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Bull Monday if 7575 holds | 7630 7670 resistance | 7600 7575 7510 support | Vote of no confidence

#1 · 6th June 2022, 9:54 am

Quote from Nick on 6th June 2022, 9:54 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Stocks in Asia and US futures rose Monday as Beijing reopened further, helping soothe a fragile mood as inflation and rate hike concerns weigh. Oil gained.
Japan equities erased losses, while technology shares jumped in Hong Kong. China advanced with the capital walking back Covid-19 restrictions. Australian stocks fell, bucking the trend, ahead of an expected second consecutive interest-rate increase Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose.
Treasury yields stabilized. Strong US hiring data for May suggested that the Federal Reserve won’t waver from its pace of steep interest-rate hikes to rein in price pressures. The next focus is consumer prices due this week, which can help gauge whether inflation has peaked. A dollar gauge was steady.
Crude oil traded near $120 a barrel as shortage worries persist. Saudi Arabia raised prices for its biggest market of Asia by more than expected, and the US was considering allowing more sanctioned Iranian oil onto global markets to counter the drop in Russian supplies. Copper hit the highest since April on China’s easing of virus measures.
The US jobs report quelled some concern that the economy is slowing too sharply, but also strengthened the view that the Fed will keep hiking rates to tamp down on rising inflation. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would back a half-point hike in September if inflation is not retreating. Market-derived odds for a third 50-basis-point increase in September held steady near 85%.
The European Central Bank will this week announce an end to bond purchases and formally begin the countdown to an increase in borrowing costs in July, joining global peers tightening monetary policy in the face of hot inflation.
Lifting Tariffs?
President Joe Biden’s commerce chief said it “may make sense” to lift tariffs on some goods as a way to tame the hottest inflation in almost four decades. Gina Raimondo said while steel and aluminum tariffs would stay to protect the US steel industry, the administration was looking at the possibility of lifting duties on other goods, imposed by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, as the US prepares to ban all goods from the remote Chinese region of Xinjiang over human rights abuses, Xi Jinping is moving to rebrand the region and better integrate it with the rest of China — and the world.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 6th June 2022
So, here we go after the extended weekend and will we see a bull Monday? Futures are up and back around the 7600 level after a more optimistic Asian session today, though the Boris Johnson no-confidence roadshow rumbles on in the background. Even subjected to a Lee Mack dig at the Palace concert! You know you're probably finished as a leader when everyones laughing at you.....
Anyway, initial resistance this morning is at the 7620 level once again with the R2 and key fib level in this area so we could see an initial rise to this level and then a slide down to the key support at the 7575 level. The bulls will be keen to hold this though, and should they manage to push on today above the 7625 level then we should see a rise towards the next key resistance at the 7670 area. 7575 is the 30m coral, 30m 200ema and also the Hull MA on the 2h, so a decent cluster of supports in this area.
The Raff channels continue to head up, even after the FTSE100 having had Thursday and Friday "off", despite the S&P being quite bearish at the back end of last week.
The S&P chart certainly looks more bearish than the FTSE100 at the moment, and the bulls will be keen to defend any drops down towards the 4100 level today. If they do so then that should pull the FTSE100 up with it later on. The bulls will need to break the 4150 2h resistance level though as we have the Hull MA here.
Back to the FTSE100 and the bears will be looking to break 7575 as that will lead to the 7540 S1 level and possibly as low at 7510 where we have the bottom of the 10d Raff channel and also finally a test of the 25ema on the daily. The daily coral has also gone green for the first time in a while showing a bullish trend, and support from that is at 7478. Any dip down towards that 7500 level should therefore, in theory, hold.
Above 7670 and the bulls should manage the 7700 level though I am not expecting us to get that high today. As mentioned last week, the daily chart is showing some decent swing long support at the 7500 area and with JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon preaching some doom and gloom last week we should see some more upside (JPM probably going long like mad behind the scenes!). Worth remembering that as a general rule of thumb the market looks 3-6 months ahead ahead, so today's prices reflect where we will be then. The dip in early March to 6800 therefore reflecting where we are today.
So, looking for a slightly bullish Monday overall, with any dip getting bought up. The S&P500 really needs to defend the 4100 level to keep the bulls in the game.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Stocks in Asia and US futures rose Monday as Beijing reopened further, helping soothe a fragile mood as inflation and rate hike concerns weigh. Oil gained.

Japan equities erased losses, while technology shares jumped in Hong Kong. China advanced with the capital walking back Covid-19 restrictions. Australian stocks fell, bucking the trend, ahead of an expected second consecutive interest-rate increase Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose.

Treasury yields stabilized. Strong US hiring data for May suggested that the Federal Reserve won’t waver from its pace of steep interest-rate hikes to rein in price pressures. The next focus is consumer prices due this week, which can help gauge whether inflation has peaked. A dollar gauge was steady.

Crude oil traded near $120 a barrel as shortage worries persist. Saudi Arabia raised prices for its biggest market of Asia by more than expected, and the US was considering allowing more sanctioned Iranian oil onto global markets to counter the drop in Russian supplies. Copper hit the highest since April on China’s easing of virus measures.

The US jobs report quelled some concern that the economy is slowing too sharply, but also strengthened the view that the Fed will keep hiking rates to tamp down on rising inflation. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would back a half-point hike in September if inflation is not retreating. Market-derived odds for a third 50-basis-point increase in September held steady near 85%.

The European Central Bank will this week announce an end to bond purchases and formally begin the countdown to an increase in borrowing costs in July, joining global peers tightening monetary policy in the face of hot inflation.

Lifting Tariffs?
President Joe Biden’s commerce chief said it “may make sense” to lift tariffs on some goods as a way to tame the hottest inflation in almost four decades. Gina Raimondo said while steel and aluminum tariffs would stay to protect the US steel industry, the administration was looking at the possibility of lifting duties on other goods, imposed by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, as the US prepares to ban all goods from the remote Chinese region of Xinjiang over human rights abuses, Xi Jinping is moving to rebrand the region and better integrate it with the rest of China — and the world.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 6th June 2022

So, here we go after the extended weekend and will we see a bull Monday? Futures are up and back around the 7600 level after a more optimistic Asian session today, though the Boris Johnson no-confidence roadshow rumbles on in the background. Even subjected to a Lee Mack dig at the Palace concert! You know you're probably finished as a leader when everyones laughing at you.....

Anyway, initial resistance this morning is at the 7620 level once again with the R2 and key fib level in this area so we could see an initial rise to this level and then a slide down to the key support at the 7575 level. The bulls will be keen to hold this though, and should they manage to push on today above the 7625 level then we should see a rise towards the next key resistance at the 7670 area. 7575 is the 30m coral, 30m 200ema and also the Hull MA on the 2h, so a decent cluster of supports in this area.

The Raff channels continue to head up, even after the FTSE100 having had Thursday and Friday "off", despite the S&P being quite bearish at the back end of last week.

The S&P chart certainly looks more bearish than the FTSE100 at the moment, and the bulls will be keen to defend any drops down towards the 4100 level today. If they do so then that should pull the FTSE100 up with it later on. The bulls will need to break the 4150 2h resistance level though as we have the Hull MA here.

Back to the FTSE100 and the bears will be looking to break 7575 as that will lead to the 7540 S1 level and possibly as low at 7510 where we have the bottom of the 10d Raff channel and also finally a test of the 25ema on the daily. The daily coral has also gone green for the first time in a while showing a bullish trend, and support from that is at 7478. Any dip down towards that 7500 level should therefore, in theory, hold.

Above 7670 and the bulls should manage the 7700 level though I am not expecting us to get that high today. As mentioned last week, the daily chart is showing some decent swing long support at the 7500 area and with JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon preaching some doom and gloom last week we should see some more upside (JPM probably going long like mad behind the scenes!). Worth remembering that as a general rule of thumb the market looks 3-6 months ahead ahead, so today's prices reflect where we will be then. The dip in early March to 6800 therefore reflecting where we are today.

So, looking for a slightly bullish Monday overall, with any dip getting bought up. The S&P500 really needs to defend the 4100 level to keep the bulls in the game.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates