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Bull Monday with 7784 7806 7820 resistance | 7752 7731 7680 support | Lots of Fed speakers

#1 · 15th May 2023, 8:53 am

Quote from Nick on 15th May 2023, 8:53 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th May 2023
Asian stocks started the week on a cautious note as investors braced for the release of China's industrial and retail data, while awaiting a host of U.S. Federal Reserve officials to speak to vindicate market pricing of rate cuts this year.
Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures eased 0.1% in early trade, following a report on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to a six-month low in May and long-term inflation expectations jumped to the highest since 2011, boosting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
Also this week, a host of Federal Reserve officials are speaking, with Chair Jerome Powell set for Friday, and could generate plenty of headlines to move the dial further. Markets are still seeing this is the peak for Fed funds rates and pricing in 70 basis points in cuts by the end of this year, after the CPI and PPI data last week supported the case of Fed pausing given the slowing inflation. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday that the U.S. central bank probably will need to raise interest rates further if inflation stays high.
A decent bounce on Friday saw the bulls fight back from the 7735 level, and further build on the rise from Thursday's low at 7680. That remains the line in the sand now and the level that the bulls will need to defend this week.
For today, an initial rise to the next daily resistance level at 7784 would make sense, before a drop back to test the support at 7752. With the daily pivot here and also the 30m coral and 30m 200ema, we should see this hold for a bounce back to set up a decent bull Monday.
The daily chart however might well throw a spanner in the works, as we have the 25ema at 7783 - and as such this is that key area that the bulls need to break. The first test of this EMA may well see a reaction, but if the S&P500 can be bullish today then it may well help drag the FTSE100 up towards 7820 as well.
Above the 7785 then the bulls will be aiming for 7806 R3 but also possibly the next daily resistance level at 7820. Should we get that high today then a short here looks to be worth a go.
For the bears, a break of 7752 would likely see a drop down to the 7731 S1 level, but also possibly as low at the key 7680 level. That seems a bit pessimistic for today, and we do have S2 & S3 above that to act as support first. It's also worth noting that the Raff channels are both heading down now as there is a bit of "sell in May" sentiment kicking in.
Do keep an eye on the 7785 area for some swing shorts to enter though....
So sort of expecting a bit of a bull Monday but we are also coming into some key resistance levels at 7785 and 7822. It will really be up to the S&P500 io help pull things up, and if it can shake off debt ceiling worries, and various Fed members talking too.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th May 2023

Asian stocks started the week on a cautious note as investors braced for the release of China's industrial and retail data, while awaiting a host of U.S. Federal Reserve officials to speak to vindicate market pricing of rate cuts this year.

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures eased 0.1% in early trade, following a report on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to a six-month low in May and long-term inflation expectations jumped to the highest since 2011, boosting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

Also this week, a host of Federal Reserve officials are speaking, with Chair Jerome Powell set for Friday, and could generate plenty of headlines to move the dial further. Markets are still seeing this is the peak for Fed funds rates and pricing in 70 basis points in cuts by the end of this year, after the CPI and PPI data last week supported the case of Fed pausing given the slowing inflation. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday that the U.S. central bank probably will need to raise interest rates further if inflation stays high.

A decent bounce on Friday saw the bulls fight back from the 7735 level, and further build on the rise from Thursday's low at 7680. That remains the line in the sand now and the level that the bulls will need to defend this week.

For today, an initial rise to the next daily resistance level at 7784 would make sense, before a drop back to test the support at 7752. With the daily pivot here and also the 30m coral and 30m 200ema, we should see this hold for a bounce back to set up a decent bull Monday.

The daily chart however might well throw a spanner in the works, as we have the 25ema at 7783 - and as such this is that key area that the bulls need to break. The first test of this EMA may well see a reaction, but if the S&P500 can be bullish today then it may well help drag the FTSE100 up towards 7820 as well.

Above the 7785 then the bulls will be aiming for 7806 R3 but also possibly the next daily resistance level at 7820. Should we get that high today then a short here looks to be worth a go.

For the bears, a break of 7752 would likely see a drop down to the 7731 S1 level, but also possibly as low at the key 7680 level. That seems a bit pessimistic for today, and we do have S2 & S3 above that to act as support first. It's also worth noting that the Raff channels are both heading down now as there is a bit of "sell in May" sentiment kicking in.

Do keep an eye on the 7785 area for some swing shorts to enter though....

So sort of expecting a bit of a bull Monday but we are also coming into some key resistance levels at 7785 and 7822. It will really be up to the S&P500 io help pull things up, and if it can shake off debt ceiling worries, and various Fed members talking too.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates