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Bullish FTSE with 6766 6810 resistance | 6690 6680 6660 support | Renewed optimism

#1 · 9th March 2021, 10:08 am

Quote from Nick on 9th March 2021, 10:08 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 9th March 2021
A wave of renewed optimism around the economic recovery sent shares higher on Monday, with Germany’s Dax recording its sharpest jump since early November. Equities across Europe found their feet in the last hours of trading, as risk appetite and a renewed shift into recovery-focused stocks offset worries about global bond yields. The Dax closed 3.3pc higher. In London, the FTSE 100 lagged behind, but still chalked up gains of 1.3pc, closing at 6,719.13.

Oil, meanwhile, reversed gains that had seen it rise above $70 for the first time in 14 months. An attack on Saudi Arabian oil sites accelerated prices that were already heading up due to US stimulus and ongoing production cuts. Brent surged to $71.38 after Houthi forces launched missiles and drones against a key Saudi Aramco oil facility at the port of Ras Tanura, along with military targets. The Saudi Arabian authorities said there were no casualties or damage, but the incident underscores the ongoing danger in the region following an attack in September 2019 that disrupted supplies.
It came as president Joe Biden got his $1.9 trillion coronavirus recovery stimulus plan through the Senate, further supporting prices that were lifted last week when the Opec+ alliance of oil producing nations agreed to maintain production cuts. They are keen to avoid a repeat of last April when WTI briefly turned negative due to a supply glut as demand crashed, with traders rushing to try and get oil off their hands before storage space ran out.
Meanwhile, sterling continued its recent decline away from the psychologically important $1.40 mark as the US dollar strengthened. The pound was trading at around $1.383 on Monday evening.
Tech Carnage
Asian stocks looked poised for a muted open after a rotation out of growth stocks drove the Nasdaq 100 Index into a technical correction. Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened. The U.S. tech benchmark tumbled almost 3% Tuesday to its lowest close since November, and is now down 11% from an all-time high in February. The retreat in stocks with high valuations offset a rise in financial and materials shares, erasing the S&P 500 Index’s earlier gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high before settling up 1%. Futures pointed to modest gains in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong after Monday’s selloff in Asia. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to just under 1.6% and equivalent real yields also rose. Brent crude briefly traded near $70 a barrel before pulling back. Gold slumped and Bitcoin traded above $51,000.
Different Directions
The U.S. and China are pursuing divergent economic policies in the aftermath of the coronavirus recession in a role reversal from last time the world economy was recovering from a shock. One of the takeaways from the annual National People’s Congress under way in Beijing is a conservative growth goal, with a tighter fiscal-deficit target and restrained monetary settings. That’s a big contrast with Washington, where President Joe Biden is preparing a second major fiscal package after he gets final approval for his $1.9 trillion stimulus. The widening policy divergence is putting strains on exchange rates and could potentially reshape global capital flows.
No Inflation Here
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen dismissed fears that President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief bill is so big that it will cause an inflation problem, as she seeks to push the recovery deeper into the U.S. labor market to address long-standing economic disparities. Yellen called the impact on women and minorities from Covid-19 “absolutely tragic.” She has repeatedly rejected concerns that Biden’s stimulus is excessive given the economy’s signs of recovery, and that run-away inflation could damage the economy.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Nasdaq 100 futures climbed Tuesday after an overnight slump in technology stocks, while buying by Chinese state funds bolstered sentiment and helped Asian shares erase losses. Treasury yields eased.
China’s indexes bounced off lows after state-related funds stepped in to ensure market stability, according to people familiar with the matter. Nasdaq 100 contracts outperformed a rally in U.S. futures. The tech gauge tumbled almost 3% Monday and is now down 11% from a February record. The S&P 500 shed intraday gains as the retreat in high-valuation stocks offset a rise in financial and materials shares.
Elsewhere, the yen weakened beyond 109 per dollar for the first time since June. The 10-year Treasury yield was below 1.6%, with investors watching upcoming auctions to assess the outlook. Asian credit markets slumped as more deals were scrapped on concerns about the spike in rates.
The risks associated with rising bond yields persist, with the U.S. benchmark trading around a 12-month high amid fears that government aid programs could push the economy into overdrive and stoke inflation. Investors are also questioning whether equity valuations have become excessive, especially in speculative tech shares, and are favoring cheaper cyclical stocks.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
As I write this the FTSE 100 has held above the 6700 level overnight as the bulls looks to build on yesterday's gains. Was a decent bull Monday across the board, most notably on the Dax and S&P, the latter of which is looking likely to test the 3900 resistance level soon.
Initially we have support at the daily pivot at 6689 this morning, and we may well see an initial foray below the 6700 level. If the pivot holds then it may well act as a spring board for a rise up to test the 6743 daily resistance level, and also possibly the R1 and fib level at 6766. If it does get to this area then I am thinking that a short here is worth a go.
The daily support of 6618 mentioned yesterday where we had the 25ema held in the end after the bears managed to break below the 6650 support level. The bulls will be keen to build on that rise though and if they can break 6766 then 6810 is R2 and could be seen, though that maybe feels a bit optimistic for today. Cable has dropped off the 140 level still and that has helped to underpin the FTSE, though it is holding steady at the moment at the 13800 area. If that were to start to rise then the FTSE may start to drop.
For the bears they will be looking to break that daily pivot at 6689 as that then opens up a drop down to the 6652 2h coral again, and also S1 at 6645. With the 200ema on the 30m also here then it could hold initially, though a break will swiftly undo the bulls work yesterday and a slide down to the 6550 level will be on the cards, where we have S2 for today.
There might well be a little bit of fuel left in the bulls tank, especially if the S&P tries for the 3900 area, which may well help pull the FTSE up a bit further, and I am keeping an eye on that 6743 to 6766 area as resistance for today. Half expecting a bearish Tuesday though!
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 9th March 2021

A wave of renewed optimism around the economic recovery sent shares higher on Monday, with Germany’s Dax recording its sharpest jump since early November. Equities across Europe found their feet in the last hours of trading, as risk appetite and a renewed shift into recovery-focused stocks offset worries about global bond yields. The Dax closed 3.3pc higher. In London, the FTSE 100 lagged behind, but still chalked up gains of 1.3pc, closing at 6,719.13.

Oil, meanwhile, reversed gains that had seen it rise above $70 for the first time in 14 months. An attack on Saudi Arabian oil sites accelerated prices that were already heading up due to US stimulus and ongoing production cuts. Brent surged to $71.38 after Houthi forces launched missiles and drones against a key Saudi Aramco oil facility at the port of Ras Tanura, along with military targets. The Saudi Arabian authorities said there were no casualties or damage, but the incident underscores the ongoing danger in the region following an attack in September 2019 that disrupted supplies.

It came as president Joe Biden got his $1.9 trillion coronavirus recovery stimulus plan through the Senate, further supporting prices that were lifted last week when the Opec+ alliance of oil producing nations agreed to maintain production cuts. They are keen to avoid a repeat of last April when WTI briefly turned negative due to a supply glut as demand crashed, with traders rushing to try and get oil off their hands before storage space ran out.

Meanwhile, sterling continued its recent decline away from the psychologically important $1.40 mark as the US dollar strengthened. The pound was trading at around $1.383 on Monday evening.

Tech Carnage

Asian stocks looked poised for a muted open after a rotation out of growth stocks drove the Nasdaq 100 Index into a technical correction. Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened. The U.S. tech benchmark tumbled almost 3% Tuesday to its lowest close since November, and is now down 11% from an all-time high in February. The retreat in stocks with high valuations offset a rise in financial and materials shares, erasing the S&P 500 Index’s earlier gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high before settling up 1%. Futures pointed to modest gains in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong after Monday’s selloff in Asia. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to just under 1.6% and equivalent real yields also rose. Brent crude briefly traded near $70 a barrel before pulling back. Gold slumped and Bitcoin traded above $51,000.

Different Directions

The U.S. and China are pursuing divergent economic policies in the aftermath of the coronavirus recession in a role reversal from last time the world economy was recovering from a shock. One of the takeaways from the annual National People’s Congress under way in Beijing is a conservative growth goal, with a tighter fiscal-deficit target and restrained monetary settings. That’s a big contrast with Washington, where President Joe Biden is preparing a second major fiscal package after he gets final approval for his $1.9 trillion stimulus. The widening policy divergence is putting strains on exchange rates and could potentially reshape global capital flows.

No Inflation Here

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen dismissed fears that President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief bill is so big that it will cause an inflation problem, as she seeks to push the recovery deeper into the U.S. labor market to address long-standing economic disparities. Yellen called the impact on women and minorities from Covid-19 “absolutely tragic.” She has repeatedly rejected concerns that Biden’s stimulus is excessive given the economy’s signs of recovery, and that run-away inflation could damage the economy.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Nasdaq 100 futures climbed Tuesday after an overnight slump in technology stocks, while buying by Chinese state funds bolstered sentiment and helped Asian shares erase losses. Treasury yields eased.

China’s indexes bounced off lows after state-related funds stepped in to ensure market stability, according to people familiar with the matter. Nasdaq 100 contracts outperformed a rally in U.S. futures. The tech gauge tumbled almost 3% Monday and is now down 11% from a February record. The S&P 500 shed intraday gains as the retreat in high-valuation stocks offset a rise in financial and materials shares.

Elsewhere, the yen weakened beyond 109 per dollar for the first time since June. The 10-year Treasury yield was below 1.6%, with investors watching upcoming auctions to assess the outlook. Asian credit markets slumped as more deals were scrapped on concerns about the spike in rates.

The risks associated with rising bond yields persist, with the U.S. benchmark trading around a 12-month high amid fears that government aid programs could push the economy into overdrive and stoke inflation. Investors are also questioning whether equity valuations have become excessive, especially in speculative tech shares, and are favoring cheaper cyclical stocks.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

As I write this the FTSE 100 has held above the 6700 level overnight as the bulls looks to build on yesterday's gains. Was a decent bull Monday across the board, most notably on the Dax and S&P, the latter of which is looking likely to test the 3900 resistance level soon.

Initially we have support at the daily pivot at 6689 this morning, and we may well see an initial foray below the 6700 level. If the pivot holds then it may well act as a spring board for a rise up to test the 6743 daily resistance level, and also possibly the R1 and fib level at 6766. If it does get to this area then I am thinking that a short here is worth a go.

The daily support of 6618 mentioned yesterday where we had the 25ema held in the end after the bears managed to break below the 6650 support level. The bulls will be keen to build on that rise though and if they can break 6766 then 6810 is R2 and could be seen, though that maybe feels a bit optimistic for today. Cable has dropped off the 140 level still and that has helped to underpin the FTSE, though it is holding steady at the moment at the 13800 area. If that were to start to rise then the FTSE may start to drop.

For the bears they will be looking to break that daily pivot at 6689 as that then opens up a drop down to the 6652 2h coral again, and also S1 at 6645. With the 200ema on the 30m also here then it could hold initially, though a break will swiftly undo the bulls work yesterday and a slide down to the 6550 level will be on the cards, where we have S2 for today.

There might well be a little bit of fuel left in the bulls tank, especially if the S&P tries for the 3900 area, which may well help pull the FTSE up a bit further, and I am keeping an eye on that 6743 to 6766 area as resistance for today. Half expecting a bearish Tuesday though!

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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