Quote from Nick on 1st May 2020, 8:52 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st May 2020

A recap of yesterday's main events:

• The ECB held rates and launched new measures to support lender liquidity
• In his first press conference in more than a month, Boris Johnson said that a "comprehensive plan" to restart the economy will be revealed next week ​
• European shares drop after the ECB's announcement and finished firmly in the red
• The Eurozone economy slumped 3.8pc in first quarter
• Shell cuts dividend for first time since WW2
• Lloyds's profit were nearly wiped out by loan-loss provisions

European indices fell sharply after two straights days of gains.The FTSE 100 closed at 5901.21, down 214 points or 3.50%, dropping off the 10 day Raff channel at 6206 quite significantly. The S&P managed to test the 2970 level a couple of times but failed in its efforts to push towards 3000, instead shedding 100 points. The FTSE 100 is now at its daily support at 5806 and the bulls will be keen to defend this first thing, especially as we may well see an initial rise as the new month money flows in.

Several European markets are closed today for the May Day holiday, including the Dax.

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

U.S. futures slid along with Japanese and Australian shares, and the dollar climbed, after sobering comments from Amazon and Apple about the impact of the coronavirus.

First of the month so we "may" get an initial kick up first thing with some new month money, and we are sat on the daily 25ema at 5806 as I write this. However, any bounce will be short-lived I feel as I think having dropped off the top of the Raff Channel at 6206 yesterday (quite significantly in fact!) the bears are sharpening their claws. The bulls will really need to get the price back above the 200ema at 5934 to avert disaster for the moment.

So, if that 5800 holds initially, and some new month money flows in I am looking at a rise towards 5879 to start with, which is a backtest of the fib support broken overnight. Should the bulls get above this then 5900 is the 30min coral, now red, and then the 200ema as mentioned at 5933. If they were to go for it, highly unlikely though, on a Friday and with Europe closed, then the 2 hour chart now has resistance at 6061. I cant see us rising that high today though!

For the bears, if they break below the recent support level of 5790 then we should see a slide down to the bottom of the Raff channels at the 5700 - 5720 level. We also have S1 for today at 5693 so that area is the next one to watch. Not a lot between 5700 and 5800 support wise! S&P has a bit of support at 2850 though, so that may help.

It does feel like the market has topped out for the moment, and maybe had sucked in enough retail clients with that rise and the positive headlines. Just when everyone thought it was safe to check their pensions/SIPPS/ISAs again!

Friday caution advised! Good luck and have a great weekend.

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