Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionBoris resigns | Takes the wallpap …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

Boris resigns | Takes the wallpaper | dip and rise | 7150 7120 7096 support | 7199 7255 resistance

#1 · 7th July 2022, 9:57 am

Quote from Nick on 7th July 2022, 9:57 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
UK markets largely shrugged off the chaos in Westminster, though investors are likely gearing up for more turmoil ahead. Boris Johnson is clinging on to power despite a wave of Government resignations, but markets have largely priced in his exit after a series of scandals.
The pound dropped to more than two-year lows but the moves were largely driven by a rally in the dollar as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid fears of a recession.
The FTSE 100 gained 1.3pc, clawing back some of yesterday's losses. Some analysts attributed this to hopes of more spending under new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, but the gains were in line with broader markets.
Oil prices dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time since April amid fears a looming recession will hurt demand. Benchmark Brent crude dipped below the milestone to its lowest since April 25. That came after it dropped $10 on Tuesday in its third-largest fall ever in dollar terms. West Texas Intermediate was trading at around $98 a barrel after shedding 2pc.
Renewed recession fears have sparked a sell-off in commodities, with oil facing additional pressure from worries that high prices will hit demand.
The technology sector lifted Asian stocks on Thursday, the dollar dipped and oil stabilized as the prevailing concerns in markets about high inflation and the risk of recession eased a little.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index added more than 0.5%, aided by a rally in chipmakers after a positive reception for Samsung Electronics Co.’s results. US and European futures were in the green following gains on Wall Street.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up from a two-month low and rose 0.3% in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.7%. The Australian and New Zealand dollars scraped themselves from two-year lows.
S&P 500 futures were flat. Overnight the index rose 0.4% and Treasuries dropped as traders grappled with generally positive U.S. economic data, with solid job openings, and hawkish minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. data showed job openings higher than expected and the services sector holding up. The next big data point is on Friday when broader labour market numbers can provide a fuller picture of the state of the world’s biggest economy.
Inflation Versus Growth
The Federal Reserve’s June minutes showed officials solidified their resolve to keep raising interest rates to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched, even if that slows the US economy. The trade-off between getting inflation under control and risking economic activity remains the dominant theme globally and in markets. The minutes spurred yet more swings on US sovereign bonds, sending yields higher.
China Tensions
Tensions between China and the US are simmering. China’s foreign ministry accused the US of “technological terrorism” in pushing to stop ASML Holding and Nikon from selling key chipmaking technology to the country, calling Washington’s lobbying “yet another example of the US practice of coercive diplomacy by abusing state power and wielding technological hegemony.’’ Meantime, in a rare joint appearance with his UK counterpart, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray warned China may be taking lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to insulate itself from economic repercussions if it invades Taiwan, according to the Washington Post. An earlier advisory from US intelligence officials said China’s government is seeking to exploit years of business and cultural relations with US state and local leaders to further its geopolitical and military objectives.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 7th July 2022
We spent yesterday bouncing between 7100 and 7200 as the bulls fought back from Tuesday's rout. As such, the bulls and bears now need to break those two levels to push one way or the other. The bulls will be aiming to target the 7250 or higher level, while the bears will be aiming for 7000 again. Initially today we may well see a dip down to test the 7120/7130 support area and if the bulls can defend this then a rise back up towards 7200 later on.
The 2h chart is now bullish once again with 7121 as Hull support, along with a now green 30m coral at 7135, tying in with the daily pivot at 7140.
The S&P bulls will be keen to defend the 3811 S1 level, and also the 3820 200ema just above that. They will be looking for a break above the 3900 level today though.
If the S&P does rise towards that and pushes higher then we should see the FTSE100 come up with it. It's largely shaking off the political shambles that is rumbling on, with the market liking the new chancellor and proposed tax cuts. Funny old world...
If the bears break below the 7120 level then 7096 is the key fib and ties in with the recent range, and then below that they will be looking at 7078, 7050, and ultimately S2 at 7007. A break of 7000 will get things pretty bearish again, and will only do that if the S&P drops below the 3800 level in which case everything will look pretty bearish again.
With the oil price holding around the $100 level now, that will help cool inflation in the short term, and it would be good to see some further drops down to $90. Not that long ago they couldn't give it away with a barrel at -$40!
So for today I am looking at another initial drop off the 7200 level to test the 2h support at the 7120 area then a rise back. It does feel like the bulls are making a bit of a concerted effort again after the recent mauling, and the same in the USA with the S&P wanting to push towards 3900.
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

UK markets largely shrugged off the chaos in Westminster, though investors are likely gearing up for more turmoil ahead. Boris Johnson is clinging on to power despite a wave of Government resignations, but markets have largely priced in his exit after a series of scandals.

The pound dropped to more than two-year lows but the moves were largely driven by a rally in the dollar as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid fears of a recession.

The FTSE 100 gained 1.3pc, clawing back some of yesterday's losses. Some analysts attributed this to hopes of more spending under new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, but the gains were in line with broader markets.

Oil prices dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time since April amid fears a looming recession will hurt demand. Benchmark Brent crude dipped below the milestone to its lowest since April 25. That came after it dropped $10 on Tuesday in its third-largest fall ever in dollar terms. West Texas Intermediate was trading at around $98 a barrel after shedding 2pc.

Renewed recession fears have sparked a sell-off in commodities, with oil facing additional pressure from worries that high prices will hit demand.

The technology sector lifted Asian stocks on Thursday, the dollar dipped and oil stabilized as the prevailing concerns in markets about high inflation and the risk of recession eased a little.

MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index added more than 0.5%, aided by a rally in chipmakers after a positive reception for Samsung Electronics Co.’s results. US and European futures were in the green following gains on Wall Street.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up from a two-month low and rose 0.3% in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.7%. The Australian and New Zealand dollars scraped themselves from two-year lows.

S&P 500 futures were flat. Overnight the index rose 0.4% and Treasuries dropped as traders grappled with generally positive U.S. economic data, with solid job openings, and hawkish minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting.

The U.S. data showed job openings higher than expected and the services sector holding up. The next big data point is on Friday when broader labour market numbers can provide a fuller picture of the state of the world’s biggest economy.

Inflation Versus Growth
The Federal Reserve’s June minutes showed officials solidified their resolve to keep raising interest rates to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched, even if that slows the US economy. The trade-off between getting inflation under control and risking economic activity remains the dominant theme globally and in markets. The minutes spurred yet more swings on US sovereign bonds, sending yields higher.

China Tensions
Tensions between China and the US are simmering. China’s foreign ministry accused the US of “technological terrorism” in pushing to stop ASML Holding and Nikon from selling key chipmaking technology to the country, calling Washington’s lobbying “yet another example of the US practice of coercive diplomacy by abusing state power and wielding technological hegemony.’’ Meantime, in a rare joint appearance with his UK counterpart, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray warned China may be taking lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to insulate itself from economic repercussions if it invades Taiwan, according to the Washington Post. An earlier advisory from US intelligence officials said China’s government is seeking to exploit years of business and cultural relations with US state and local leaders to further its geopolitical and military objectives.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 7th July 2022

We spent yesterday bouncing between 7100 and 7200 as the bulls fought back from Tuesday's rout. As such, the bulls and bears now need to break those two levels to push one way or the other. The bulls will be aiming to target the 7250 or higher level, while the bears will be aiming for 7000 again. Initially today we may well see a dip down to test the 7120/7130 support area and if the bulls can defend this then a rise back up towards 7200 later on.

The 2h chart is now bullish once again with 7121 as Hull support, along with a now green 30m coral at 7135, tying in with the daily pivot at 7140.

The S&P bulls will be keen to defend the 3811 S1 level, and also the 3820 200ema just above that. They will be looking for a break above the 3900 level today though.

If the S&P does rise towards that and pushes higher then we should see the FTSE100 come up with it. It's largely shaking off the political shambles that is rumbling on, with the market liking the new chancellor and proposed tax cuts. Funny old world...

If the bears break below the 7120 level then 7096 is the key fib and ties in with the recent range, and then below that they will be looking at 7078, 7050, and ultimately S2 at 7007. A break of 7000 will get things pretty bearish again, and will only do that if the S&P drops below the 3800 level in which case everything will look pretty bearish again.

With the oil price holding around the $100 level now, that will help cool inflation in the short term, and it would be good to see some further drops down to $90. Not that long ago they couldn't give it away with a barrel at -$40!

So for today I am looking at another initial drop off the 7200 level to test the 2h support at the 7120 area then a rise back. It does feel like the bulls are making a bit of a concerted effort again after the recent mauling, and the same in the USA with the S&P wanting to push towards 3900.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates