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Bull start strongly with 7630 7665 resistance | 7533 7507 support | ECB rate rises loom

#1 · 4th January 2023, 9:52 am

Quote from Nick on 4th January 2023, 9:52 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th January 2023
The export-orientated FTSE 100 enjoyed a strong opening day of the year, up 1.5pc, helped by the pound falling against the dollar, although sterling pared back losses to be down 0.1pc to just over £1.20. The S&P 500 gave up an early gain and was down 0.3pc while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1pc to 33,106.71. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6pc.
Well the bulls took control yesterday and managed to bust the 7600 level, albeit short lived. That has set the 2h bullish though to start with today and decent support to start with at the 7525 area from the Hull MA, along with a now green 2h coral at 7506. Both the Raff channels are now heading up (was only the 10d yesterday) and have resistance at the 7630 (10d) and 7665 (20d). We may well see a test of both of these levels today.
The ASX200 had a fairly positive day today as well, and we should follow suit, especially ahead of US employment data out on Friday. A weakening jobs market is seen as one of the key pieces needed to convince the Fed to begin slowing its monetary tightening path. We also approach another round of likely rate increases in February and March from the ECB.
7603 is the key fib to start with this morning as well so that is the first line in the sand for the bulls to break, and as its close to the round number, we could well see a stutter here. That said, with R1 at 7654 and splitting the Raff channels I am favouring this area to be stronger resistance today, and would like to see a drop off from here.
Support wise, then the 7533 is the first key one with the daily pivot here and weekly R1 resistance becoming support now that we have broken above that. Should the bears go for it though then we also have the 200ema 30min at 7513, with the key fib at 7486 below that. We are a fair distance above S1 which is at the 7440 level for today. Will we drop that low? Not too sure, though with the volatility yesterday we could see some swings still.
Generally though it looks like we might well see a bit more of a push up. Gold is coming into resistance at the 1860 area, and that rise may well have been front running the S&P drop yesterday. If gold stalls we may well see the S&P bounce back and hold the 3800 level as support. The FTSE100 didn't follow the S&P down yesterday so fully expecting the S&P to climb back. If it does then that should help push the FTSE100 higher - by default if it didn't follow it down then it is more than likely to follow it up instead!
So, still slightly cautious in terms of risk after the break, but have a bullish bias for today. Good luck!
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th January 2023

The export-orientated FTSE 100 enjoyed a strong opening day of the year, up 1.5pc, helped by the pound falling against the dollar, although sterling pared back losses to be down 0.1pc to just over £1.20. The S&P 500 gave up an early gain and was down 0.3pc while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1pc to 33,106.71. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6pc.

Well the bulls took control yesterday and managed to bust the 7600 level, albeit short lived. That has set the 2h bullish though to start with today and decent support to start with at the 7525 area from the Hull MA, along with a now green 2h coral at 7506. Both the Raff channels are now heading up (was only the 10d yesterday) and have resistance at the 7630 (10d) and 7665 (20d). We may well see a test of both of these levels today.

The ASX200 had a fairly positive day today as well, and we should follow suit, especially ahead of US employment data out on Friday. A weakening jobs market is seen as one of the key pieces needed to convince the Fed to begin slowing its monetary tightening path. We also approach another round of likely rate increases in February and March from the ECB.

7603 is the key fib to start with this morning as well so that is the first line in the sand for the bulls to break, and as its close to the round number, we could well see a stutter here. That said, with R1 at 7654 and splitting the Raff channels I am favouring this area to be stronger resistance today, and would like to see a drop off from here.

Support wise, then the 7533 is the first key one with the daily pivot here and weekly R1 resistance becoming support now that we have broken above that. Should the bears go for it though then we also have the 200ema 30min at 7513, with the key fib at 7486 below that. We are a fair distance above S1 which is at the 7440 level for today. Will we drop that low? Not too sure, though with the volatility yesterday we could see some swings still.

Generally though it looks like we might well see a bit more of a push up. Gold is coming into resistance at the 1860 area, and that rise may well have been front running the S&P drop yesterday. If gold stalls we may well see the S&P bounce back and hold the 3800 level as support. The FTSE100 didn't follow the S&P down yesterday so fully expecting the S&P to climb back. If it does then that should help push the FTSE100 higher - by default if it didn't follow it down then it is more than likely to follow it up instead!

So, still slightly cautious in terms of risk after the break, but have a bullish bias for today. Good luck!

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates