and a selloff in Treasuries paused as investors evaluated the economic outlook amid high inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and China’s Covid challenges.

Japan helped an Asia-Pacific equity gauge climb for the first session in four. China wavered after its banks held lending rates, disappointing investors looking for a cut to support an economy sagging under Covid lockdowns.

U.S. equity futures retreated amid an after-hours slump in Netflix Inc. on poor subscriber numbers. That tempered some of the optimism from a rally in the S&P 500 index ahead of the streaming giant’s results.

Treasuries edged up, paring a tumble from Tuesday. But they remain under longer term pressure from hardening expectations of sharp Federal Reserve policy tightening. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said interest rates will probably exceed the neutral level in the campaign to damp price pressures.

The dollar declined and the yen revived after a prolonged slump. The yen remains the weakest performer in the Group of 10 this year on the policy contrast with the U.S.: the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to contain yields, underscoring its desire for loose monetary settings.

New Offensive
Russia has launched what Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hailed as a second phase of the war in Ukraine — and early indications are it could go better for Russia than the first. After a ferocious night of artillery bombardment along a 300-mile (482 km) front line in the east, Russian forces took a pocket of territory including the city of Kreminna. U.S. President Joe Biden held a call with key allies amid efforts to coordinate supplies of heavy weapons to Ukraine, and said he’s ready to provide more artillery. Meanwhile, Lavrov said Russia was committed to avoiding nuclear war, after being quizzed about the possible use of atomic weapons in Ukraine.

Streaming Stumble
Netflix has seen its first drop in subscriber numbers in a decade, losing more than 200,000 viewers globally in the first quarter. The company predicted another 2 million could vanish this quarter. Asia was the lone bright spot and the only region where subscriber numbers rose. Shares, already down more than 40% this year, tumbled as much as 24% in after-hours trading.

Faster Inflation
The International Monetary Fund followed the World Bank in slashing its global growth forecast, by the most since the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic, and projected even faster inflation, after Russia invaded Ukraine and China renewed virus lockdowns. Global expansion will slow to 3.6% in 2022, down from a forecast of 4.4% in January. And things could get even gloomier. Risks include a possible worsening of the war in Ukraine, escalation of sanctions on Russia, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in China, and a renewed flare-up of the Covid pandemic.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th April 2022

A fairly flat day yesterday saw the bulls defend the drop but not really pull away from the 7600 level, with 7623 daily resistance still playing a key role. Today we have the 7645 level looking like it may get tested, but the mood does look a little bit more bearish across the board. As such we could see a rise and dip play out as there are some key resistance levels coming into play across the board - 4470 S&P500, 14260 DAX40 and 7645 FTSE100.

Netflix lost 200k subscribers yesterday as a combination of improving weather in the Northern Hemisphere means less TV watching, plus a bit of trimming of household expenditure. The market wasn't impressed though as the prediction of a further 2m was mentioned.

Above the 7645 level then then bulls would be looking to target the 7680 10d Raff level which also ties in with R2. To be honest that feels a bit of a big ask at the moment, especially for today. That said, the S&P daily resistance at 4455 came into play yesterday and despite the overshoot stopped the rise from the 4380 level. That may well trigger a couple of sessions of downside that could pull the FTSE100 down to test its 25ema at 7535, where I would like to see a bounce.

7535 also ties in with the bottom of the 10d Raff channel, and should the bears break below the 7600 level today I am looking for an initial drop down to the 7560 level (possibly the daily support at 7550) and then ultimately that 7535 level. 7600 is the 200ema on the 30m chart and may well see an initial reaction this morning, as its also the round number.

Generally I am thinking that shorting the rallies today feels like the right play as to start with the charts are looking a bit bearish. The volume is still low due to the holiday period, hence the slightly strange moves this week.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates