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Brexit no deal vote lost by 23 votes | 6910 6950 resistance | 6830 support | Learning to trade | Analysis

#1 · 30th January 2019, 11:11 am

Quote from Nick on 30th January 2019, 11:11 am
30th January 2019
Sterling tried to find its footing yesterday after suffering its biggest drop this year on fresh concerns about the possibility of a "no-deal" Brexit. The pound was knocked back versus its rivals after Yvette Cooper's amendment to prevent a no deal Brexit lost by 23 votes in the House of Commons.
It extended its losses on currency markets after the EU ruled out renegotiating the Brexit deal just moments after Sir Graham Brady's amendment won the support of MPs. The Conservative MP's proposal gave the prime minister a mandate to return to Brussels and seek a replacement to the backstop. Sterling's rally in 2019 has been fuelled by hopes of MPs stopping a disorderly departure from the EU but it pulled back as MPs voted down attempts to wrest control of the Brexit process from the Government.
The pound dropped as much as 0.8pc versus the euro, tumbling to €1.1421, and slid 0.8pc versus the dollar to $1.3048. It later staggered up 0.2 percent to $1.3091.
Business groups aired their frustration after the House of Commons failed to take no deal off the table. The Confederation of British Industry said the Brady amendment feels like a "throw of the dice" and called the result "another deeply frustrating day for British business". The British Chambers of Commerce said MPs "are still going round in circles when businesses and the public urgently need answers" while the Institute of Directors warned that the "path ahead is still far from clear".
Trade Talks
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that if China presents enough trade concessions to President Donald Trump, there’s a chance the administration may lift all tariffs. “Everything is on the table,” Mnuchin said early Tuesday during an interview on Fox Business Network. The Treasury chief is set to meet with top Chinese officials in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday alongside U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer about a month before the U.S. is set to escalate its trade war with China with fresh tariffs. Trump and China’s Xi Jinping gave their officials until March 1 to work out a deal on “structural changes” to China’s economic model. If they fail, Trump has promised to raise the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent. The collapse of talks would dash hopes of a lasting truce that would remove one of the darkest clouds hanging over the world economy.
Asian stocks have traded indecisively so far Wednesday following better than expected Apple results and ahead of US-China trade talks. Equity markets swung as dealers look ahead to the end of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting later in the day, with hopes for some guidance on its plans for interest rates this year. We also have Microsoft results later today.
Sterling Slide
Apple’s results came after U.S. shares edged lower Tuesday. Tech stocks dragged the S&P 500 Index down, with Twitter, Facebook and chipmakers leading losses. Industrial companies fared better as 3M Co. struck an optimistic tone and reported profit that beat estimates. Treasuries edged higher with the dollar. Crude rose as the U.S. put a de facto ban on Venezuelan oil. The British pound weakened after after U.K. lawmakers rejected a proposal to delay the country’s exit from the European Union. Still, the currency held above its 200-day moving average against the dollar on optimism that Theresa May will be able to avoid a no-deal Brexit as she heads back to Brussels seeking to renegotiate the accord.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
Sterlings drop yesterday helped to underpin the FTSE 100 bulls and while the S&P dropped off that 2650 resistance level the FTSE 100 managed a climb through the 6835 level to see a high of 6882 overnight. It has dropped back a little bit since, however it remains looking bullish with decent looking support at the daily pivot and 200ema on the 30min chart at 6830. If we see an initial drop back to this level it may well act as a springboard (previous resistance now turning to support) for a push towards that key 6910 level. We also have the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 6920 for now, so the bulls might see some resistance in this range if we were to push up today.
Should the bulls break the 6910 level then we should see some more positivity creep in and the next resistance levels of note are at 6943 and then 6991.
[caption id="attachment_14545" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]
If the bears break the 6930 level (we also have yesterdays close at 6933) then they will be keen to push down towards the 6788 fib level. We then also have the 2 hour support in play at 6784 and this area may well hold as support. There will have been a fair few bears squeezed yesterday as that break of 6800 was looking likely to lead to 6700 or lower, so a dip below 6800 might see them cut and run and then an associated rise. I have put a long off this 2 hour support however I am not sure that we will get that low today.
With that rise yesterday the daily chart is looking more positive again, again with support at the 6840 level so if we do get a dip down to this level then it lends weight to buying the dip.
The Fed later with rates at 7pm then the press conference at 19:30 which everyone will be watching for future rate guidance. This, along with Microsoft results are likely to lead to further choppiness. We also have US GDP at 1330, forecasted at 2.6% versus 3.4% previously.
So, still feeling fairly positive as per yesterday looking for that rise to 6910 or higher.
Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

30th January 2019

Sterling tried to find its footing yesterday after suffering its biggest drop this year on fresh concerns about the possibility of a "no-deal" Brexit. The pound was knocked back versus its rivals after Yvette Cooper's amendment to prevent a no deal Brexit lost by 23 votes in the House of Commons.

It extended its losses on currency markets after the EU ruled out renegotiating the Brexit deal just moments after Sir Graham Brady's amendment won the support of MPs. The Conservative MP's proposal gave the prime minister a mandate to return to Brussels and seek a replacement to the backstop. Sterling's rally in 2019 has been fuelled by hopes of MPs stopping a disorderly departure from the EU but it pulled back as MPs voted down attempts to wrest control of the Brexit process from the Government.

The pound dropped as much as 0.8pc versus the euro, tumbling to €1.1421, and slid 0.8pc versus the dollar to $1.3048. It later staggered up 0.2 percent to $1.3091.

Business groups aired their frustration after the House of Commons failed to take no deal off the table. The Confederation of British Industry said the Brady amendment feels like a "throw of the dice" and called the result "another deeply frustrating day for British business". The British Chambers of Commerce said MPs "are still going round in circles when businesses and the public urgently need answers" while the Institute of Directors warned that the "path ahead is still far from clear".

Trade Talks

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that if China presents enough trade concessions to President Donald Trump, there’s a chance the administration may lift all tariffs. “Everything is on the table,” Mnuchin said early Tuesday during an interview on Fox Business Network. The Treasury chief is set to meet with top Chinese officials in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday alongside U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer about a month before the U.S. is set to escalate its trade war with China with fresh tariffs. Trump and China’s Xi Jinping gave their officials until March 1 to work out a deal on “structural changes” to China’s economic model. If they fail, Trump has promised to raise the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent. The collapse of talks would dash hopes of a lasting truce that would remove one of the darkest clouds hanging over the world economy.

Asian stocks have traded indecisively so far Wednesday following better than expected Apple results and ahead of US-China trade talks. Equity markets swung as dealers look ahead to the end of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting later in the day, with hopes for some guidance on its plans for interest rates this year. We also have Microsoft results later today.

Sterling Slide

Apple’s results came after U.S. shares edged lower Tuesday. Tech stocks dragged the S&P 500 Index down, with Twitter, Facebook and chipmakers leading losses. Industrial companies fared better as 3M Co. struck an optimistic tone and reported profit that beat estimates. Treasuries edged higher with the dollar. Crude rose as the U.S. put a de facto ban on Venezuelan oil. The British pound weakened after after U.K. lawmakers rejected a proposal to delay the country’s exit from the European Union. Still, the currency held above its 200-day moving average against the dollar on optimism that Theresa May will be able to avoid a no-deal Brexit as she heads back to Brussels seeking to renegotiate the accord.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

Sterlings drop yesterday helped to underpin the FTSE 100 bulls and while the S&P dropped off that 2650 resistance level the FTSE 100 managed a climb through the 6835 level to see a high of 6882 overnight. It has dropped back a little bit since, however it remains looking bullish with decent looking support at the daily pivot and 200ema on the 30min chart at 6830. If we see an initial drop back to this level it may well act as a springboard (previous resistance now turning to support) for a push towards that key 6910 level. We also have the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 6920 for now, so the bulls might see some resistance in this range if we were to push up today.

Should the bulls break the 6910 level then we should see some more positivity creep in and the next resistance levels of note are at 6943 and then 6991.

[caption id="attachment_14545" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]

If the bears break the 6930 level (we also have yesterdays close at 6933) then they will be keen to push down towards the 6788 fib level. We then also have the 2 hour support in play at 6784 and this area may well hold as support. There will have been a fair few bears squeezed yesterday as that break of 6800 was looking likely to lead to 6700 or lower, so a dip below 6800 might see them cut and run and then an associated rise. I have put a long off this 2 hour support however I am not sure that we will get that low today.

With that rise yesterday the daily chart is looking more positive again, again with support at the 6840 level so if we do get a dip down to this level then it lends weight to buying the dip.

The Fed later with rates at 7pm then the press conference at 19:30 which everyone will be watching for future rate guidance. This, along with Microsoft results are likely to lead to further choppiness. We also have US GDP at 1330, forecasted at 2.6% versus 3.4% previously.

So, still feeling fairly positive as per yesterday looking for that rise to 6910 or higher.

Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates