Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionBears on the back foot with suppo …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

Bears on the back foot with support 7511 7492 7463 | 7575 7587 7635 resistance

#1 · 19th August 2022, 9:32 am

Quote from Nick on 19th August 2022, 9:32 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 climbed yesterday amid a rally of commodity shares, although gains were limited by fears that rapid policy tightening by the Bank of England to tame inflation will trigger a recession. The index ended 0.4pc higher, with Chilean miner Antofagasta at the top as copper prices gained on hopes for solid demand in China.
"The Bank of England remains painted into a corner, forced to become increasingly hawkish because of high inflation and a tight labour market, even as the economy rapidly slows," BCA analysts said. "A recession is now unavoidable given the magnitude of the inflation shock, which is leading to a toxic mix of tightening monetary policy and contracting real incomes."
Stocks in Asia pared declines Friday and the dollar was around a one-month high as traders weighed some mixed Federal Reserve policy signals on the likely pace of further interest-rate hikes. Asian shares were left in limbo while the U.S. dollar made all the running as recession clouds gathered over Europe and highlighted the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index reduced losses to about 0.2%, helped by a jump in Chinese technology equities. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures slipped after Wall Street shares posted a small gain on Thursday.
Added concerns about the health of China’s economy saw MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ease 0.3%, to be down 1.1% on the week. Chinese blue chips were flat, while South Korea lost 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei fared better with a 0.3% gain due in part to a renewed slide in the yen.
S&P 500 futures eased 0.1% and were little changed on the week having repeatedly failed to clear the 200-day moving average, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.2%.
The threat of higher borrowing costs hung over markets as no less than four U.S. Federal Reserve officials signalled there was more work to do on interest rates, with the only difference being on how fast and high to go.
Markets are leaning toward a half-point hike in September and a one-in-three chance of 75 basis points (bp). Rates are seen peaking at least 3.5%, though some Fed members are arguing for 4% or more.
The cost-of-living crisis saw British consumer sentiment plunge to its lowest on record in August showed a monthly survey from data provider Gfk.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th August 2022
The bears made a right hash of that yesterday and failed to break 7490, as the bulls fought back to retest the 7560 area late in the day. Initially today we have 2h support at the 7540 level so the bears will need to break below this to retarget the 7500 area and the key fib level at 7492.
They may well get a helping hand from the S&P bears though as on that it looks more bearish, and the bulls failure to move above the 4295 level suggests a slide down to the bottom of the 20d Raff channel at 4240ish.
Below the 7492 level then the next support is at 7463 with S2 here, and also a key daily level, with 7436 S3 below that. Not sure the bears will be able to take it that low if they try but never say never and it is Friday after all (usually weird!)
For the bulls, they will be looking for an initial climb from the 7540 level and a rise towards the 7575 level with 7590 above that with R1 and the key fib there. Higher up we still have that daily level around the 7640 area which is what the bulls will likely be aiming for at the moment. Thats a key level and may well see the bears reappear here in earnest.
The news flow remains pretty pessimistic however that been shaken off pretty well across the board. Inflation in the UK continues to creep up whilst US is levelling off (might be past peak inflation there).
S&P500
It feels like the bears have the upper hand at the moment, and the fair to break above 4300 suggests a slide down towards the 4240 area to test the Raff channel. 4302 is now key 2h resistance. As I write this is sat on the 200ema at 4269 so we may well get an initial kick up from here and a rise to test that 4302 level before a slide back down would fit pretty well. That said, 4280 is initial resistance so we may well see a reaction here. The bulls will be keen to defend if we do slide down towards the 4240 area and we may well then see the late Friday pump from the bulls as per usual.
Good luck today - be slightly more cautious as its Friday! Have a great weekend.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 climbed yesterday amid a rally of commodity shares, although gains were limited by fears that rapid policy tightening by the Bank of England to tame inflation will trigger a recession. The index ended 0.4pc higher, with Chilean miner Antofagasta at the top as copper prices gained on hopes for solid demand in China.

"The Bank of England remains painted into a corner, forced to become increasingly hawkish because of high inflation and a tight labour market, even as the economy rapidly slows," BCA analysts said. "A recession is now unavoidable given the magnitude of the inflation shock, which is leading to a toxic mix of tightening monetary policy and contracting real incomes."

Stocks in Asia pared declines Friday and the dollar was around a one-month high as traders weighed some mixed Federal Reserve policy signals on the likely pace of further interest-rate hikes. Asian shares were left in limbo while the U.S. dollar made all the running as recession clouds gathered over Europe and highlighted the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy.

MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index reduced losses to about 0.2%, helped by a jump in Chinese technology equities. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures slipped after Wall Street shares posted a small gain on Thursday.

Added concerns about the health of China’s economy saw MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ease 0.3%, to be down 1.1% on the week. Chinese blue chips were flat, while South Korea lost 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei fared better with a 0.3% gain due in part to a renewed slide in the yen.

S&P 500 futures eased 0.1% and were little changed on the week having repeatedly failed to clear the 200-day moving average, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.2%.

The threat of higher borrowing costs hung over markets as no less than four U.S. Federal Reserve officials signalled there was more work to do on interest rates, with the only difference being on how fast and high to go.

Markets are leaning toward a half-point hike in September and a one-in-three chance of 75 basis points (bp). Rates are seen peaking at least 3.5%, though some Fed members are arguing for 4% or more.

The cost-of-living crisis saw British consumer sentiment plunge to its lowest on record in August showed a monthly survey from data provider Gfk.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th August 2022

The bears made a right hash of that yesterday and failed to break 7490, as the bulls fought back to retest the 7560 area late in the day. Initially today we have 2h support at the 7540 level so the bears will need to break below this to retarget the 7500 area and the key fib level at 7492.

They may well get a helping hand from the S&P bears though as on that it looks more bearish, and the bulls failure to move above the 4295 level suggests a slide down to the bottom of the 20d Raff channel at 4240ish.

Below the 7492 level then the next support is at 7463 with S2 here, and also a key daily level, with 7436 S3 below that. Not sure the bears will be able to take it that low if they try but never say never and it is Friday after all (usually weird!)

For the bulls, they will be looking for an initial climb from the 7540 level and a rise towards the 7575 level with 7590 above that with R1 and the key fib there. Higher up we still have that daily level around the 7640 area which is what the bulls will likely be aiming for at the moment. Thats a key level and may well see the bears reappear here in earnest.

The news flow remains pretty pessimistic however that been shaken off pretty well across the board. Inflation in the UK continues to creep up whilst US is levelling off (might be past peak inflation there).

S&P500
It feels like the bears have the upper hand at the moment, and the fair to break above 4300 suggests a slide down towards the 4240 area to test the Raff channel. 4302 is now key 2h resistance. As I write this is sat on the 200ema at 4269 so we may well get an initial kick up from here and a rise to test that 4302 level before a slide back down would fit pretty well. That said, 4280 is initial resistance so we may well see a reaction here. The bulls will be keen to defend if we do slide down towards the 4240 area and we may well then see the late Friday pump from the bulls as per usual.

Good luck today - be slightly more cautious as its Friday! Have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates