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Bulls get a kicking but defend 7015 | 7009 6982 support | 7091 7109 7130 resistance

#1 · 4th June 2021, 10:01 am

Quote from Nick on 4th June 2021, 10:01 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th June 2021
The FTSE 100 closed 0.5pc lower after a moderately poor session yesterday. IAG, owner of British Airways, was the biggest faller as the UK swapped Portugal onto its amber travel list – closing down 5.2pc. Mining companies also fell after strong gains earlier in the week. We did dip and rise across the board but the dip was more substantial - with the Dax, S&P and FTSE all dropping down to their S3 levels. 7016 on the FTSE got a reaction though, while the S&P needs to get back above the 4200 level really to keep the bullish hopes alive.
Growth in the US services sector, where most Americans work, reached an all-time high in May, as people returned to bars, restaurants and other venues across the country.
Today sees the release of the Non Farm Payroll news - forecasted to be 650k versus 266k previously. Following the decent ADP report on Wednesday we may well see that forecast beaten and the drop yesterday was a bit flushing exercise prior to good news..... Unemployment rate is also released and forecast to have dropped to 5.9% from 6.1% previously. 13:30 for both those news releases.
Biden Ban
President Joe Biden signed an order amending a ban on U.S. investment in Chinese companies begun under his predecessor, naming 59 firms with ties to China’s military or in the surveillance industry, including Huawei and the country’s three biggest telecommunications companies, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecommunications Corp. The ban on new investments will take effect Aug. 2 at 12:01 a.m. in New York, according to administration officials. Investors will have one year to fully divest. The list also includes Aviation Industry Corp. of China, which is one of the best known of the Chinese military giants, and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the developer of surveillance cameras and facial-recognition technology that has helped Chinese authorities roll out “safe city” initiatives in Xinjiang, where ethnic Uyghurs have faced persecution.
Asian Session
Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures stabilized Friday after Wall Street sagged amid robust U.S. economic data that stoked concerns about a pullback in central bank stimulus. Treasury yields and the dollar held gains.
Shares pared losses in Japan and turned higher in China and Hong Kong. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed after the gauges fell overnight but came off lows on signs President Joe Biden may be willing to compromise on corporate taxes. Strong U.S. jobs data and record service-sector growth underscored the recovery from the pandemic.
China’s markets weathered Biden’s order amending a ban on U.S. investment in Chinese companies. The order named 59 firms with ties to China’s military or in the surveillance industry, including Huawei Technologies Co.
Gold remained lower after coming under pressure as yields and the dollar pushed higher, while the rally in crude oil has stalled. Meme stocks including AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. had another volatile U.S. session. Bitcoin dipped after a cryptic Elon Musk tweet hinting at a split with the token.[Bloomberg]
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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Wasn't quite expecting a test of S3 across the board. However, the bulls have held on overnight to stay in the game and we may well get a similar pattern today with a dip and rise. Of course an NFP Friday can often be a strange one so keep your guard up!
Support is initially at the 7055 level but better support is at the key fib and S1 level at 7008, just below yesterday low at 7013. A break of 7000 though and we will likely see a slide down to the 6980 level with 6955 below that. That said, I can see the US bulls holding on and trying to build on the rise from the low yesterday for a push back towards the 4215 level where we have R2. Above that then the 4230 is still in play as well, with the top of the 10 day Raff at 4245.
Initial resistance on the FTSE is at 7091 where we have the 2h Hull moving average and the current line in the sand. Above this level then R1 and the key fib are in play at the 7110 area and I am expecting a bit of a reaction here. Should the bulls break above this though then 7138 is next up with the top of the 10 day Raff here (and just above the resistance level that we where looking for yesterday) with R2 at 7178 above that. Might be a big ask to add 100 today but we may - especially if we get a Friday afternoon ramp on the US markets as per usual.
One more high in June still on the cards before a bigger decline I am thinking (seasonal pattern usually) and I suspect that dip yesterday was just stop hunting.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
Recommended Broker

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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th June 2021

The FTSE 100 closed 0.5pc lower after a moderately poor session yesterday. IAG, owner of British Airways, was the biggest faller as the UK swapped Portugal onto its amber travel list – closing down 5.2pc. Mining companies also fell after strong gains earlier in the week. We did dip and rise across the board but the dip was more substantial - with the Dax, S&P and FTSE all dropping down to their S3 levels. 7016 on the FTSE got a reaction though, while the S&P needs to get back above the 4200 level really to keep the bullish hopes alive.

Growth in the US services sector, where most Americans work, reached an all-time high in May, as people returned to bars, restaurants and other venues across the country.

Today sees the release of the Non Farm Payroll news - forecasted to be 650k versus 266k previously. Following the decent ADP report on Wednesday we may well see that forecast beaten and the drop yesterday was a bit flushing exercise prior to good news..... Unemployment rate is also released and forecast to have dropped to 5.9% from 6.1% previously. 13:30 for both those news releases.

Biden Ban

President Joe Biden signed an order amending a ban on U.S. investment in Chinese companies begun under his predecessor, naming 59 firms with ties to China’s military or in the surveillance industry, including Huawei and the country’s three biggest telecommunications companies, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecommunications Corp. The ban on new investments will take effect Aug. 2 at 12:01 a.m. in New York, according to administration officials. Investors will have one year to fully divest. The list also includes Aviation Industry Corp. of China, which is one of the best known of the Chinese military giants, and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the developer of surveillance cameras and facial-recognition technology that has helped Chinese authorities roll out “safe city” initiatives in Xinjiang, where ethnic Uyghurs have faced persecution.

Asian Session

Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures stabilized Friday after Wall Street sagged amid robust U.S. economic data that stoked concerns about a pullback in central bank stimulus. Treasury yields and the dollar held gains.

Shares pared losses in Japan and turned higher in China and Hong Kong. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed after the gauges fell overnight but came off lows on signs President Joe Biden may be willing to compromise on corporate taxes. Strong U.S. jobs data and record service-sector growth underscored the recovery from the pandemic.

China’s markets weathered Biden’s order amending a ban on U.S. investment in Chinese companies. The order named 59 firms with ties to China’s military or in the surveillance industry, including Huawei Technologies Co.

Gold remained lower after coming under pressure as yields and the dollar pushed higher, while the rally in crude oil has stalled. Meme stocks including AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. had another volatile U.S. session. Bitcoin dipped after a cryptic Elon Musk tweet hinting at a split with the token.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Wasn't quite expecting a test of S3 across the board. However, the bulls have held on overnight to stay in the game and we may well get a similar pattern today with a dip and rise. Of course an NFP Friday can often be a strange one so keep your guard up!

Support is initially at the 7055 level but better support is at the key fib and S1 level at 7008, just below yesterday low at 7013. A break of 7000 though and we will likely see a slide down to the 6980 level with 6955 below that. That said, I can see the US bulls holding on and trying to build on the rise from the low yesterday for a push back towards the 4215 level where we have R2. Above that then the 4230 is still in play as well, with the top of the 10 day Raff at 4245.

Initial resistance on the FTSE is at 7091 where we have the 2h Hull moving average and the current line in the sand. Above this level then R1 and the key fib are in play at the 7110 area and I am expecting a bit of a reaction here. Should the bulls break above this though then 7138 is next up with the top of the 10 day Raff here (and just above the resistance level that we where looking for yesterday) with R2 at 7178 above that. Might be a big ask to add 100 today but we may - especially if we get a Friday afternoon ramp on the US markets as per usual.

One more high in June still on the cards before a bigger decline I am thinking (seasonal pattern usually) and I suspect that dip yesterday was just stop hunting.

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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