Quote from Nick on 30th November 2020, 10:03 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 30th November 2020

Global stocks are heading for their best month on record after a string of vaccine successes and Joe Biden’s electoral victory. MSCI’s broadest index of global stocks across developed and emerging markets is up around 13pc so far this month, and near the record highs touched in the wake of the US presidential election at the start of the month.

After a sharp multi-day surge once it became clear Mr Biden had secured victory, stocks pared back slightly in the second week of the month, but have gradually climbed back after a series of breakthroughs on treatments for Covid-19. The subsequent second part of the rally has been marked by a rotation into 2020’s neglected stocks, particularly companies in the travel sector that have been devastated by the pandemic.

In a sign of the risk-on mood that has taken hold of investors, Bloomberg’s dollar spot index – a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major global currencies – hit a two-and-a-half year low on Friday afternoon. The currency tends to weaken when investors are seeking riskier assets.

Oil prices have rallied alongside global stocks as the world caught a glimpse of a life beyond the virus.

It was a broadly muted Dayton Friday across London’s stocks, with the FTSE 100 pulling out of early losses to close largely flat. The FTSE 250 dropped heavily as investors reacted to England’s tough new tier regime for restricting the spread of Covid-19.

Oil Talks Snag

A panel of OPEC+ ministers couldn’t reach an agreement on whether to delay January’s oil-output increase, leaving the matter unresolved before a full meeting of the cartel and its allies on Monday. Most participants in an informal online discussion on Sunday evening supported maintaining the production curbs at current levels into the first quarter, said a delegate. Yet while Russia spoke in favor of postponing the supply hike that’s currently scheduled to happen in the new year, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan were opposed. Unless the agreement is revised this week, they will restart about 1.9 million barrels a day of halted output, potentially pushing the global market back into surplus and undermining the recent surge in crude prices.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Stocks in Asia swung from gains to losses along with U.S. and European equity futures as investors monitored progress on the path to a coronavirus vaccine on the final day of a record month for global equities. Oil retreated.

S&P 500 futures began the trading week higher, then slipped, as did Australian and Japanese shares. A gauge of the dollar extended its recent retreat to the lowest level since April 2018. Chinese equities outperformed as activity in the country’s manufacturing sector picked up faster than expected in November and the central bank unexpectedly injected funds into the financial system. Oil retreated after an OPEC+ agreement to postpone an output increase planned for January remained elusive before a meeting Monday. Gold dropped.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Month end today so we may well see some consolidation/profit taking as we possibly coil for another leg up. The S&P certainly looks like its playing that game, and has dropped off the 2 hour resistance at 3645 fairly convincingly since Friday. The bulls will be keen to hold the 3600 level, and even more so S3 at 3594 today, to act as a spring board for buying into December.

For the FTSE, we held the Raff channel at 6300 on Friday but despite a 120 point bounce, have dropped off again. Profit taking, vaccine concerns, and a drop in oil weighing on the futures. Initial support today is at the key fib level at 6320, and we may well see an initial climb off that towards the cluster of resistance levels at the 6375 area. With the daily pivot, 200ema and 2hr Hull moving average here, then we could well see the bears appear here again. If so then a drop back down to the 6300 level may well play out.

Above the 6375 level then Fridays high is the next resistance level at 6416 and then R1 at 6454. I am not convinced that we will climb that high today though.

For support, as mentioned initially we have the 6320 then 6300 levels. Below that then the 6267 level is up from the daily chart and the 20 day Raff channel bottom, just above R2 at 6360. Below that then the 200ema on the daily at 6219 and also crucially the 25ema at 6212 is next up, and should we get that low anytime soon, we are in some swing long support territory and maybe well see a decent bounce from here as we head towards year end. The S&P will be keen to break above the 3650 level  and a rise to 3700 may well play out on that over the rest fo this year.

Looking at a rise and dip scenario to play out today, 6375, 6416, 6454 as resistance. 6320, 6300 and 6265 as support. Good luck today.

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