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BoE interest rates today 4.5% | 7786 7823 7865 resistance |7733 7695 support

#1 · 11th May 2023, 9:03 am

Quote from Nick on 11th May 2023, 9:03 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 11th May 2023
The FTSE 100 has closed 0.42pc lower at 7,732.09. The index slipped on Wednesday as strength in sterling weighed on dollar earners. Sterling rallied to a one-year high versus the dollar before shedding gains.
Policymakers are expected on Thursday to lift the benchmark rate for the twelfth straight time to 4.5pc, from 4.25pc.
Asian shares rose on Thursday as investors cheered signs of easing inflationary pressure in the U.S. after data showed consumer prices in April rose at a slower-than-expected pace. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago, compared with expectations of a 5% increase, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. Month-over-month CPI in April rose 0.4% after gaining 0.1% in March.
And today's primary focus will be the BoE and the highly likely chance of another 25bps rate rise to take interest rates in the UK to 4.5%. Inflation is nearly double the USA figures here so whilst the Fed may be tempted to pause increases, it's less likely for the BoE.
As such we may well see any rise this morning get sold into, especially if it manages to get to the 7785 resistance area early on. We also have 7763 for the 200ema on the 30m alone with the 2h red coral here, and also another test of the Hull MA, as lower resistance.
The daily chart has also now locked in bearishness with 7786 resistance from the moving average and as such this is the key level that the bulls will need to break. This level may well also see some swing short bears enter the market.
Above 7786 the bulls will be looking to break 7800 and a test of R2 & the 10 day Raff channel top at 7823. Higher up we still have the daily resistance area at 7860, though that might be a big ask for today!
The bears meanwhile will be looking to break yesterdays low at 7696 as that would likely open up a slide down to the 7650 daily support area, along with S2 for today. That said, I think that should we revisit the 7695 level, and now with S1 here for today, this level should see a bounce.
The BoE rate decision is at 12:00 today so expect a bit of volatility then.
For the S&P500, the 4130 level is the key support that the bulls will want to defend today. We have a few decent supports here, namely the Hull MA on the 2h, but also the daily pivot, 30m coral and just above the 200ema at 4125. As such, if it drops to here then a bounce would fit well. Resistance wise, the 4165 level is first up with the key fib and R1 here, then 4191 above that. With R2 and the top of both the Raff channels, this level looks to be the key one for the bulls to break now. Shorting this is also therefore worth a go.
Good luck today, and don't forget the rate news at midday.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 11th May 2023

The FTSE 100 has closed 0.42pc lower at 7,732.09. The index slipped on Wednesday as strength in sterling weighed on dollar earners. Sterling rallied to a one-year high versus the dollar before shedding gains.

Policymakers are expected on Thursday to lift the benchmark rate for the twelfth straight time to 4.5pc, from 4.25pc.

Asian shares rose on Thursday as investors cheered signs of easing inflationary pressure in the U.S. after data showed consumer prices in April rose at a slower-than-expected pace. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago, compared with expectations of a 5% increase, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. Month-over-month CPI in April rose 0.4% after gaining 0.1% in March.

And today's primary focus will be the BoE and the highly likely chance of another 25bps rate rise to take interest rates in the UK to 4.5%. Inflation is nearly double the USA figures here so whilst the Fed may be tempted to pause increases, it's less likely for the BoE.

As such we may well see any rise this morning get sold into, especially if it manages to get to the 7785 resistance area early on. We also have 7763 for the 200ema on the 30m alone with the 2h red coral here, and also another test of the Hull MA, as lower resistance.

The daily chart has also now locked in bearishness with 7786 resistance from the moving average and as such this is the key level that the bulls will need to break. This level may well also see some swing short bears enter the market.

Above 7786 the bulls will be looking to break 7800 and a test of R2 & the 10 day Raff channel top at 7823. Higher up we still have the daily resistance area at 7860, though that might be a big ask for today!

The bears meanwhile will be looking to break yesterdays low at 7696 as that would likely open up a slide down to the 7650 daily support area, along with S2 for today. That said, I think that should we revisit the 7695 level, and now with S1 here for today, this level should see a bounce.

The BoE rate decision is at 12:00 today so expect a bit of volatility then.

For the S&P500, the 4130 level is the key support that the bulls will want to defend today. We have a few decent supports here, namely the Hull MA on the 2h, but also the daily pivot, 30m coral and just above the 200ema at 4125. As such, if it drops to here then a bounce would fit well. Resistance wise, the 4165 level is first up with the key fib and R1 here, then 4191 above that. With R2 and the top of both the Raff channels, this level looks to be the key one for the bulls to break now. Shorting this is also therefore worth a go.

Good luck today, and don't forget the rate news at midday.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates