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Bounce today with 7500 support | 7464 below | 7610 7640 7715 resistance | US Inflation data

#1 · 14th March 2023, 10:31 am

Quote from Nick on 14th March 2023, 10:31 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th March 2023
Asia's share markets slid on Tuesday, with financial stocks in Tokyo leading losses as fear of a U.S. banking crisis had investors fleeing the sector and slashing the interest rate outlook even ahead of U.S. inflation data due later in the day.
The crisis has seen traders alter their outlook for interest rates, with many betting the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at all at their meeting next week in an attempt to ease pressure on the banking sector.
Mr Biden said investors would lose their money following their collapses in the last few days, adding that they took a risk and "that's how capitalism works". He insisted "no losses will be borne by the taxpayers" and called on Congress and regulators to "strengthen rules" on banks after the failures.
Well that was quite the drop off the 7740 backtest level yesterday as fear rules the roost for the moment as the bankers have messed up once again. Initially today we have decent support at the 7520 level as mentioned yesterday with the daily 200ema here. I would like to see this hold, though we could get an overshoot down to the 7500 level where we have the bottom of the 10d Raff channel. The 20d Raff channel is just above this too. Can these hold a test today?
Below the 7500 level then the bears will keep the momentum going as they seize their moment. The various platitudes from POTUS, Fed etc are failing to really calm anything, and even HSBC buying SVB UK for a quid hasn't really had any effect (though they are of course pumping £2bn in in reality). The next level to be tested would be S1 at 7464, and the slide will just continue really below that.... 7383 for S2.
Be very cautious with longs, if they start to bounce then you can always add to your stake of course. The momentum is still firmly down for the time being. That said, we did get a decent bounce on the S&P500 yesterday from the 3810 level, and if they can defend 3855 today we may well see some optimism creep back in. The doom and gloom and massive fear usually lasts for a few days before the brave bulls start dipping their toes back in to buy the dip!
Shorting the rallies last week was certainly the right call! Those calls for 8200 that we could hear being shouted were well off the mark, as per usual. We will have the reverse shortly with calls for 7000 and that will be the time to get long!
For the resistance levels to keep an eye on today, the first main one is the daily pivot at 7610 and I can potentially see a rise to this maybe first thing if this climb off the first test of 7520 continues. Above 7610 then 7720 is the 30m 200ema and the next main area I would be looking at. That is also just above R1 at 7692 for today.
We are still due a test of the daily 25ema at 7830 since that daily chart went bearish last week and this 25ema can be a decent swing trade entry line. I can't see it getting to test that high today though but do bare that moving average in mind for the rest of this week.
U.S. inflation data due later at 12:30 (remember the clock change) is likely to inject more volatility, even if investors see the Fed prioritising financial stability. The forecast is for a slight dip to 6% and 5.5% Core YoY.
So expect another volatile day as more banking news plays out. Stay nimble and manage the risk! Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th March 2023

Asia's share markets slid on Tuesday, with financial stocks in Tokyo leading losses as fear of a U.S. banking crisis had investors fleeing the sector and slashing the interest rate outlook even ahead of U.S. inflation data due later in the day.

The crisis has seen traders alter their outlook for interest rates, with many betting the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at all at their meeting next week in an attempt to ease pressure on the banking sector.

Mr Biden said investors would lose their money following their collapses in the last few days, adding that they took a risk and "that's how capitalism works". He insisted "no losses will be borne by the taxpayers" and called on Congress and regulators to "strengthen rules" on banks after the failures.

Well that was quite the drop off the 7740 backtest level yesterday as fear rules the roost for the moment as the bankers have messed up once again. Initially today we have decent support at the 7520 level as mentioned yesterday with the daily 200ema here. I would like to see this hold, though we could get an overshoot down to the 7500 level where we have the bottom of the 10d Raff channel. The 20d Raff channel is just above this too. Can these hold a test today?

Below the 7500 level then the bears will keep the momentum going as they seize their moment. The various platitudes from POTUS, Fed etc are failing to really calm anything, and even HSBC buying SVB UK for a quid hasn't really had any effect (though they are of course pumping £2bn in in reality). The next level to be tested would be S1 at 7464, and the slide will just continue really below that.... 7383 for S2.

Be very cautious with longs, if they start to bounce then you can always add to your stake of course. The momentum is still firmly down for the time being. That said, we did get a decent bounce on the S&P500 yesterday from the 3810 level, and if they can defend 3855 today we may well see some optimism creep back in. The doom and gloom and massive fear usually lasts for a few days before the brave bulls start dipping their toes back in to buy the dip!

Shorting the rallies last week was certainly the right call! Those calls for 8200 that we could hear being shouted were well off the mark, as per usual. We will have the reverse shortly with calls for 7000 and that will be the time to get long!

For the resistance levels to keep an eye on today, the first main one is the daily pivot at 7610 and I can potentially see a rise to this maybe first thing if this climb off the first test of 7520 continues. Above 7610 then 7720 is the 30m 200ema and the next main area I would be looking at. That is also just above R1 at 7692 for today.

We are still due a test of the daily 25ema at 7830 since that daily chart went bearish last week and this 25ema can be a decent swing trade entry line. I can't see it getting to test that high today though but do bare that moving average in mind for the rest of this week.

U.S. inflation data due later at 12:30 (remember the clock change) is likely to inject more volatility, even if investors see the Fed prioritising financial stability. The forecast is for a slight dip to 6% and 5.5% Core YoY.

So expect another volatile day as more banking news plays out. Stay nimble and manage the risk! Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates